Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Mitigation Policies and Measures
To explore these ‘tourism-mitigation-scenarios’, the assumptions of the ‘business-as-usual’ emissions
scenario for 2035 that was developed in Chapter 11 are altered to model the potential affect of various
mitigation strategies. The purpose is not to provide a political blueprint of measures for a low emission
future, but to show the potential responses of the tourism system if certain types of efficiency gains are
pursued on a widespread basis and certain types of changes in demand patterns potentially occur. The
assumptions of the two mitigation scenarios developed* are outlined below and the resulting GHG
emissions are compared with the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for 2035.
‘Technical-efficiency’ scenario
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Reduction in aviation energy consumption per pkm of 50% versus 32% in the ‘business-as-usual’
scenario;
additional 2% per year reduction in car transport emissions per pkm over the ‘business-as-usual’
scenario;
additional 2% per year reduction in other transport emissions per pkm over the ‘business-as-usual’
scenario;
additional 2% per year reduction in accommodation emissions per guest night over the ‘businessas-usual’
scenario;
additional 2% per year reduction in activities emissions per trip over the ‘business-as-usual’
scenario;
‘Modal shift/length-of-stay’ (LOS) scenario
• No further growth in aviation number of trips and pkm; **
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growth in rail/coach of 2.4% to 5% per year to keep growth in the number of trips constant with
the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario;
0.5% per year increase in average LOS instead of a 0.5% reduction per year in the ‘business-asusual’
scenario.
The ‘technical-efficiency’ scenario reduced CO 2 emissions by 38% (Figure 12.7) and RF by 40% versus
the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario in 2035. This scenario did not however achieve absolute reductions in
emissions nor in RF versus the 2005 baseline, largely because of the large growth in the number of trips
over this timeframe. Emissions of CO 2 were 44% lower in the ‘Modal-Shift -Increased LOS Scenario’
than the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for 2035, but also did not achieve absolute reductions in 2005
baseline emissions (Figure 12.7). However, this scenario does achieve an absolute reduction of RF by
5% with respect to RF in 2005. Notably, when the two scenarios were combined, CO 2 emissions were
reduced 68% (equal to 16% below the 2005 baseline – Figure 12.7) and RF reduced by 85%. Several
important points emerge from this analysis:
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Increasing LOS is an economically efficient way to save a significant amount of emissions, while
retaining the total number of guest nights. Social policies that would contribute to this change in
current LOS trends is an important area of further analysis.
* Many other mitigation scenarios with different assumptions are possible; a total 70 were analyzed with the emissions
model.
** The number of passenger kilometres is kept constant, using average trip distance as found in the ‘business-as-usual’
scenario, thus also keeping the number of trips by air transport constant. However, it is possible to keep reach the same
emissions reduction with some growth in the number of trips by air transport when the average distance is reduced (i.e. less
long-haul and more medium haul)
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