Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

•
•
•
•
•
•
UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Advances in Climate Change Science and Implications for the Tourism Sector
“Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over
the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean” 184
Observed decreases in snow cover are projected to continue.
“It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to
become more frequent.” 185
“It is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense,
with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of
tropical sea surface temperatures. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in
numbers of tropical cyclones.” 186
“Extratropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in wind,
precipitation and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the
last half-century.” 187
“There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features,
including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice.” 188
8.3.4 Regional Climate Change in the 21st Century
Future changes in temperatures and other important features of climate will manifest themselves
differently across the regions of the world. Very concise summaries of the current understanding of how
regional climates may change have been developed by the IPCC 189 and are provided below.
Africa
Warming is very likely to be more significant than the global annual mean warming throughout the
continent and in all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warming more than the moister tropics.
Annual rainfall is likely to decrease in much of Mediterranean Africa and the northern Sahara, with a
greater likelihood of decreasing rainfall as the Mediterranean coast is approached. Rainfall in southern
Africa is likely to decrease in much of the winter rainfall region and western margins (Figure 8.6). There
is likely to be an increase in annual mean rainfall in East Africa. It is unclear how rainfall in the Sahel,
the Guinean Coast and the southern Sahara will evolve.
Mediterranean and Europe
Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. Seasonally,
the largest warming is likely to be in northern Europe in winter and in the Mediterranean area in
summer. Minimum winter temperatures are likely to increase more than the average in northern Europe.
Maximum summer temperatures are likely to increase more than the average in southern and central
Europe. Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern Europe and decrease in most
of the Mediterranean area. In central Europe, precipitation is likely to increase in winter but decrease
in summer. Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase in northern Europe. The annual
number of precipitation days is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean area. Risk of summer
drought is likely to increase in central Europe and in the Mediterranean area. The duration of the snow
season is very likely to shorten, and snow depth is likely to decrease in most of Europe (Figure 8.6).
55