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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Advances in Climate Change Science and Implications for the Tourism Sector Figure 8.6 IPCC representation of anticipated regional climate change Source: IPCC 2007a Australia and New Zealand Warming is likely to be larger than that of the surrounding oceans, but comparable to the global mean. The warming is less in the south, especially in winter, with the warming in the South Island of New Zealand likely to remain less than the global mean. Precipitation is likely to decrease in southern Australia in winter and spring. Precipitation is very likely to decrease in south-western Australia in winter. Precipitation is likely to increase in the west of the South Island of New Zealand. Changes in rainfall in northern and central Australia are uncertain. Increased mean wind speed is likely across the South Island of New Zealand, particularly in winter. Increased frequency of extreme high daily temperatures in Australia and New Zealand, and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes is very likely. Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase, except possibly in areas of significant 57
58 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges decrease in mean rainfall (southern Australia in winter and spring). Increased risk of drought in southern areas of Australia is likely (Figure 8.6). Polar regions The Arctic is very likely to warm during this century more than the global mean. Warming is projected to be largest in winter and smallest in summer. Annual arctic precipitation is very likely to increase. It is very likely that the relative precipitation increase will be largest in winter and smallest in summer. Arctic sea ice is very likely to decrease in its extent and thickness. It is uncertain how the Arctic Ocean circulation will change. The Antarctic is likely to warm and the precipitation is likely to increase over the continent. It is uncertain to what extent the frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation events will change in the polar regions (Figure 8.6). Small islands Sea levels are likely to rise on average during the century around the small islands of the Caribbean Sea, Indian Ocean and northern and southern Pacific Oceans. The rise will likely not be geographically uniform but large deviations among models make regional estimates across the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans uncertain. All Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North and South Pacific islands are very likely to warm during this century. The warming is likely to be somewhat smaller than the global annual mean. Summer rainfall in the Caribbean is likely to decrease in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles but changes elsewhere and in winter are uncertain. Annual rainfall is likely to increase in the northern Indian Ocean with increases likely in the vicinity of the Seychelles in December, January and February, and in the vicinity of the Maldives in June, July and August, while decreases are likely in the vicinity of Mauritius in June, July and August (Figure 8.6). Annual rainfall is likely to increase in the equatorial Pacific, while decreases are projected by most models for just east of French Polynesia in December and January. 8.4 Conclusion “Climate change will constitute an increasing risk for tourism operators in many destinations. With many tourism activities heavily dependent on the climate and insurance policies increasingly affected by natural hazards, accurate weather information and forecasting of extreme climatic events are becoming ever more important for tourism businesses.” UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Francesco Frangialli, UNWTO Secretary-General (2005) The use of weather and climate information in the tourism sector is on the rise, but there are still large opportunities to enhance decision-making in the sector with existing meteorological information and by developing new tailored forecast products. 190, 191 The importance of utilizing available weather and climate information will only increase in an era of climate change. Improving the use of weather and climate information in the tourism sector is a challenge that will require closer collaboration between the climate and tourism research communities, national meteorological services, tourism authorities and the tourism industry. The recent collaboration between the WMO and UNWTO to establish an Expert Team on Climate and Tourism is an important initiative to facilitate this collaboration at an international level. In addition, mechanisms such as Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) provide an opportunity to extend multidisciplinary training and awareness building at regional and national levels. RCOFs are held regularly in a number of regions around the world and foster direct interaction between climate prediction specialists and user groups, including the tourism sector, in the development of consensus-based regional climate predictions and related product.
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