Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

UNWTO, 9 July 2008
Implications of Climate Change for Tourism Demand
to 41%. Of course, demographic change (population increase) or socio-economic change (increased or
decreased desire to interact with nature, travel costs to parks or other alternate holiday destinations for
both domestic and international tourists) would also influence visitation patterns in the decades ahead.
The interaction of these factors remains an important area of analysis to better understand how tourism
demand may evolve under climate change.
Although visitation to Canada’s national parks is projected to increase system-wide under climate change,
there are important regional and seasonal differences in the projected magnitude of increase. Parks on
the Atlantic Ocean (Prince Edward Island and Cape Breton Highlands) were projected to experience the
largest increases, with visitation levels potentially doubling in late century under the warmest climate
change scenarios. Most of the parks are projected to experience the largest increases in visitation during
the spring (April to June) and fall (September to November) shoulder seasons, with minimal increase
during the traditional peak months of July and August Banff National Park, for instance, is projected
to experience average spring increases in visitation of 19% and average fall increases of 16% under
the warmest climate change scenario compared to an average increase of only 5% during July and
August (Figure 10.2). Changes in the seasonal timing of increases in visitation will influence a range of
management issues, including user-fee collection, environmental operations and staffing needs.
The projected increase in visitation (an additional 1 to 4 million visitors annually by mid-century) would
generate substantial growth in park revenues and the economies of nearby communities. Increased
visitation could also exacerbate visitor-related ecological pressures and crowding issues at popular
park attractions in high visitation parks. Under a changed climate, more intensive visitor management
strategies may be required to support sustainable tourism in these parks and prevent the degradation of
visitor experience.
Figure 10.2 Change in average monthly visitation to Banff National Park (Canada) in mid-century
Source: Scott, D. and Jones, B. (2005)
Climate change implications for golf tourism
The golf industry is economically 557, 558 one of the largest recreation sectors in the world and an
increasingly important tourism sector. Golf is projected to be highly influenced by climate change
because it will alter the length of the operating season, influence seasonal and total golf demand, require
increased turf management (i.e., irrigation, turf grass selection and turf disease and pest management),
and threatens some of the world’s historic coastal courses through sea level rise and erosion. 559, 560,
561, 562
Visitors
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