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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Executive Summary various destination types has improved since the Djerba Conference, it is important to emphasize that there remain major regional gaps in our knowledge of how climate change will affect the natural and cultural resources critical for tourism in Africa, the Caribbean, South America, the Middle East and large parts of East Asia. 45 Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility: National or international mitigation policies – that are policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions – are likely to have an impact on tourist flows. They will lead to an increase in transport costs and may foster environmental attitudes that lead tourists to change their travel patterns (e.g., shift transport mode or destination choices). There has been substantial recent media coverage on this topic, specifically as it relates to air travel. Long-haul destinations can be particularly affected and officials in Southeast Asia, Australia-New Zealand, and the Caribbean have expressed concern that mitigation policies could adversely impact their national tourism economy. 29 46, 47, 48 On the other hand, emission scenario projections developed for this report indicate that opportunities may arise for low carbon emission transport modes like coach and rail. This may also help to re-vitalize destinations that are nearer to the main markets. Indirect societal change impacts: Climate change is thought to pose a risk to future economic growth and to the political stability of some nations. 49, 50, 51, 52 The Stern Report on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that although a global warming of only 1° C might benefit global GDP, greater climate change would eventually damage economic growth at the global scale, including the stark conclusion that unmitigated climate change could cause a reduction in consumption per capita of 20% later in the 21st century or early 22nd century. 53 Any such reduction of global GDP due to climate change would reduce the discretionary wealth available to consumers for tourism and have negative implications for anticipated future growth in tourism; however there has been no in-depth interpretation of the Stern Report 54 for the tourism sector. “Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century.” The Stern Report (2006) Climate change is considered a national and international security risk that will steadily intensify, particularly under greater warming scenarios. 55, 56, 57 Climate change associated security risks have been identified in a number of regions where tourism is highly important to local/national economies. 58, 59, 60 Tourists, particularly international tourists, are averse to political instability and social unrest, 61, 62 and the negative tourism demand repercussions for the climate change security hotspots 63 are very evident. A security-related decline in tourism would exacerbate deteriorating economic performance in these destinations, potentially undermining development objectives in some LDCs. 64, 65, 66, 67 Destination vulnerability hotspots: The integrated effects of climate change will have far-reaching consequences for tourism businesses and destinations. Importantly, climate change will generate both negative and positive impacts in the tourism sector and these impacts will vary substantially by market segment and geographic region. The implications of climate change for any tourism business or destination will also partially depend on the impacts on its competitors. A negative impact in one part of the tourism system may constitute an opportunity elsewhere. Consequently, there will be ‘winners and losers’ at the business, destination and nation level. Figure 6.2 provides a summary assessment of the most at-risk tourism destinations for the mid- to late-21st century. Due to the very limited information available on the potential impacts of climate change in some tourism regions, this qualitative assessment must also be considered with caution. Until systematic regional level assessments are conducted a definitive statement on the net economic or social impacts in the tourism sector will not be possible. Furthermore, the outcome most likely will depend on the extent of climate change. The impact on the tourism sector may strongly parallel that of the global economy, where a 1° C temperature rise may result in a net benefit for the world economy, but greater increases increasingly show net declines. 68 Destination level adaptation: It is now recognised that regardless of the emissions reduction efforts, there is an inevitable need for societies around the world to adapt to unavoidable changes in climate.
30 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges 69 It is essential to emphasize that regardless of the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts, all tourism businesses and destinations will need to adapt to climate change in order to minimize associated risks and capitalize upon new opportunities, in an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable manner. Tourists have the greatest adaptive capacity (depending on three key resources: money, knowledge and time) with relative freedom to avoid destinations impacted by climate change or shifting the timing of travel to avoid unfavourable climate conditions. Suppliers of tourism services and tourism operators at specific destinations have less adaptive capacity. Large tour operators, who do not own the infrastructure, are in a better position to adapt to changes at destinations because they can respond to clients demands and provide information to influence clients’ travel choices. Destination communities and tourism operators with large investment in immobile capital assets (e.g., hotel, resort complex, marina or casino) have the least adaptive capacity. The dynamic nature of the tourism industry and its ability to cope with a range of recent major shocks, including SARS, terrorism attacks in a number of nations, or the Asian tsunami, suggests a relatively high adaptive capacity within the tourism industry overall. The capacity to adapt to climate change is thought to vary substantially between sub-sectors, destinations, and individual businesses within the tourism industry. 70, 71, 72, 73, 74 “It is vital for tourism destinations […] to anticipate the coming changes and to draw their consequences, starting now. [Adaptation] is a long-term project that must be anticipated and carefully prepared beforehand; it is not easy to see this through successfully, because it entails, all at the same time, modifying economic circuits, introducing new technologies, carrying out intensive training, investing in the creation of new products, […] changing the minds of public authorities, entrepreneurs, host communities and tourists.” UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Francesco Frangialli, UNWTO Secretary-General (2007) The tourism sector has been adapting its operations to climate zones world-wide, using a diverse range of technological, managerial, educational, policy and behavioural adaptations to deal with climate variability. However, adaptation has figured less prominently in climate change research on tourism than in some other economic sectors (e.g., agriculture). There has been a range of research activities focusing on climate change impacts for destinations or specific tourism sectors (e.g., ski operations), but they generally have not identified properly the range of adaptation options available to tourism stakeholders. Due to a lack of integration of adaptation measures in impact analysis studies, the perspectives on projected impacts may be misleading. Much more needs to be done to incorporate adaptation into future impact assessments in the tourism sector given its high adaptive capacity. Second, knowledge of the capability of current climate adaptations to cope successfully with future climate change remains rudimentary. 75 An important lesson learned from Hurricane Katrina and the extremely warm winter of 2006–2007 in the European Alps is that adaptations can be overwhelmed by events unexpected and beyond the range of experience of the tourism sector. Such events should be anticipated under climate change, and consequently there is a critical need for the tourism sector to evaluate the effectiveness of current adaptations under projected climate conditions. In an era of global climate change, it will no longer be sufficient to rely on past experience. The information requirements for effective, anticipatory climate change adaptation will be substantial and therefore adaptation is a critical area for future research. Climate change is slowly entering into decision-making of a range of tourism stakeholders (e.g., investors, insurance companies, tourism enterprises, governments, and tourists); studies that have examined the climate change risk appraisal of local tourism officials and operators have consistently found relatively low levels of concern and little evidence of long-term strategic planning in anticipation of future changes in climate. * 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83 There is also some evidence that local tourism * Key destination vulnerabilities are identified at the sub-regional scale in the full technical report.
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