Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

Chapter 13
UNWTO, 9 July 2008
The Way Forward to Adaptation
and Mitigation in Tourism
Concern about climate change is increasing worldwide. Compelling evidence suggests that the climate
is already changing at an unprecedented rate within human history and the IPCC projects that global
mean temperatures will increase between 1.8° C and 4.0° C degrees by the end of the 21st century,
compared to the 1980–1999 period, partly depending on the trajectory of GHG emissions in the decades
ahead. 735 Even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilised, global warming, sea level rise, and the
biogeographical response would continue for centuries. The available evidence suggests that the impacts
of global climate change on natural and human systems may be enormous within this century, and that
the greater the rate of global warming, the greater the expected impacts. Based on this evidence, the
IPCC concluded with very high confidence 736 that climate change would impede the ability of many
nations to achieve sustainable development by mid-century and the Stern Review 737 on the Economics
of Climate Change concluded that the costs of taking action to reduce GHG emissions now, are much
smaller than the costs of economic and social disruption from unmitigated climate change.
As this report has articulated, tourism is not immune to the impacts of climate change as they are becoming
evident at destinations as diverse as the European Alps to the Great Barrier Reef. Consequently, UNWTO
and a wide range of tourism stakeholders have expressed their shared concern over the potential risks
climate change poses for the tourism sector as well as over its non-negligible contribution to climate
change through GHG emissions from the transport of tourists, their accommodation and activities.
Recognizing that tourism can and must play a significant role in addressing climate change as part
of its broader commitment to sustainable development, UNWTO and its partners organised the First
International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Djerba in 2003. This event was a watershed
in terms of raising awareness about the implications of climate change within the international tourism
community. As the Davos Conference and this report demonstrates, much has happened since then,
with many new climate change initiatives emerging in the tourism sector and substantial progress being
made on multiple fronts advance our understanding of the new realities of tourism in an era of global
climate change.
13.1 Key Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism
Key impacts of climate change on the tourism sector range from direct impacts on the climate resources
of destinations, to indirect environmental impacts (e.g., biodiversity, water resources, landscapes), and
to the potential for societal change and political destabilization of some nations. Exploratory studies
indicate that a shift of attractive climatic conditions for tourism towards higher latitudes and altitudes is
highly probable. As a result, the competitive position of some popular holiday areas are anticipated to
decline (e.g., the Mediterranean in summer), whereas other areas (e.g., southern England or southern
Canada) are expected to improve. The geographic and seasonal redistribution of climate resources for
tourism would have significant impacts at the regional and local scale, producing both ‘losers and
winners’ in terms of visitor flows, but are not anticipated to adversely affect global tourism demand.
Conversely, the indirect effects of climate change induced environmental and social change are likely
to be largely negative. Impacts such as decreasing natural snow reliability, increasing water shortages,
loss of attractive landscapes and biodiversity, and beach erosion will affect many destinations around
the world. Like the direct impacts of changing climate conditions, indirect environmental effects are
anticipated to have an important impact on tourist demand for specific destinations, but they are not
expected to affect overall tourism demand. In contrast, societal changes that may result from climate
change, including political and economic instability in some regions, mitigation policies, and changes