The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Table 7.3: Poverty Gap and Squared Poverty gap by Region 2005
Division
7.3 Climate Change Impacts on Poverty and Economic Growth
Impacts <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty and economic growth has been assessed based on perception and
quantitative analysis. <strong>The</strong> quantitative analysis has been done based on dependence <strong>of</strong> household on different
sectors and exposure to different climatic events and their frequency. <strong>The</strong> following section provides summary <strong>of</strong>
findings.
7.3.1 Agriculture
<strong>The</strong> study has made an attempt to assess adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, variability and extremes on poverty
and economic growth related to crop agriculture. Discussion with experts focuses on shocks and time <strong>of</strong>
occurrence. It has been revealed that 50% reduction <strong>of</strong> crop production would increase poverty at the same
percentage. Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on economic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce
12% <strong>of</strong> GDP contribution for that particular time. Effects <strong>of</strong> cyclone are more severe than flood. <strong>The</strong> experts
agreed that 60% damage <strong>of</strong> crop by a cyclone increases poverty at the same percentage affecting their resources
and livelihoods, and decreases economic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty
eradication and hunger) is badly affected and pushed backward. <strong>The</strong> IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that
the intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> both flood and cyclone will increase in future. So, these two climatic shocks are a
major challenge for Bangladesh in implementing PRSP and attaining the MDGs.
<strong>The</strong> consultation workshop with the key experts suggested that <strong>change</strong>s in flood and cyclone characteristics will
affect crop agriculture very severely, which will affect poverty at the same scale. <strong>The</strong> poor will suffer mostly
because they have less capacity to respond to these shocks. <strong>The</strong> economic growth <strong>of</strong> the particular sector will
also be affected considerably. <strong>The</strong> experts suggested that reduction may rise up to 70-80% and <strong>impacts</strong> on
economic growth could be 17%. Moreover, drought and erratic rainfall will also reduce crop production by 40%
and 30% respectively, which will affect poverty moderately and economic growth at a lower scale. <strong>The</strong> following
table shows the level <strong>of</strong> present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on crop agriculture, poverty and
economic growth.
Table 7.4: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on crop agriculture, poverty and
economic growth.
Climatic Events
64
Poverty Gap Squared Poverty Gap
Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
Barisal 15.5 16.3 10.7 6.3 6.6 4.3
Chittagong 6.3 6.5 5.6 1.7 1.7 1.6
Dhaka 6.9 8.6 4.0 2.1 2.7 1.1
Khulna 10.8 10.4 12.3 3.5 3.2 4.6
Rajshahi 11.9 12.0 11.4 3.8 3.8 3.9
Sylhet 7.2 7.6 4.5 2.1 2.2 1.5
National
Source: BBS
9.0 9.8 6.5 2.9 3.1 2.1
Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts (%)
Identified Impacts Poverty Economic growth
Present Future Present Future Present Future
(2100)
(2100)
(2100)
Flood 50 80 50 80 12 17
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh