The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

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7.4.1 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Hazards on Sectors Table 7.9 shows loss <strong>of</strong> Boro crop production by cyclone, Storm Surge and Hail storm over the last 10 years. In 2000 and 2004, wind based shocks affected Boro production in coastal districts and north-east region and caused 6.35% and 10.65% loss <strong>of</strong> production respectively. <strong>The</strong>refore, the increasing trend <strong>of</strong> these hazards will eventually affect the Boro rice production more intensively in future. Table 7.9: Damage to Boro rice Production due to Cyclone, Storm Surge and Hail storm (in M. Ton) Region 1994 1995 Sylhet 514610 555980 Chittagong 269000 300320 Noakhali 186040 232540 Faridpur 200400 219870 Barisal 65860 77410 Jessore 364600 424040 Khulna 114660 120510 Patuakhali Total 19530 21500 Production 1734700 1952170 Loss 0 0 Production + loss % <strong>of</strong> Loss 1734700 1952170 Source: Agricultural Statistics, 2005 Usually Aus and Aman rice are affected by flood on a regular basis. In the year 1998 and 2004, two catastrophic floods occurred and damaged the Aus and Aman production significantly. Available data shows that Aus production was decreased by 14.53% and 9.12% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. While, Aman production decreased by 10.70% and 8.86% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. <strong>The</strong>se two main crops are affected and damages are caused at different extents by flood almost every year. However, historical data <strong>of</strong> flood shows that intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> severe flood is in increasing trend which reflects higher damage <strong>of</strong> these two main crops. Table 7.10 to 7.12 shows loss <strong>of</strong> production <strong>of</strong> Boro, Aus and Aman due to flood. Table 7.10: Loss <strong>of</strong> Boro Rice due to Flood (in M Ton) Year Production Boro Loss Loss + Production % <strong>of</strong> Loss 1994 6538170 139080 6677250 2.08 1995 7221020 1996 7459920 1997 8137330 1998 10551900 23558 1999 0 2000 11920940 2001 11765500 2002 12221850 2003 12837230 2004 13837060 1996 568630 251090 243810 242950 88110 447600 134680 25860 2002730 25012 2027742 1.23 Source: Year Book <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Statistics, 2005 1997 597500 289490 262710 251600 95830 593260 138150 28510 2257050 2257050 <strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh - - - - - Year 1998 701090 376170 321060 342800 194350 732810 214930 13660 2896870 2896870 2000 762830 666350 543080 331350 608300 517220 664430 591110 4684670 317460 5002130 6.35 2001 745360 676750 513710 323150 581460 616810 691480 524420 4673140 18440 4691580 0.39 2002 800970 681580 552520 284220 623030 649750 775420 476420 4843910 247760 5091670 4.87 2003 848410 697760 551230 343150 596650 787060 720670 536,560 5081490 15610 5097100 0.31 10575458 0.22 2004 675563 665129 359728 221808 440382 618543 651199 539576 4171928 497220 4669148 10.65 69
Table 7.11: Loss <strong>of</strong> AUSRice due to Flood (in M Ton) Year Production Loss Loss + Production % <strong>of</strong> Loss 1993 0 71835 71835 1994 1790670 31565 1822235 1.73 1995 1676020 176970 1852990 9.55 1996 1870750 12558 1883308 0.67 1997 1874730 30117 1904847 1.58 1998 1616880 274875 1891755 14.53 1999 26510 26510 2000 8979640 - 8979640 2001 17808690 27540 17836230 0.15 2002 35617380 52030 35669410 0.15 2003 71234760 177880 71412640 0.25 2004 1500470 150590 1651060 9.12 Source: Year Book <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Statistics, 2005 Table 7.12: Loss <strong>of</strong> AMAN Rice due to Flood (in M.Ton) Aman Year Production Loss Loss + Production % <strong>of</strong> Loss 1993 115313 1994 8503950 3535 8507485 0.04 1995 8790330 541995 9332325 5.81 1996 9551780 8677 9560457 0.09 1997 8849900 6240 8856140 0.07 1998 7735850 927357 8663207 10.70 1999 242605 242605 2000 11248930 197970 11446900 1.73 2001 10726190 34870 10761060 0.32 2002 11114950 131890 11246840 1.17 2003 11520590 43880 11564470 0.38 2004 9819617 954500 10774117 8.86 Source: Year Book <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Statistics, 2005 7.4.2 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Hazards on GDP 1998 and 2004 were two years <strong>of</strong> multi-hazards, including severe floods (both riverine and flash). Contribution <strong>of</strong> crop agriculture to GDP has been reduced by 2.48% and 2.38% respectively. Compared to the percentage <strong>of</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> AMAN and AUS production with reduction <strong>of</strong> contribution <strong>of</strong> crop agriculture to GDP in 1998 and 2004, it is clear that the loss <strong>of</strong> production has posed a great impact on National GDP <strong>of</strong> the particular sector. Table 7.13: Change in Contribution to GDP due to CC related hazards GDP <strong>of</strong> three consecutive year (Million Taka) Hazard pr<strong>of</strong>ile Previous yr. Next yr. Crop Agriculture Same yr. Average Production Decrease PY & N Y Decrease in % Cyclone- Nov, 1970 - - - Cyclone-Nov. 1971 (2) - - Cyclone-Dec; Tornado- April, 1973 197661 22212 22352 109936.5 87584.5 79.67 Cyclone-Aug., Nov.; Riverine flood 1974 70 Aus 22352 25477 22212 23914.5 1702.5 7.12 <strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
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Policy Study on The</strong
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Foreword The Gener
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5.2.1 Observed Changes 26 5.2.1.1 T
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List of Tables Tab
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x ADB Asian Development Bank AEZ Ag
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Executive Summary The</stro
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Flood, drought, cyclone, sea level
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Responding to The
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Goal 2: Achieve universal primary e
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The Probable Impac
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The Probable Impac
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One of the critica
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3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts
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Page 72 and 73: Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history
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