Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations
Critically, the heavily cited OECD analysis did not account for snow-making. It therefore does not
reflect the operating realities of many ski operators and has likely overestimated the potential damages
to these businesses. Major uncertainties on the impacts for businesses also relate to the acceptance of
customers to ski on partially snow covered ski runs, such as illustrated in Figure 9.2, or the potential for
large reductions in opportunities for Nordic skiing at low mountain elevations.
The winter of 2006-2007 was the warmest on record over most parts of the Alps and estimated to be the
warmest winter in the past millennium in some locations. 284, 285 The impact of this record warm winter
on the ski industry is still being tabulated, but the delayed opening of the season and inability to make
snow in some locations were prominent impacts. Analysis of this climate change analogue will provide
important new information on the ability of ski areas to operate and remain profitable under conditions
similar to those projected decades from now.
Figure 9.2 Partially operating ski area near Salzburg, Austria (mid-January 2007)
Scotland
Photo credit: Stadel, B.
Trends in ski season length at the Cairngorm ski area in Scotland from 1972 to 1996 reveal a shorter
average season, but at the highest elevation ski lift (1,060–1,150 m) there was no change. 286 Based on
an analysis of the exceptionally mild winter of 1988–1989, it has been suggested that ski areas above
1,000 m would still have sufficient natural snow cover for skiing in warmer winters. 287 However, the
warm winter of 1988–1989 was not compared against future climate change scenarios for this region,
so the future operation of ski areas in Scotland remains uncertain.
Eastern North America
Snow-making is integral to the ski industry in Eastern Canada and the US and most ski areas have
virtually complete coverage of their skiable terrain. A second generation of climate change assessments,
which account for snow-making, have substantially improved our understanding of the risk climate
change poses to the ski industry in this region. 288, 289 Advanced snow-making systems substantially
lower the vulnerability of ski areas in eastern North America to climate change at least through the
middle of the 21st century. Ski season losses are projected to range from 8–46% in Ontario and 4–34%
in Quebec depending on the climate change scenario, with high emission scenarios causing much larger
impacts. 290, 291 In New England, with advanced snow-making capabilities, only one of 14 locations
was projected to lose greater than 25% of its ski season under low emission scenarios by mid century.
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