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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Advances in Climate Change Science and Implications for the Tourism Sector Figure 8.2 Scenarios for global temperature in the 21st century Source: IPCC 2007a Stabilization scenarios also explore a wide range of future GHG conditions, typically ranging from atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 450 ppm to 1000 ppm (current levels are estimated at 380 ppm). Some stabilization scenarios can be considered proxies for ‘policy scenarios’ because they are very near to the objectives of some governments in developed countries: they imply that emissions per unit of GDP would need to be just one quarter of current level by 2050. 166 Such stabilisation scenarios require very ambitious GHG reductions policies to control energy demand, produce carbon neutral energy, capture and store CO 2 from energy production. Analogues Another approach to describe what future climate conditions might be like is to refer to similar conditions when they occurred in the past. This approach facilitates more effective communication with some audiences. For example, one can point out that if global average temperatures were approximately 5° C cooler, then climate conditions would resemble those during the last ice age and that the changes we may witness by the end of the 21st century are of a similar magnitude but in the opposite direction. Another example is the European heat wave of 2003, which is an analogue for average summer temperature conditions the region might face in the later decades of this century. Under certain climate change scenarios the annual mean temperature of Paris would be near to that of Toledo now (Figure 8.3). 167 The use of climate analogues assumes that major climate processes remain stable, whereas unprecedented CO 2 concentrations associated with high GHG emission scenarios may trigger new and uncertain climate processes. 168 49
50 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges Figure 8.3 Spatial climate analogue for European cities for 2100 (a) (a) Map of Europe and Mediterranean basin, with a few cities at the location of their future climate analogue, i.e. a location that presently enjoys a climate close to their future climate. The model used is Hadley Centre HafRM3H model. Source: Hallegatte, S. et al (2005) The use of climate analogues is a promising avenue for exploring the potential impacts of climate change on tourism. Anomalous weather events can be studied to learn the behavioural response of tourists, how successful climate adaptations by tourism operators were, the extent of economic impacts, the recovery period for visitation, and identify additional adaptation measures that might be required by the tourism industry and government. This approach offers some advantages over other research approaches because it focuses on the observed responses of the entire tourism marketplace to real climatic conditions, and captures the integrated effects of simultaneous supply and demand-side adaptations. Climate analogues have been successfully applied in other fields of research, but remain under utilized in the tourism sector. 8.2.1 Regional and Local Climate Change: Why Downscaling is Critical for Tourism Tourism, as an economic sector, is greatly influenced by the local environment, its climate and its climate-influenced natural resources. Moreover, the effect of climate on tourism is strongly influenced by the perceptions of tourists. Instead of the average temperature, what is important is the ‘thermal comfort’ of clients, and rather than average precipitation, the frequency and length of rain showers count for the quality of a tourism experience. Therefore, research into the impacts of climate change on tourism depends on the performance of regional and local climate scenarios, as well as on the sort of parameters that can be modelled at these scales. UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Mean annual temperature
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