Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Executive Summary
operators may be overestimating their adaptive capacity (e.g., capacity to make snow under the warmest
scenarios). The incorporation of adaptation to climate change into the collective minds of private and
public sector tourism decision-makers (‘mainstreaming’) remains several steps away. Consequently,
there is a real need for effective communication between the climate change science community and
tourism operators at the regional and local scale, particularly with respect to the development of climate
change scenarios and indicators catered toward local tourism decision-making.
Figure 6.2 Geographic distribution of major climate change impacts affecting tourism
destinations*
* Key destination vulnerabilities are identified at the sub-regional scale in the full technical report
6.3 Implications of Climate Change for Tourism Demand Patterns
Climate, the natural environment, and personal safety are three primary factors in destination choice,
and global climate change is anticipated to have significant impacts on all three of these factors at the
regional level. Tourists also have the greatest capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change, with
relative freedom to avoid destinations impacted by climate change or shifting the timing of travel to
avoid unfavourable climate conditions. As such, the response of tourists to the complexity of destination
impacts will reshape demand patterns and play a pivotal role in the eventual impacts of climate change
on the tourism industry. Understanding and anticipating the potential geographic and seasonal shifts in
tourist demand will remain critical areas of research in the future.
The evidence available from studies that have explored the potential impact of altered climate conditions
for tourist demand suggests that the geographic and seasonal redistribution of tourist demand may
be very large for individual destinations and countries by mid- to late-century. 84, 85 Anticipated
impacts include a gradual shift in preferred destinations to higher latitudes and to higher elevations in
mountainous areas. Tourists from temperate nations that currently dominate international travel (e.g.,
Northern Europe) are expected to spend more holidays in their home country or nearby, adapting their
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