The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

6.2.2 Future Impacts – Perception
<strong>The</strong> <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on crop agriculture will be aggravated in future since the frequency and
intensity <strong>of</strong> shocks and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature will increase, stated by the key experts <strong>of</strong>
agriculture sector. Historical data also states that frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> flood and cyclone will increase which
will affect crop agriculture at a greater scale. <strong>The</strong> major effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will include <strong>change</strong>s in
cropping pattern and crop variety, reduction <strong>of</strong> coverage <strong>of</strong> Rabi crops, <strong>change</strong>s <strong>of</strong> Boro season, extent <strong>of</strong>
damage <strong>of</strong> standing crops. T. Aman, wheat and pulses will suffer more due to increase severity and area <strong>of</strong>
drought. <strong>The</strong> experts from SRDI informed that the high land crop will be affected by <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> very
severely, medium high land severely and medium lowland & low land will be un<strong>change</strong>d. It is also informed that
most <strong>of</strong> the climatic events will degrade the quality <strong>of</strong> soil. <strong>The</strong> respondent said that the more developed soil, the
poorer quality <strong>of</strong> soil. Frequent flood, erratic rainfall and temperature variation will increase biotic activity,
decomposition, porosity and permeability <strong>of</strong> soil which will affect crop agriculture. <strong>The</strong>se <strong>impacts</strong> will vary in
different ecological zones. <strong>The</strong> following tables show the perceptions <strong>of</strong> future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>,
variability and extremes in different ecological zones on crop agriculture:
Table 6.7 Perception <strong>of</strong> Future Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Flood prone areas
Major <strong>change</strong>s and <strong>impacts</strong>
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
Deposition <strong>of</strong> SOM will be increased in low-lying areas 10
Minerals and coarse materials will be increased in char lands with areas and
10
extent
Cropping pattern, cropping season and variety <strong>of</strong> crops will be <strong>change</strong>d 10
Coverage <strong>of</strong> rabi crops will be decreased 15
Prolonged flood/Late flood will delay rabi crops 10
Increase intensity/severity <strong>of</strong> flash floods will hamper Boro cultivation in Haor
50
basins
Overall cropyield will be decreased due to degradation <strong>of</strong> soil quality and
15
climatic hazards
Table 6.8 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Drought Prone Areas
46
Major <strong>change</strong>s and <strong>impacts</strong>
Soil reserve nutrients will be decreased due to increased mineralization,
depletion <strong>of</strong> SOM and intensive cultivation
Dry-land crop varieties will be <strong>change</strong>d
T. Aman will highly be affected by drought and moisture stress
Chickpea, tomato will be affected at higher temperature
Flowering and grain-filling stage <strong>of</strong> wheat and T. Aman will be affected seriously by
temperature variation and decreased winter period and moisture stress
Sterility <strong>of</strong> wheat, pulses and oilseeds will be increased due to increased fogginess
Seedlings <strong>of</strong> Boro will be hampered due to cold wave
Cold wave will affect mustard, chickpea, lentil, and other rabi crops at the stage <strong>of</strong>
flowering and grain filling and cause yield reduction
Disease <strong>of</strong> potato will be increased due to cold wave and fogginess
Crop loss/Yield
reduction
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
20
30
TA-30, wheat 20
and mustard 10
30
30
10
20
20