Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Emissions from Tourism: Status and Trends
The latest global emissions projections by IPCC * show a 30 year (2000–2030) change in overall
emissions of at best a reduction by 6% up to an increase by 88%. This is much lower than the 161%
growth seen here for emissions generated through tourist trips. This development of CO 2 emissions from
tourism is also in stark contrast to emission reduction needs. Tourism-related CO 2 emissions will reach
3,057 Mt by 2035 under the ‘business-as-usual’, up from 1,167 Mt in 2005 (this figure excludes sameday
visitors emissions). Box 26 illustrates the implications of such developments with regard to aviation
in the EU.
Box 26 Emission reduction goals and the development of aviation emissions in the EU
The upper two curves in Figure 11.14 shows the maximum amount of annual emissions of CO 2
in the EU in a +2° C warming scenario, as agreed upon by the EU as the maximum temperature
change acceptable to avoid ‘dangerous interference with the climate system’. 666 The lower curves
show the projected levels of emissions from aviation for a range of scenarios in the European Union,
under mixes of optimistic and pessimistic assumptions about technical efficiency improvements
and aviation growth. The Figure shows that in a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, emissions from
aviation alone would in several cases correspond to the maximum amount of emissions that can
be emitted within the EU by 2050. The implication is that a ‘business-as-usual’ growth scenario for
aviation is not feasible, if the EU 2° C maximum warming scenario is to be taken seriously
Figure 11.14 EU emission reduction targets and aviation emissions
Carbon emissions (MTC)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Based on Bows, A. et al. (2077)
EU25 contracting 450 ppmv carbon budget
450 Low
450 High
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
In terms of radiative forcing, tourism’s contribution to global warming will grow even faster, given
an increase of RF in the order of 192% (excluding cirrus) to 209% (including maximum cirrus),
corresponding to 0.198 W/m 2 (without cirrus) and 0.387 W/m 2 (including maximum cirrus). Figure
11.15 shows a breakdown of CO 2 emissions and RF for tourism by 2035. According to this ‘businessas-usuals’
scenario, aviation would be responsible for 53% of the total tourist trips emissions (CO 2 only)
from an estimated 40% in 2005 and even higher shares for RF (compare for 2005 in Figure 11.8).
Year
* 30-year growth projections for 2000-2030. IPCC (2007c), figure SPM 4 on page 7.
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