The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on water will be more severe compared to existing situation. Moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on
water and sanitation will turn into severe to very severe as stated by the key experts. It is also noted that these
<strong>impacts</strong> will affect poverty at greater scale.
Table 7.8: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on water and sanitation, poverty and
economic growth
7.3.6 Health
It is revealed from the consultations that severe <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> flood, cyclone and sea level rise on health affect
poverty and economic growth severely causing malnutrition and health degradation. Drought and erratic
rainfall have moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on health and affects poverty and economic growth at a low to moderate scale.
<strong>The</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on health affect poverty because the poor has less capacity to respond to those <strong>impacts</strong>.
7.3.7 Education
Education is one <strong>of</strong> the major elements for accelerating poverty eradication and economic growth. Pertinently,
impact on education will affect poverty eradication and economic growth. <strong>The</strong> consultations reveal that severe
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> flood and cyclone on education affects poverty and economic growth severely whereas a moderate
impact <strong>of</strong> sea level rise’s affect on education affects poverty and economic growth at a low scale.
7.4 Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth
This study made an attempt to analyse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty and economic growth against
different <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> vulnerability contexts, particularly extreme events. It has followed the following logic to
assess <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic growth.
Impacts on Poverty = Level <strong>of</strong> Exposure = Frequency <strong>of</strong> Hazard x Number <strong>of</strong> exposed household <strong>of</strong> different
livelihood categories
Impacts on Economic Growth = Sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different sectors. But due to lack <strong>of</strong> data on <strong>impacts</strong> it has only
considered agriculture as a first step to understand the problems and also consider flood as one <strong>of</strong> the key
hazards.
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Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Key issues
Identified <strong>impacts</strong> Poverty Economic growth
Present Future
Present Future (2100 ) Present Future
(2100)
(2100)
Flood and river bank erosion Severe Very Moderate Very Moderate Very
Severe
Severe
Severe
Drought Moderate Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe
Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Very
Severe
Sea level rise Very
Severe
Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Salinity Intrusion Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Erratic Rainfall Moderate Very
Severe
Low Very
Severe
Low Very
Severe
Temperature Variation - -
-
- -
-
Heat wave Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe
Cold Wave - Severe - Severe - Severe
Fogginess
- -
-
- -
-
Incidence <strong>of</strong> Pest and diseases - - - - - -
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh