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UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Mitigation Policies and Measures To explore these ‘tourism-mitigation-scenarios’, the assumptions of the ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario for 2035 that was developed in Chapter 11 are altered to model the potential affect of various mitigation strategies. The purpose is not to provide a political blueprint of measures for a low emission future, but to show the potential responses of the tourism system if certain types of efficiency gains are pursued on a widespread basis and certain types of changes in demand patterns potentially occur. The assumptions of the two mitigation scenarios developed* are outlined below and the resulting GHG emissions are compared with the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for 2035. ‘Technical-efficiency’ scenario • • • • • Reduction in aviation energy consumption per pkm of 50% versus 32% in the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario; additional 2% per year reduction in car transport emissions per pkm over the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario; additional 2% per year reduction in other transport emissions per pkm over the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario; additional 2% per year reduction in accommodation emissions per guest night over the ‘businessas-usual’ scenario; additional 2% per year reduction in activities emissions per trip over the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario; ‘Modal shift/length-of-stay’ (LOS) scenario • No further growth in aviation number of trips and pkm; ** • • growth in rail/coach of 2.4% to 5% per year to keep growth in the number of trips constant with the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario; 0.5% per year increase in average LOS instead of a 0.5% reduction per year in the ‘business-asusual’ scenario. The ‘technical-efficiency’ scenario reduced CO 2 emissions by 38% (Figure 12.7) and RF by 40% versus the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario in 2035. This scenario did not however achieve absolute reductions in emissions nor in RF versus the 2005 baseline, largely because of the large growth in the number of trips over this timeframe. Emissions of CO 2 were 44% lower in the ‘Modal-Shift -Increased LOS Scenario’ than the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for 2035, but also did not achieve absolute reductions in 2005 baseline emissions (Figure 12.7). However, this scenario does achieve an absolute reduction of RF by 5% with respect to RF in 2005. Notably, when the two scenarios were combined, CO 2 emissions were reduced 68% (equal to 16% below the 2005 baseline – Figure 12.7) and RF reduced by 85%. Several important points emerge from this analysis: • Increasing LOS is an economically efficient way to save a significant amount of emissions, while retaining the total number of guest nights. Social policies that would contribute to this change in current LOS trends is an important area of further analysis. * Many other mitigation scenarios with different assumptions are possible; a total 70 were analyzed with the emissions model. ** The number of passenger kilometres is kept constant, using average trip distance as found in the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, thus also keeping the number of trips by air transport constant. However, it is possible to keep reach the same emissions reduction with some growth in the number of trips by air transport when the average distance is reduced (i.e. less long-haul and more medium haul) 171
172 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges • • • Reducing energy use by combinations of modal shift, shift to shorter haul destinations and increased LOS is more effective in reducing CO emissions (–44%) than additional technological 2 energy efficiency improvements alone (–38%). Limiting growth of car transport and a modal shift towards rail/coach has a limited impact on CO emissions (–3% if domestic car trips in developed countries is limited to zero growth; –7% if 2 growth in all car trips is limited to zero). Aviation efficiency and growth reduction has important impacts on emission reductions (–14% if aviation fuel efficiency is increased to the theoretical limits, and up to –43% if pkm are restricted to current levels). Thus aviation policies are likely to play a crucial role in mitigating tourist emissions. • ‘Aggressive’ efficiency measures in accommodations and activities can reduce CO emissions by 2 14%. • Only the combination of emission reduction strategies delivered absolute reductions in CO2 emissions (and RF) in concordance with the goals of the international community for avoiding dangerous climate change and recent discussions of long-term emission reduction targets at the “Vienna Climate Change Talks”. In all other mitigation scenarios evaluated, other economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, manufacturing) will have to take a larger share of the mitigation burden as emissions from tourism continued to increase above 2005 baseline levels. Figure 12.7 Scenarios of CO 2 mitigation potential from global tourism in 2035 Mton CO 2 3,500 3.000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 12.6 Conclusion This Chapter has discussed a wide range of mitigation options for tourism within the aviation and other transport systems, tourism establishments, tour operators and tourists. Mitigation measures range from low-cost initiatives (e.g., using energy-efficient lighting in hotels, monitor energy use) to those that require more effort and investment, for example purchasing more fuel-efficient vehicles, designing a sustainable transport system at a destination, changing transport mode choices or travel patterns. It becomes clear that a combination of measures will be required to reduce the carbon footprint of tourism. This means a wide number of stakeholders need to be involved – airlines, vehicle- and aircraft manufacturers, transport companies, tour operators and travel agents, hotels-resorts, attractions, international organisations, UNWTO, 9 July 2008 0 * Excludes same-day visitors Baseline Business- Technical- Modal-Shift/ Combined as-Usual Eefficiency Llength-of-Stay 2005* 2035* -38% -44% 2035 Mitigation scenarios -68% ⎫ ⎬ ⎭
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