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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations turn, impact on tourism by affecting, for example, the levels or the very existence of endemic species, animal populations, birdsong, the flowering of plants, coral reef, and the type and cover of forests. 219, 220, 221, 222 See additional discussion on biodiversity impacts on natural and cultural heritage in Section 9.1.4. Landscape aesthetics, the presence of natural hazards and the extent of damage to infrastructure will be affected by climate-induced environmental change in a number of ways; e.g., flooding, coastal erosion, desertification, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events such as hurricanes and tropical storms, and changes in geomorphology. For example, future climate change has the potential to increase significantly the nature, frequency and magnitude of natural hazards in mountain regions via the processes of glacier retreat and the melting of permafrost. 223, 224, 225 Because glaciers are coupled to their slope and valley-floor, retreat impacts upon these in a number of complex ways including heightened risk of rockfalls, glacial lake outburst floods, large-scale debris flow events and increasingly dynamic valley floors that are susceptible to deep and rapid river entrenchment. These form significant natural hazards which in many glaciated mountain regions of the world increase the vulnerability of destinations and socio-economic infrastructure in such regions. Furthermore, recent research has shown that mountain slopes underlain by permafrost are at high risk of future instability with climate warming. 226, 227 The health status of millions of people will be impacted by projected climate change-related exposures, particularly those regions with a low adaptive capacity. 228 Countries identified as having the lowest adaptive capacity are predominantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, and developing countries in Asia and Central Asia, with regions experiencing conflict situations and small-island states also included in this category. 229, 230 Direct impacts from extreme weather events and environmental change will have consequences on morbidity and mortality, but the indirect impacts may be more significant. The greatest impacts are likely to be caused by proportionally small increases in diseases that currently have major impacts already, but which will become more widely prevalent, such as diarrhoea, malnutrition and vectorborne diseases. 231, 232 Though some of the regions most severely impacted are not, on a world scale, major tourist destinations when the number of trips is considered (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa), it must be recognized that tourism can be of a significant importance to their economy and their communities’ livelihoods. The ability of some destinations to provide tourist facilities, services and products will be compromised by these indirect impacts from climate change. Alterations in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases are anticipated, so that diseases such as malaria (Figure 9.1), dengue fever, viral encephalitis and Lyme disease are projected to occur in regions where they have been previously unknown. Potential disease transmission rates may increase substantially for diseases such as malaria (P. falciparum – Figure 9.1), where the risk of transmission is projected to double in across Western Europe and Eastern United States by the 2020s and large parts of central Asia, Mexico and regions of South America by the 2050s. 233 These developments will compromise infrastructures in some destinations, and their ability to cater adequately for tourism, as well affecting tourists themselves who will be exposed to new risks when travelling. 65
66 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges Figure 9.1 Future transmission potential for the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum relative to the baseline period (1970s = 1, doubling = 2) (a) 2020s 2050s (a) HadCM3 climate change scenario (monthly mean temperature and precipitation) for the 2020s and 2050s Source: Martens, P. et al (1999) Climate change is also expected to have some impacts on food production that will have subsequent implications for tourism. Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease at even small temperature increases (1–2° C) in developing nations, particularly those at lower latitudes. 234 Adverse impacts on food supplies would risk increases in nutritional deficits, gastro-intestinal infections and psychological stresses, placing additional burdens on local health services 235 , with consequent impacts on all sectors, including tourism. Other shifts in agricultural production will not affect the health of local populations or the ability to supply the local tourism industry, but rather affect the attractiveness of destinations for specific tourism markets. A primary example is the impact of climate change on wine production, particularly high-quality vintages, and the implications for wine tourism. Wine grapes have acute environmental sensitivity and there are indications that climate change is already affecting the taste of wines from some regions. Regions that are currently producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their optimal climatic zone may be thrust into a climate that is no longer suited to the grapes now grown. Areas of France, Australia and California that are renowned for high-quality wines are projected to see grape growing conditions impaired by mid to late-century. 236, 237 Conversely other more pole ward wine growing regions (Southern England, southern New Zealand, southern British Columbia Canada) are projected to be able to produce higher-quality vintages and may benefit from a shift in wine tourism over time. 238 UNWTO, 9 July 2008
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