Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Advances in Climate Change Science and Implications for the Tourism Sector
the understanding and modelling of climatic processes. Through the analysis of the global or regional
phenomena affecting regional and local climate and weather (e.g., El Niño, North Atlantic and Arctic
oscillations), meteorologists combine global forecasting methods and statistics, to determine probabilities
for a given season (e.g., probability the next summer will be warmer or dryer than average – (see Figure
8.1) – or the number of intense tropical storms expected in a region). Some Meteorological services,
such as US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issue seasonal forecasts more
than one year in advance, for parameters such as temperature and precipitation. The use of seasonal
prediction has been limited in the tourism sector thus far, 162 although there are a number of potential
uses that are anticipated to increase as seasonal prediction improve further: fuel supply procurement,
marketing, setting insurance premiums, inventory management, or cruise line destination planning.
One of the reasons for the slow integration of weather and climate information into decision making is
the uncertainty associated with the forecasts or predictions. Uncertainty is an unavoidable fact in any
climate projection, prediction, or assessment, but uncertainty is very different from no information.
Weather and climate experts strive to help users understand inherent uncertainty, and to learn how to
handle it, and thereby to be fully aware of the risks and benefits when making decisions regarding a
climate-sensitive activity. In a “Climate Risk Management” approach, decisions are never based on a
single scenario. Rather, risks and benefits are assessed over the range of possible scenarios, in such a
way that catastrophic loss is minimized, and over time, the best outcomes are realized. The challenge is
for the meteorological and tourism communities to work together to find the decisions and policies that
are amenable to such an approach, and to seize upon them.
In recent years, new partnerships between meteorological institutions and tourism stakeholders have
developed. 163 This cooperation has taken multiple forms, from new forecasts for tourism destinations,
improved media training and cooperation to deliver forecasts related to tourism, to specific contracts
between meteorological services and destinations, tour operators and other stakeholders. UNWTO
and WMO have begun new collaborations to improve the availability and use of weather and climate
information in the tourism sector. WMO has established a new Expert Team on Climate and Tourism 164
with part of its mandate to work with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and tourism
professionals to develop tailored climate products for application to tourism and develop new information
on risk assessment to build on the WMO-UNWTO Handbook on Natural Disaster Reduction in Tourism
Areas.
Figure 8.1 A global seasonal weather forecast for summer 2007 temperatures, issued in March 2007
90N
45N
cold cold or average average warm or average warm
more likely more likely more likely more likely more likely
Source : UK Met Office (2007)
0
45S
90s
180W 90W 0 90E 180E
47