Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations
Societal Change, including impacts of economic disruption and political instability
“Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and
social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the
great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century.”
The Stern Review (2006)
Climate change is thought to pose a risk to future economic growth and to the political stability of
some nations. 239, 240, 241, 242 Although not without debate 243 , the Stern Review is generally considered
to be the most comprehensive assessment of the economics of global climate change. It concluded
that although a rise of only 1° C might benefit global GDP, greater climate change would eventually
damage economic growth at the global scale, including the stark conclusion that if we do nothing to
stem climate change, there could be an eventual permanent reduction in consumption per capita of
20% later in the 21st century or early 22nd century. 244 These costs would not be shared evenly, with
a disproportionate burden falling on the poorest countries. The uneven distribution of climate change
burdens raises questions of international and intergeneration fairness and justice. Anthropogenic climate
change has been brought about predominantly by the activities of developed countries, while some of
the most acute impacts will fall on developing countries. 245, 246, 247, 248 As noted previously, many such
developing countries are likely to have a low adaptive capacity and therefore an inability to adapt to or
manage these impacts of climate change in an effective way.
The Stern Review notes that tackling climate change is a pro-growth strategy for the longer term, with
the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweighing the costs of inaction. Any reductions
of global GDP due to climate change would likely have negative implications for anticipated future
growth in tourism spending, however there has been no in depth interpretation of the Stern Review 249
for the tourism sector.
“If climate protection policy fails (mitigation) […] it is likely that from the mid 21st century local
and regional conflicts will proliferate and the international system will be destabilized, threatening
global economic development and overstretching global governance structures.”
German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007)
Climate change is considered a national and international security risk that will steadily intensify,
particularly under greater warming scenarios. 250, 251, 252, 253 Regional climate change impacts such
as degradation of fresh water resources, declining food production, increased storm related disasters,
and trans-boundary environmental migration could overwhelm local capacities to respond and result
in violence and the destabilization of fragile governments. Climate change associated security risks
have been identified in a number of regions where tourism is highly important to local-national
economies: Caribbean and Central America, Mediterranean North Africa, and China.
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254, 255, 256, 257,
258 A security-related decline in tourism would exacerbate deteriorating of economic performance in
these destinations.
There is crucial interdependence between tourism, economies, community livelihoods and the
environment, and climate change is likely to undermine development objectives in many developing
countries. 259, 260, 261, 262, 263, 264 Most developing nations do not have sufficient human, financial and
technical capital to effectively address climate change, particularly those countries with a wide range of
existing socio-economic and environmental challenges. The more dramatic impacts of climate change
(including flood, drought, risk of unstable food security, decrease in public health and disease, and
loss of biodiversity) will increase the vulnerability of already vulnerable regions potentially resulting in
increased poverty.
Factors such as widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, a dependence on natural resources and
biodiversity make sub-Saharan Africa more acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than