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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Advances in Climate Change Science and Implications for the Tourism Sector Figure 8.4 Recorded changes in global average temperature since 1850 Source: IPCC 2007a 8.3.2 Human Influence on Climate Change “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90% probability) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” 176 Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns. 177 Box 4 The language of uncertainty in the IPCC AR4 178 Assessments of climate change science by the IPCC have always recognized the importance of communicating uncertainties to policy makers. In the AR4 Working Group II on impacts and adaptation, the following terms were used to indicate ‘degree of confidence in being correct’ and ‘likelihood of occurrence’, as based on the collective judgment of the authors using the observational evidence, modeling results, and theory that they have examined. Terminology for degree of confidence in being correct • Very high confidence At least 9 out of 10 chance • High confidence About 8 out of 10 chance • Medium confidence About 5 out of 10 chance • Low confidence About 2 out of 10 chance • Very low confidence Less than 1 out of 10 chance 53
54 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges Terminology for likelihood of the occurrence/outcome • Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence • Very likely > 90% probability • Likely > 66% probability • About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability • Unlikely < 33% probability • Very unlikely < 10% probability • Exceptionally unlikely < 1% probability In AR4 WG 3 on emissions and mitigation, another language was used, combining the level of expert agreement and the amount of evidence (scientific publications) on a specific question. These two factors were combined into a qualitative matrix of uncertainty shown in Figure 8.5 Since human choices were more involved in a mitigation perspective, the concepts of ‘likelihood’ and ‘confidence’ used in WG 2 appeared less suitable to Working Group 3. Figure 8.5 Qualitative definitions of uncertainty in Working Group 3 Level of agreement (on a particular finding) Source: IPCC 2007c UNWTO, 9 July 2008 High agreement, limited evidence Medium agreement, limited evidence Low agreement, limited evidence High agreement, medium evidence Medium agreement, medium evidence Low agreement, medium evidence High agreement, much evidence Medium agreement, much evidence Low agreement, much evidence Amount of evidence (number and quality of independent sources) 8.3.3 Global Climate Change in the 21st Century The recently completed AR4 179 highlighted the following key global scale climate changes that are projected to take place over the 21st century): • • • • “For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2° C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.” 180 Figure 8.2 shows that based on the SRES emission scenarios the best estimate is that global average temperatures would increase 1.8° C to 4° C by 2100. There are two notable caveats to this estimate. First, the recent growth of emissions 181 is on a trajectory that exceeds the most pessimistic of SRES scenarios. Second, there is a risk of feedbacks in the climate system that may increase warming. 182 Models used to date do not include uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedback nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow. 183 There is no historical analogue to indicate what might happen with such a rapid warming over current temperatures. The temperature increase in the 21st century represents only 50 to 90% of the eventual warming that could result from SRES emission scenarios. The level at which temperatures eventually stabilize depends on how fast GHG emissions will be reduced.
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