Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

Chapter 7
The Earth’s climate has demonstrably changed compared to the pre-industrial era and is anticipated to
continue to change over the 21st century and beyond. On the basis of accumulating scientific evidence,
including observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
and ice, rising global average sea levels, and a range of biological responses, the Intergovernment Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) 109 declared that “[…] warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” The
global mean temperature has increased approximately 0.76° C between 1850–1899 and 2001–2005
and the IPCC concluded that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely (> 90% probability) the result of human activities that are increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
In addition, the IPCC 110 projected that the pace of climate change is very likely (> 90% probability) to
accelerate with continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates, with the best estimate
that globally averaged surface temperatures will rise by 1.8° C (low emission scenario) to 4.0° C (high
emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Even if atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases (GHG) were stabilized at current levels, the Earth would continue to warm as a result of past GHG
emissions and the thermal inertia of the oceans. The biological response to this continued warming and
sea level rise would proceed for many centuries. 111, 112
The environmental and economic risks of the magnitude of climate change in the 21st century are
considerable and featured prominently in international policy debates. 113, 114, 115 The international
business community involved in the United Nations Global Compact 116 contend climate change
will affect business and society in fundamental and transformative ways. The Stern Review 117 on the
Economics of Climate Change concluded that unmitigated climate change could risk major economic
and social disruption later in this century and that tackling climate change was a pro-economic growth
strategy, with the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweighing the costs of inaction. The
IPCC also recently concluded with very high confidence 118 that climate change will impede the ability
of many nations to achieve sustainable development pathways, as articulated in the United Nations
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 119 , over the next half-century.
Our lifestyles, economies, health and social well-being are all affected by climate change, and although
the consequences of climate change will vary on a regional basis, all nations and economic sectors
will have to contend with climate change in one way or another, addressing the challenges of both
adaptation and mitigation. Tourism is no exception, as climate change is already affecting decisionmaking
in the tourism sector and will be a pivotal issue affecting the medium and long-term future of
tourism development and management. 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125
7.1 The New Realities of Tourism in an Era of Global Climate Change
Because of its close connections to the environment and climate itself, tourism is considered to be a
highly climate-sensitive economic sector like agriculture, insurance, energy, and transportation. 126
Indeed, climate change is not a remote future event for tourism, as the varied impacts of a changing
climate are becoming evident at destinations around the world. Tourism is affected by a very wide
range of environmental and socio-economic factors, and has been continuously adapting to challenges
and crisis situations, such as natural disasters, epidemics, terrorism, civil strife or economic downturns,
showing great resilience. Therefore, the capacity of the tourism sector to adapt to climate change is
thought to be relatively high due to its dynamic nature. Tourism can provide important opportunities
UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Introduction to the Technical Report