The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

24.11.2012 Views

extreme. Key difference will be frequency, intensity and scale ong>ofong> the problem. Similar to the present situation, flood will have both positive and negative ong>impactsong> in future. Flood will affect aquaculture infrastructure, pond siltation, habitat ong>ofong> fish breeding at larger scale while increased area under inundation and long duration is likely to increase open water fisheries. Drought will affect fish growth, breeding & production, increase disease vulnerability, reduce fishing season and reduce broods ong>ofong> natural SIS. Probable ong>impactsong> ong>ofong> cyclone are almost similar to existing ong>impactsong> but severity will be increased which will affect poverty at wider scale. Salinity intrusion and erratic rainfall will also affect fish production. 6.4 Livestock Assessment ong>ofong> ong>impactsong> ong>ofong> ong>climateong> ong>changeong> on livestock is also limited. However, it is suggested that extreme temperature and ong>climateong> ong>changeong> related natural disasters would affect livestock significantly. High temperature would affect livestock in a number ong>ofong> ways: causes great discomfort as in the case ong>ofong> human, decreases feed intake and alters nutrient metabolism leading to high loss ong>ofong> energy and the combined effects ong>ofong> discomfort and nutrient metabolism reduces their productivity, resulting in financial loss for the farmers. Apart from extreme temperature, natural disasters such as cyclone and tidal surge as mentioned above, also cause immense loss and sufferings to livestock through destruction ong>ofong> forage crops as well as housing. Deaths ong>ofong> livestock due to cyclone and storm surge are huge in the coastal area. ong>Theong> consultation workshops and key experts’ interviews state that livestock sector is badly affected by ong>climateong> variability and shocks. Flood, cyclone and sea level rise have major ong>impactsong> on livestock. Flood causes loss ong>ofong> livestock, damage pasturelands which increase fodder scarcity and diseases ong>ofong> livestock. Cyclone and storm surge causes huge loss ong>ofong> animal lives and shelters, damage ong>ofong> fodder, poor health and disease outbreak. Ultimately it results reduction ong>ofong> livestock population. Sea level rise and associated coastal inundation leads to inundation ong>ofong> pastureland and increase animal feed scarcity and increase incidence ong>ofong> animal diseases. It also reduces animal rearing coverage. Drought hampered the production ong>ofong> livestock, increase management cost through incidence ong>ofong> diseases and increase food scarcity which results poor health ong>ofong> livestock. Besides, salinity intrusion, temperature variation and heat wave cause harm to livestock affecting fodder land and health ong>ofong> poultry and other domesticated animals. It is difficult to have perception on the ong>impactsong> ong>ofong> ong>climateong> ong>changeong>, variability and extremes on livestock because there is no baseline information on these exist. But it is easily perceived that death and production ong>ofong> livestock will decrease considerably with increasing intensity and frequency ong>ofong> shocks. Production ong>ofong> livelihood will also hampered due to decrease ong>ofong> grazing lands, increase death ong>ofong> livestock etc. ong>Theong>se will lead to decrease health status affecting meat and milk production. 6.5 Forestry Cyclone and storm surges along with salinity intrusion are the major shocks for forestry sector, stated by the key experts. Cyclone damages forest and scale ong>ofong> damage depends on severity ong>ofong> cyclone and storm surges. ong>Theong> supper cyclone Sidr destructed one-quarter ong>ofong> the Sundarbans and almost 100% afforested trees along its path. It has been observed that all the trees at road sides as well as homesteads ong>ofong> about 10 to 15 years old have been destructed by the Sidr. It means, 10-15 years ong>ofong> investments ong>ofong> individuals on homestead forestry as well as afforestation have been simply diminished within only a few hours. Salinity intrusion has also adverse effects on freshwater forest ecosystem. It affects adversely the flora and fauna composition. Flood and river bank erosion moderately affect forest and cause loss ong>ofong> biodiversity, mortality ong>ofong> flood susceptible trees and plants and destroy both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. In the north-western part ong>ofong> the country, drought badly affects trees and plants due to moisture stress ong>ofong> the soil. Branches and leaves ong>ofong> trees are dried up due to lack ong>ofong> moisture and excessive evapo-transpiration. Besides, erratic rainfall, heat wave, and temperature variation cause harm to germination ong>ofong> seeds and transfer ong>ofong> species from one place to another. Temperature variation brings ong>changeong>s in species ong>ofong> natural hill forest. A large number ong>ofong> people depend on forest resources particularly on the natural forest and forest product. Forestry sector will be affected by ong>climateong> induced shocks and ong>changeong>s at higher scale. Flood will cause loss ong>ofong> trees and ong>Theong> Probable Impacts ong>ofong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options ong>ofong> Coping with adverse Effect ong>ofong> Climate Change in Bangladesh 49

plants, biodiversity ong>ofong> the affected forest and forest based industries and infrastructure. Cyclone and storm surge will simply destroy forest as well as homestead forest. Drought will affect forest causing drying up ong>ofong> branches and leaves and soil moisture stress. Flora and fauna composition will be severely affected by sea level rise and salinity intrusion. Temperature variation and erratic rainfall will ong>changeong> species composition and constraint germination which will reduce forest production considerably. 6.6 Water Supply and Sanitation ong>Theong> contexts ong>ofong> vulnerability ong>ofong> water and sanitation to ong>climateong> ong>changeong> stimuli including variability and extremes vary from region to region within the country. It is likely that the gradual ong>changeong> phenomena such as temperature rise and erratic behaviour ong>ofong> rainfall will lead to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity intrusion will deteriorate water quality in the coastal region. Climate ong>changeong> related extreme events particularly cyclone and storm surge will damage water supply and sanitation infrastructure particularly in the coastal region. Increase in summer temperature will increase water demand in the urban area for drinking and bathing as well as industrial water demand for cooling system. ong>Theong> competition ong>ofong> demand may aggravate the current conflict between domestic and industrial water supplies in the urban areas. Situation will be different in the rural area where availability and quality ong>ofong> rivers and artesian wells and pond water in the dry season will be deteriorated. Shortage ong>ofong> safe drinking water is likely to become more pronounced, especially in the coastal belt and drought prone areas in the north-west ong>ofong> the country. It is also likely that saline water boundary will be pushed more towards inland and vast areas will face severe water crisis in future. People now having access to fresh water will no longer enjoy this service. Due to cyclone and storm surge, huge volumes ong>ofong> saline water will come to the land area and contaminate freshwater ponds. ong>Theong>se will severely damage the existing drinking water sources. For instance, ponds for the Pond Sand Filters (PSF) and dug wells may be flooded with saline water. It may also contaminate hand tube wells and other sources as well. It is likely that unavailability and low quality will accentuate the prevailing drinking water crisis in the dry season. This will impose hardship on women and children, who are responsible for collecting drinking water for their families. Saline drinking water may also result in increase health hazards, especially for pregnant women. It appears that ong>climateong> ong>changeong> is likely to adversely affect women more than men. Climate is controlled mainly by the combined effects ong>ofong> atmosphere and hydrosphere. Naturally water is affected by ong>climateong> ong>changeong>, variability and extremes. Climate ong>changeong> affects water sector in different ways. In the monsoon, excessive rainfall causes flood and water logging which results in scarcity ong>ofong> drinking water, water borne diseases’ outbreak, damage ong>ofong> crops, infrastructure (embankments, roads, educational and social institutes), reduces income sources and livelihood options, and death ong>ofong> human beings and other animals. In the dry season, lack ong>ofong> rainfall causes scarcity ong>ofong> water for drinking, household activities and irrigation as well as diseases like dehydration, scabies and other infectious diseases. In the coastal area, cyclone and salinity intrusion affect fresh water sources severely. Cyclone damages water infrastructure, increases contamination ong>ofong> fresh water sources with saline water, causes water pollution which results in scarcity ong>ofong> drinking water and water for irrigation. Besides this, back water effects and coastal inundation reduces sources ong>ofong> fresh water and thus food production and other livelihoods are also affected. Water and sanitation will face severe ong>impactsong> ong>ofong> ong>climateong> ong>changeong> in future. Scarcity ong>ofong> drinking and irrigation water will be the major issue which will affect lives and livelihoods ong>ofong> the poor. Excessive water in the monsoon will damage settlements and infrastructure, disease outbreaks and even death at higher scale compared to the existing situation, whereas lack ong>ofong> rainfall in the monsoon will cause scarcity ong>ofong> water for drinking and sanitation. Drought will also create scarcity ong>ofong> water for irrigation which will affect crop production and decrease livelihood options ong>ofong> the poor. Cyclone and salinity in the coastal region will increase damage ong>ofong> fresh water sources and agricultural land which will also affect the livelihoods ong>ofong> the poor. Besides that, water borne diseases will affect human health severely. 50 ong>Theong> Probable Impacts ong>ofong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options ong>ofong> Coping with adverse Effect ong>ofong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

plants, biodiversity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the affected forest and forest based industries and infrastructure. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge<br />

will simply destroy forest as well as homestead forest. Drought will affect forest causing drying up <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> branches and<br />

leaves and soil moisture stress. Flora and fauna compositi<strong>on</strong> will be severely affected by sea level rise and salinity<br />

intrusi<strong>on</strong>. Temperature variati<strong>on</strong> and erratic rainfall will <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> species compositi<strong>on</strong> and c<strong>on</strong>straint germinati<strong>on</strong><br />

which will reduce forest producti<strong>on</strong> c<strong>on</strong>siderably.<br />

6.6 Water Supply and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>texts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> stimuli including variability and extremes<br />

vary from regi<strong>on</strong> to regi<strong>on</strong> within the country. It is likely that the gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> phenomena such as temperature<br />

rise and erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall will lead to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity<br />

intrusi<strong>on</strong> will deteriorate water quality in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events particularly<br />

cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge will damage water supply and sanitati<strong>on</strong> infrastructure particularly in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>.<br />

Increase in summer temperature will increase water demand in the urban area for drinking and bathing as well as<br />

industrial water demand for cooling system. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> competiti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> demand may aggravate the current c<strong>on</strong>flict<br />

between domestic and industrial water supplies in the urban areas. Situati<strong>on</strong> will be different in the rural area<br />

where availability and quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rivers and artesian wells and p<strong>on</strong>d water in the dry seas<strong>on</strong> will be deteriorated.<br />

Shortage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> safe drinking water is likely to become more pr<strong>on</strong>ounced, especially in the coastal belt and drought<br />

pr<strong>on</strong>e areas in the north-west <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country. It is also likely that saline water boundary will be pushed more<br />

towards inland and vast areas will face severe water crisis in future. People now having access to fresh water will no<br />

l<strong>on</strong>ger enjoy this service. Due to cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge, huge volumes <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> saline water will come to the land area<br />

and c<strong>on</strong>taminate freshwater p<strong>on</strong>ds. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se will severely damage the existing drinking water sources. For instance,<br />

p<strong>on</strong>ds for the P<strong>on</strong>d Sand Filters (PSF) and dug wells may be flooded with saline water. It may also c<strong>on</strong>taminate<br />

hand tube wells and other sources as well.<br />

It is likely that unavailability and low quality will accentuate the prevailing drinking water crisis in the dry seas<strong>on</strong>.<br />

This will impose hardship <strong>on</strong> women and children, who are resp<strong>on</strong>sible for collecting drinking water for their<br />

families. Saline drinking water may also result in increase health hazards, especially for pregnant women. It appears<br />

that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is likely to adversely affect women more than men.<br />

Climate is c<strong>on</strong>trolled mainly by the combined effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> atmosphere and hydrosphere. Naturally water is affected<br />

by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, variability and extremes. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> affects water sector in different ways. In the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong>,<br />

excessive rainfall causes flood and water logging which results in scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking water, water borne diseases’<br />

outbreak, damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crops, infrastructure (embankments, roads, educati<strong>on</strong>al and social institutes), reduces income<br />

sources and livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s, and death <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> human beings and other animals. In the dry seas<strong>on</strong>, lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall<br />

causes scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water for drinking, household activities and irrigati<strong>on</strong> as well as diseases like dehydrati<strong>on</strong>, scabies<br />

and other infectious diseases. In the coastal area, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> affect fresh water sources severely.<br />

Cycl<strong>on</strong>e damages water infrastructure, increases c<strong>on</strong>taminati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water sources with saline water, causes<br />

water polluti<strong>on</strong> which results in scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking water and water for irrigati<strong>on</strong>. Besides this, back water effects<br />

and coastal inundati<strong>on</strong> reduces sources <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water and thus food producti<strong>on</strong> and other livelihoods are also<br />

affected.<br />

Water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> will face severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in future. Scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking and irrigati<strong>on</strong> water<br />

will be the major issue which will affect lives and livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor. Excessive water in the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> will<br />

damage settlements and infrastructure, disease outbreaks and even death at higher scale compared to the existing<br />

situati<strong>on</strong>, whereas lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall in the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> will cause scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water for drinking and sanitati<strong>on</strong>. Drought<br />

will also create scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water for irrigati<strong>on</strong> which will affect crop producti<strong>on</strong> and decrease livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

the poor. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and salinity in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong> will increase damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water sources and agricultural<br />

land which will also affect the livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor. Besides that, water borne diseases will affect human health<br />

severely.<br />

50<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />

the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh

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