Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

146 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges
12.1 Transport
As outlined in Chapter 11, transport accounts for 75% of the total GHG emissions caused by tourism.
Aviation and the private car are the major contributors to tourism transport emissions. Current trends
show a strong growth of air transport at the expense of car, coach and rail in the developed world, while
in the developing world, both car and air transport grow to the disadvantage of public transport (bus,
rail). The challenge for tourism transport is to increase fuel efficiency of all transport modes, and to
facilitate a modal shift towards rail and coach. Furthermore, the growth in distances travelled demands
strong attention.
12.1.1 Air Transport
Fuel is now a major cost for airlines at about 20–25% of direct operational costs, 668 which should be
a compelling argument for aircraft manufacturers to design fuel-efficient aircraft. Space and the weight
that can be carried are both limited on board of an aircraft, and high fuel consumption is thus also a
factor negatively affecting maximum payload-range, take-off and landing capabilities.
Fuel-efficiency of aircraft has been improved for jet aircraft introduced in the 1950s (Figure 12.1).
The IPCC expects future emission reduction potentials from combined improved engine and airframe
technology in the order of 20% between 1997 and 2015 and 30–50% between 1997 and 2050. 669
Several advanced technologies have to be combined to reach this Figure (Box 27). At the moment it
is thought that the ultimate reductions of fuel consumption per pkm that can be achieved through
technological change are in the order of 50%. However, these are for economical reasons not likely to
be achieved. Furthermore, it should be noted completely new aircraft configurations like the blended
wing body or a propulsion system based on fuel cells and hydrogen* have a large temporal lag of
several decades between the conception of a new technology and the full operational use of it in the
total fleet.
Based on actually achieved energy efficiency in the history of jet aircraft (up to 1997), a regression curve
has been constructed. From this curve it has been calculated the expected reduction between 2000 and
2050 will be less than 40%. 670 Note that the new Boeing B787 Dreamliner fits neatly in the regression
curve.** The A380 is even some 10% above this curve. 671
* See for example technology break-throughs proposed by Masson, P. J. et al. (2007), HTS Machines as Enabling Technology
for All-electric Airborne Vehicles.
** The Dreamliner is 20% more fuel efficient than its competitors, that all entered service in the 1990s. The curve shows the
same 20% for this eleven-year period to 2008, the year of market introduction planned for the B787.
UNWTO, 9 July 2008