Climate Change and Tourism - UNEP - Division of Technology ...

100 Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges
be affected by climate change. The fate of individual destinations in particular markets will also at least
partly depend on the fate of its competitors.
Table 9.7 provides a qualitative assessment of the tourism destinations that are most at-risk to major
types of climate change impact by the mid- to late-21st century. This assessment takes into consideration
the available scientific information on climate change impact relevant to tourism, the relative adaptive
capacity of nations and regions as summarized by the IPCC, and the importance of tourism to national
economies. Figure 9.7 integrates this information to identify regional vulnerability ‘hotspots’ where
clusters of major impacts are anticipated to occur and adaptation assistance is likely to be needed by
nations and destinations. Due to the very limited information available on the potential impacts of
climate change in some tourism regions (Table 9.8 and Figure 9.16), this qualitative assessment must
be considered with caution. Until systematic regional level assessments are conducted, particularly
in Africa, South America, and Asia (Table 9.8) a definitive statement on the most vulnerable tourism
regions and the net economic and social impacts in the tourism sector will not be possible.
Table 9.7 Tourism vulnerability hotspots (a)
Warmer summers Warmer winters Extreme events Water scarcity
Mediterranean and
Middle East
Southern USA and
California
UNWTO, 9 July 2008
European Alps Caribbean Mediterranean and
Middle East
Northeast-Midwest USA/
Eastern Canada
USA Gulf of Mexico coast Southwest USA
Caribbean Australian Alps Polynesia/Micronesia Australia
South Africa Rocky Mountains East China Sea coast North and
Sub-Saharan Africa
North Queensland Pyrenees Mountains Northern Australia Small island nations
Land biodiversity loss Marine biodiversity loss Sea level rise Disease
South Africa Cape Region Polynesia/Micronesia Maldives and other Indian
Ocean islands
Sub-Saharan and
Southern Africa
Mediterranean Basin Australia Florida Western Europe
Polynesia/Micronesia Caribbean and
South America
Central America-
Costa Rica
South America
Amazon Basin
Polynesia/Micronesia South USA
South China Sea Gold Coast Mediterranean
Maldives islands Coastal China Northern Australia
Travel cost increase from mitigation policy Political destabilization
Australia Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa
New Zealand Southern Africa
Seychelles/Maldives Caribbean
Sub-Saharan and South Africa Southeast Asia
Polynesia/Micronesia Bangladesh-India-Pakistan
(a) Based on independent evaluations of: Gössling, S. and Hall, C. M. (2006); IPCC (2007b), Sumary for Policymakers, and estimation of
the authors.