The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Climatic Events
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts (%)
Identified Impacts Poverty Economic growth
Drought 25 40 8 30 2 5
Cyclone 60 70 60 70 15 17
Coastal inundation 10 15 5 8 1 2
Erratic rainfall 20 30 10 20 2 4
Temperature variation 05 7 2 5 1 2
Heat wave - 2 - 1 - 1
Fogginess 10 15 2 3 1 1
Source: Consultation workshop with key experts, 2008
7.3.2 Fisheries
<strong>The</strong> workshops and key experts’ interviews revealed that flood and river bank erosion and cyclone and storm
surge have severe <strong>impacts</strong> on fisheries. It has been stated that these <strong>impacts</strong> affect poverty and economic growth
moderately. <strong>The</strong> experts explained that these shocks damage aquaculture infrastructure and cause fish loss. This
leads to loss <strong>of</strong> livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor fishermen and decrease nutrition status <strong>of</strong> the rural poor. Moreover,
frequent warnings <strong>of</strong> cyclone lead the fishermen to stay at home for longer periods and thus their income
decreased which increased their poverty level. Besides that, drought, salinity intrusion and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong>
rainfall affect moderately and as a result poverty and economic growth are also affected moderately. It is noted
here that poverty includes only the poor who are dependent on this particular sector. Similarly, the economic
growth includes only the growth <strong>of</strong> this particular sector and not national economic growth.
<strong>The</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on the fisheries sector will increase the poverty <strong>of</strong> the particular livelihood group
and economic growth <strong>of</strong> the sector. Severe <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> flood, drought, cyclone and storm surge, sea level rise and
salinity intrusion will affect poverty <strong>of</strong> the livelihood group severely as stated by the key experts <strong>of</strong> the fisheries
sector. Income <strong>of</strong> the poor, especially who are dependent on fisheries will reduce considerably. Moreover, they will
suffer from malnutrition due to reduction <strong>of</strong> fishing. Economic growth <strong>of</strong> fisheries sector will also be affected
moderately.
Table 7.5: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on fisheries, poverty and economic growth
Key issues
Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Identified <strong>impacts</strong> Poverty Economic growth
Present
Future
(2100)
Present
Future
(2100)
Present
Future
(2100)
Flood and river bank erosion Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate
Drought Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate
Sea level rise - Severe - Severe - Severe
Salinity Intrusion Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Erratic Rainfall Moderate Low Low Low Low Low
Temperature Variation Low Moderate Low Low Low Low
Heat waveave - Low - Low - Low
Cold Wave Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fogginess Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
Incidence <strong>of</strong> Pest and diseases - Moderate - Low - VeryLow
Source: Key experts’ workshop
65