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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Emission Calcultations Table A2.3 Distance factor and final operational emission factor for the different air transport markets Market Average one-way (km) Distance factor (–) Emission factor (ISA, plus wind) (kg/pkm) Same day 600 1.50 0.177 Domestic 1396 1.17 0.138 Intra-regional 1938 1.06 0.125 Inter-regional 7006 1.05 0.124 International 3801 n/a 0.124 However, there is another effect we should reckon with: the relation between distance flown and emission factor is not linear. That means that if for a market the average distance is used, the deviation of the emission factor, at for example 30% lower than the average, is larger than the deviation of the emission factor at 30% above the average distance. Therefore, the operational average emission factor will be a bit higher. Furthermore, we know the overall emissions (515 Mt) and distance by air (3,984 billion pkm), and thus the average emission factor (0.129 kg/pkm). As the initial emission factors – found with the data given above – was a bit too low, we calculated a correction factor that thus also accounts for the nonlinearity and for the impact that part of the flights consist of more legs with shorter average distances, and thus generally higher emission factors. This factor was found to be 1.013. Table A2.3 and Figure A2.1 give the final results. Figure A2.1 Emission factors as function of average one-way distance Emission factor (kg/pkm; ISA, wind correction) 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 Source: Peeters, P. et al. (2007a) 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 One way distance (km) Data fitted Data Peeters et al. (2007) Current radiative forcing data are based on all aviation emissions, including military emissions, which thus need to be deducted from the total. Linearly interpolated from Penner et al. (1999: table 9.4) 757 , the share of military fuel consumption was 12.2% in 2005. However, for non-CO 2 RF only part of the impact of high altitude cruise flight is relevant because military flights usually take place at low altitudes. As the RFI is 1.9 758 for all aviation, the military correction factor will be ((1.0 – 0.122) + 0.9)/1.9=0.93. The share of tourism aviation of all aviation CO 2 emissions would consequently be 73%. 195
196 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges A2.2.3 Accommodation Energy use in hotels varies considerably, both with respect to the sources of energy used and the amount of energy consumed. A more recent review found values for hotel accommodations of between 51 MJ/guest night (Majorca) and 256 MJ/guest night (Zanzibar). 759 Hilton hotels were found to consume an average of 322 MJ/guest night, while Scandic hotels used an average of 172 MJ/guest night. Hotels investigated in the Seychelles showed energy uses of 36–108 MJ per bed night, excluding the use of fossil fuels for cooking, etc. 760 Hotels with self-supporting power generation may use more energy per bed night. A survey in Zanzibar, Tanzania found that energy consumption was 221 MJ per guest night for established smaller hotels and up to 916 MJ per guest night for newly opened resort hotels with still low occupancy rates. 761 The estimated average for well-established hotels was 256 MJ per guest night. These values exclude primary energy sources such as gas for cooking. Hotels use generally more energy per visitor than other types of accommodation, as they have energy intense facilities, such as bars, restaurants, pools, and more spacious rooms. 762 Pensions may have a comparably low number of beds and occupancy rates are assumed to be somewhat lower than those of hotels. Even though a rather high energy-consumption values in bed & breakfast facilities in New Zealand of 110 MJ per guest night was reported, 763 a lower average of 50 MJ is assumed here for all accommodation establishments in this category. Campsites were assumed to have the lowest energy use of all categories, with 25 MJ per guest night, while holiday villages were calculated at 90 MJ per guest night. No data is available for self-catering facilities and vacation homes. These were assumed to consume 120 MJ and 100 MJ per bed night. For the worldwide mix of tourism accommodations in 2001, a value of 98 MJ/guest night was established. 764 Hotels tend to become more and more luxurious, resorts seem to use large amounts of energy, specifically in the booming market for long haul destinations in developing countries. It is thus assumed that this average value has increased to 120 MJ/guest night, or 19.0 kg CO 2 /guest night for all tourists from developed countries, as well as for international tourists and domestic tourists in developed countries using commercial accommodation. * For domestic tourists in developing countries, it seems reasonable to use a lower value for commercial accommodation. The average developed country amount of CO 2 emissions per capita is 13.1 tonnes/ year (or 36 kg CO 2 /day). 765 If half of this is attributable to housing, this corresponds to 18 kg CO 2 /day, a value near the 19.0 kg/guest night used for domestic tourism in developed countries. For VFR tourists in developing countries, this value cannot be used, though, as the average energy consumption, of people living in developing countries corresponds to 2.2 tonnes of CO 2 per year on average. 766 This corresponds to 6 kg per head per night. However, this includes emissions from other economic sectors, such as agriculture, transport, or industry. Household emissions will be less than half of this, and most VFR tourism will thus lead to concomitantly low emission levels. However, a share of non-VFR domestic tourism will use high standard accommodation, and thus contribute to the same emission levels as international tourists (19.0 kg/guest night), significantly increasing the overall domestic developing countries average. An average of 4 kg CO 2 /guest night for domestic tourists in developing countries is thus assumed for calculations. * Note that some hotels running generators may cause substantially higher emissions, with known values of up to 125 kg CO2 per bed night (excluding imports of food by air; Gössling, unpublished data). UNWTO, 9 July 2008
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