Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations
of the USA). In contrast, lower winter ratings in Mexico suggest it could become less competitive as a
winter sun-and-sea destination.
Similarly, significant shifts in tourism climate suitability patterns have been projected for Europe towards
the end of the 21st century 201 , and these will alter the push-pull factors influencing decisions about
tourist destinations. The Mediterranean region is projected to become much less attractive for tourism
in summer and more attractive in spring and autumn. Simultaneously, the traditional source regions of
the majority of tourists to the Mediterranean, particularly Northern Europe, are projected to themselves
become more suitable for tourist activities year round, particularly in the summer. As a result it seems
likely that more of these travellers might opt to stay within their own region at this time, as well as more
people travelling from southerly regions to Northern Europe during the summer months to escape hot
summer temperatures in the Mediterranean. 202 The implications of projected changes in the tourism
climate resource over the 21st for intra- and inter-regional travel demand are discussed in more detail
in Chapter 10.
Another direct business impact of climate change on tourism would be changes in seasonal operating
costs, such as heating and cooling, snow-making, irrigation and water supply and annual insurance
costs. Although the energy expenses of the accommodation sector vary by location and by type of
accommodation, it has been estimated that energy costs expressed in terms of gross hotel revenues
typically range from 3–6%, but can be as high as 10% for some historic and luxury hotels. 203 A large
portion of overall energy consumption in the accommodation sector is related to space heating-cooling
204 and therefore changes in heating-cooling degree-days have considerable implications for energy
costs in some regions.
Table 9.2 illustrates the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days (HDD and CDD) in two
important tourism destinations in Canada under a moderate climate change scenario. In temperate
destinations like Canada the implications for energy costs will be mixed, with reduced heating costs but
increased cooling costs. In warmer climates the cost implications are likely to be unidirectional towards
increased cooling costs.
Table 9.2 Projected changes in heating- and cooling degree days (a) relative to 1961–1990 (%)
Destination 2040–2069 2070–2099
HDD CDD HDD CDD
Toronto-Niagara Falls –23 +239 –35 +478
Vancouver-Whistler –29 +82 –42 +161
(a) Degree-days are the accumulated departures of temperature above or below a particular threshold value. In this analysis 18° C is
used as an indication of space heating or cooling requirements.
Source: Scott, D. and Jones, B. (2006a)
A third direct impact of changes in climate is weather extremes. The IPCC 205 has concluded that changes
in a number of weather extremes are probable as a result of projected climate change, including: higher
maximum temperature and more hot days over nearly all land areas (very likely), greater tropical storm
intensity and peak winds (likely), more intense precipitation events over many land areas (very likely),
and longer and more severe droughts in many mid-latitude continental interiors (likely). Increased
tropical storm intensity would affect the tourism industry through increased infrastructure damage,
additional emergency preparedness planning, higher operating expenses (e.g., insurance, backup water
and power systems, and evacuations), and business interruptions.
Indirect impacts from environmental change
Because environmental and climatic conditions are such a critical resource for tourism, any subsequent
changes will have an inescapable effect on the industry. Changes in water availability, snow cover,
the loss in biodiversity at destination level, degradation of the aesthetics of destination landscapes,
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