Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

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Chapter 6 UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Executive Summary 6.1 The New Realities of Tourism in an Era of Global Climate Change Compelling evidence indicates that global climate has changed compared to the pre-industrial era and is anticipated to continue to change over the 21st century and beyond. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1 declared that “[…] warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” The global mean temperature has increased approximately 0.76° C between 1850–1899 and 2001–2005 and the IPCC 2 concluded that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (> 90% probability) the result of human activities that are increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Discernible human influences now also extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns. 3 Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps and warming ocean surface temperature have contributed to sea level rise of 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003, and approximately 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003. The biological response of ecosystems and individual species has been recorded on every continent. 4 The IPCC has projected that the pace of climate change is very likely (> 90% probability) to accelerate with continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at or above current rates, with the best estimate that globally averaged surface temperatures will rise by 1.8° C to 4.0° C by the end of the 21st century. 5 Even if atmospheric concentrations of GHGs were stabilized at current levels, the Earth would continue to warm as a result of past GHG emissions and the thermal inertia of the oceans. The biological response to this continued warming and sea level rise would continue for several centuries. 6, 7 Future changes in temperatures and other important features of climate will manifest themselves differently across the regions of the world (Figure 6.1). According to the IPCC, it is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. It is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. The extension of the regions that will be primary affected by these extreme events with major tourism destinations highlights the need for awareness and preparedness for natural hazards at the local level through systematic capacity building and strategies for disaster risk management. Extratropical storm tracks are projected to shift poleward, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the last half-century. Observed decreases in snow cover are also projected to continue. The environmental and economic risks of the magnitude of climate change projected for the 21st century are considerable and have featured prominently in recent international policy debates. 8, 9, 10 The IPCC concluded with very high confidence 11 that climate change would impede the ability of many nations to achieve sustainable development by mid-century. The Stern Review 12 on the Economics of Climate Change found that the costs of taking action to reduce GHG emissions now, are much smaller than the costs of economic and social disruption from unmitigated climate change.
26 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges Figure 6.1 IPCC representation of anticipated regional climate change Source: IPCC 2007a Our lifestyles, economies, health and social well-being are all affected by climate change, and although the consequences of climate change will vary on a regional basis, all nations and economic sectors will have to contend with the challenges of climate change through adaptation and mitigation. Tourism is no exception and in the decades ahead, climate change will become an increasingly pivotal issue affecting tourism development and management. 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 UNWTO, 9 July 2008
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