Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Emissions from Tourism: Status and Trends
• Growing tourism demand: the number of tourist trips is for the purpose of this report projected
to grow exponentially over the coming three decades. According to UNWTO’s Tourism 2020
Vision 658 , the number of international tourist arrivals is forecast to reach 1.6 billion by 2020.
an increase of nearly 100% over 2005 (803 million). It is unclear how domestic tourist volumes
will develop, but rapid growth can be expected in many markets as well, and in particular in
developing countries like India and China. Current growth rates in domestic tourist trips in India
and China have been in the order of 10% per year in recent years. 659, 660
• Increased long-haul travel: according to UNWTO’s Tourism 2020 Vision, the share of long-haul
tourism is projected to increase from 18% in 1995 to 24% in 2020 661 , which, given the overall
growth in tourism, implies that the number of long-haul trips will more than triple between 1995
and 2020. Furthermore, average trip distance is also increasing. In the EU, the number of trips is
projected to grow by 57% between 2000 and 2020, while the distances travelled are expected to
grow by 122%. 662
• More frequent holidays: there is a trend of more frequent holidays over shorter periods of time.
Consequently, guest night numbers are likely to grow at a slower pace than the number of trips,
distances travelled and corresponding CO emissions.
2
In the framework of this report, we developed several scenarios considering different mitigation options,
in order to estimate how emission of global tourist activities might be mitigated in the future (see
Chapter 12 for the results of these scenarios).
These scenarios are based on a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario projection. This was built to the year
2035, in order to provide an estimate on how emissions might evolve when actions are not taken
in a comprehensive manner at an appropriate scale in the tourism sector. This scenario is based on
projected tourism demand growth rates, as well as distances travelled by various means of transport.
These projections also take into account that the number of arrivals is expected to grow faster than the
number of guest nights due to the trend of reduced length of stay (see Table 11.8 for the assumptions
and Table 11.9 for the references used).
Emissions also depend on changes in energy efficiency. For air transport, estimates of high efficiency
gains 663 were assumed (Table 11.10). For cars, efficiency improvements were assumed to be moderate
in the developed world and somewhat higher in the developing world, as strong economic growth in
many regions will result in a comparably new car fleet (Table 11.10). For other means of transport, a 1%
increase in efficiency was assumed. Energy efficiency per tourist night was assumed to be constant, as
efficiency gains in this sector are likely to be outpaced by higher standards (e.g., concerning room size)
in accommodation. Other activities can also be expected to become rather energy-intense, even when
the average length of stay declines and efficiency measures are taken. This is primarily because there is
a recent trend towards motorised activities (Table 11.10).
Table 11.8 Model assumptions: tourist arrivals and travel distance growth rates average annual
growth (%/year) between 2005 and 2035
Air transport
(distance)
Car transport
(distance)
Other transport
(distance)
Accommodation
(number of
nights)
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Tourism volume
(number of
trips)
International 5.3 2.3 2.0 4.0 4.5 (a)
Domestic 11.1 7.5 3.7 5.3 6.3
(a) UNWTO forecasts a 4.1% annual growth of international tourist arrivals until 2020. The figures in this table, including the 4.5%
growth of international tourist arrivals until 2035 is based on estimation carried out by the expert author team of this report.
However, UNWTO assumes that the growth might even slow down due to a number of factors, for example the maturing and
saturation of main tourism markets.