The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Table 6.9 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Coastal Areas
Major Changes and Impacts
Crop loss/Yield
reduction (%)
Soil salinitywill be increased with extent and severity 20
Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparation
Degradation <strong>of</strong> soil physical/chemical properties due to prolonged water
10
stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies <strong>of</strong> S and Znwetland rice
cultivation.
20
Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soilwetness)
that create problems in land preparation
Late planting <strong>of</strong> rabi crops due to delaying in recession <strong>of</strong> flood water
and soil wetness
Damage <strong>of</strong> standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to moisture
stress and salinity
20
Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in Rabi,
Kharif-I and Kharif-II season
Fallow:50%
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase)
Rainfed aus crop will be affected bydrought and salinity 20
Boro and wheat will be affected by salinity 20
Conversion <strong>of</strong> crop land into shrimp culture 30
Increasing incidences <strong>of</strong> pests and diseases
Decreasing income source <strong>of</strong> the poor in coastal areas
20
6.2.3 Future Impacts – Model Result
Various studies indicate that a temperature rise <strong>of</strong> 1 to 20C in combination with lower solar radiation causes
sterility in rice spikelets. High temperature was found to reduce yields <strong>of</strong> HYVs <strong>of</strong> aus, aman and boro rice in all
study locations and in all seasons. <strong>The</strong> effect was particularly evident at a rise <strong>of</strong> temperature by 40C. Climate
<strong>change</strong>s, especially in temperature, humidity and radiation, have great effects on the incidence <strong>of</strong> insect pests,
diseases and microorganisms. A <strong>change</strong> <strong>of</strong> 10C <strong>change</strong>s the virulence <strong>of</strong> some races <strong>of</strong> rust infecting wheat.
<strong>The</strong> production <strong>of</strong> crop in Bangladesh is constrained by too much water during the wet season and too little
during the dry season. Presently total irrigated area is 4.4 million ha which is more than 50 % <strong>of</strong> the potentially
irrigable area <strong>of</strong> 7.12 million ha cultivated area. This area is being irrigated through surface and ground water.
Irrigation coverage through Shallow tubewells (STWs) during the dry period has grown very fast following a
policy <strong>of</strong> privatization and deregulation. As a result, the groundwater table in Bangladesh is declining at a rapid
rate causing STWs to become non-operational in many parts <strong>of</strong> the country during dry period. Lack <strong>of</strong> surface
water during the dry season limits the function <strong>of</strong> Low Lift Pumps.
<strong>The</strong> GFDL model predicted about 17 % decline in overall rice production and as high as 61 per cent decline in
wheat production compared to the baseline situation <strong>of</strong> 1990 under 4 degree <strong>change</strong>s in temperature. <strong>The</strong>
highest impact would be on wheat followed by rice (aus variety). This translates to a reduction <strong>of</strong> 4.5 million tons
<strong>of</strong> rice at the present level (2002) <strong>of</strong> production. Of the three varieties <strong>of</strong> rice grown in Bangladesh, the aus rice
(grown during the summer, monsoon period under rain-fed conditions) seems to be the most vulnerable. <strong>The</strong>
other model, Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM) predicted a significant fall in food-grain production. It
should be noted, however, that this scenario was based on projecting existing cropping patterns into the futurewhich
is not necessarily what will happen, as there are signs <strong>of</strong> significant <strong>change</strong>s already taking place in
cropping patterns.
It was noticed that temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 4 o C would have severe impact on food-grain production, especially
for wheat production. On the other hand, carbon-dioxide fertilization would facilitate food-grain production. A
rise in temperature would cause significant decrease in production <strong>of</strong> 28 % and 68 % for rice and wheat
respectively. Moreover, doubling <strong>of</strong> atmospheric concentration <strong>of</strong> CO2 in combination with a similar rise in
temperature would result in an overall 20 % rise in rice production and 31 % decline in wheat production. It was
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
20
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