The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

found that boro rice would enjoy good harvest under severe <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario with doubling <strong>of</strong>
atmospheric concentration <strong>of</strong> CO (Karim et al., 1999).
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<strong>The</strong> apparent increase in yield <strong>of</strong> boro (dry season rice crop generally grown under irrigated conditions and
includes high yielding varieties) and other crops might be constrained by moisture stress. A 60 % moisture stress
on top <strong>of</strong> other effects might cause as high as 32 % decline in boro yield, instead <strong>of</strong> having an overall 20 % net
increase. It is feared that moisture stress would be more intense during the dry season, which might force the
Bangladeshi farmers to reduce the area for boro cultivation. Shortfall in foodgrain production would severely
threaten food security <strong>of</strong> the poverty-ridden country.
Under a severe (4oC temperature rise) <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario the potential shortfall in rice production could
exceed 30 % from the trend, while that for wheat and potato could be as high as 50 % and 70 % respectively
(Karim, 1996). Under a moderate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario the crop loss due to salinity intrusion could be about
0.2 Mt (Habibullah et al., 1998). <strong>The</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> production due to such effects may be relatively higher compared to
that under floods. However, the loss incurred in other sectors could be much higher in case <strong>of</strong> floods than the
direct climatic <strong>change</strong>s. <strong>The</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> low-flow on agricultural vulnerability is considered to be much less intense
compared to other effects. <strong>The</strong> ultimate <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> food grain production would increase import <strong>of</strong> food
which will require spending hard currency.
6.3 Fisheries
<strong>The</strong>re is limited quantitative assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on fisheries but it is anticipated that
aquaculture will be affected adversely due to increased flooding and lack <strong>of</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> water in the dry season.
While production may increase in open water fisheries as a result <strong>of</strong> monsoon flood. <strong>The</strong>refore, total production <strong>of</strong>
freshwater fishes may remain same. It is also expected that composition <strong>of</strong> coastal fisheries may <strong>change</strong> overtime
as a result <strong>of</strong> coastal inundation and salinity intrusion. It is also anticipated that livestock will face fodder crisis in
the coastal and heat related stress in the north-west region <strong>of</strong> the country.
6.3.1 Existing Impacts – Perception
Climate <strong>change</strong> will have both negative and positive <strong>impacts</strong> on fisheries. <strong>The</strong> positive impact is possible increase
in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the <strong>impacts</strong> would not be remarkable in national context
rather it would affect investment at individual level. <strong>The</strong> key experts’ interviews and consultation workshops
revealed that flood and cyclone affect culture fisheries severely while affect <strong>of</strong> other shocks such as drought,
salinity intrusion, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. Flood causes fish loss
damaging pond dykes, hatcheries, nurseries and embankments. It also affects fish production through disease
outbreaks and pond siltation. Fish production may also be hampered by affecting breeding ground <strong>of</strong> fish due to
siltation <strong>of</strong> fish habitat. <strong>The</strong>se affect livelihoods <strong>of</strong> fishermen and fish farmers.
Coastal aquaculture and fisheries are severely affected by cyclone and storm surges. Cyclone causes destruction <strong>of</strong>
fishers’ lives and properties (boats, nets etc.). It damages fish landing and marketing centres, aquaculture
infrastructure including embankments, sluice gate, hatcheries, and nurseries. In the drought prone areas, fish
production decreases due to drying up <strong>of</strong> inland water bodies or limited availability <strong>of</strong> water. It also affects fish
stock, growth and breeding <strong>of</strong> fishes. Moreover, drought causes disease outbreaks, reduction <strong>of</strong> fisheries seasons
and declination <strong>of</strong> broods <strong>of</strong> natural SIS.
Salinity intrusion affects freshwater fisheries by decreasing inland water bodies. It decreases income and nutrition
<strong>of</strong> rural poor but has positive <strong>impacts</strong> on coastal shrimp culture. Erratic rainfall adversely affect natural spawning
<strong>of</strong> fish including major carp spawning in Halda river and Kaptai lake and ultimately fish production and fishers.
Cold wave and fogginess also adversely affect fisheries. Cold wave affects breeding performance and growth <strong>of</strong>
fish species which reduces fish production. Besides, fogginess causes fish mortality in aquaculture pond and small
water bodies due to depletion <strong>of</strong> dissolve oxygen.
6.3.2 Future Impacts
It is likely that fisheries sector will face the similar problem related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> including variability and
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<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh