The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Major Changes and Impacts
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
Wheat is affected by drought and shorter winter period 20
Rabicrops/vegetables, pulses being affected due to moisture stress
and fogginess
30
Fruit dropping due to moisture stress, B deficiency and fogginess 30
Increasing incidence <strong>of</strong> pests and diseases
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008
Table 6.5 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in
the Coast Areas
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Major Changes and Impacts
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
15
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
Increasing soil salinity with extent and severity 20
Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparation 15
Degradation <strong>of</strong> soil physical/chemical properties due to prolonged
25
water stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies <strong>of</strong> S and Zn
wetland rice cultivation.
Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soil
30
wetness) that create problems in land preparation
Late planting <strong>of</strong> rabi crops due to delaying in recession <strong>of</strong> flood water
20
and soil wetness
Damage <strong>of</strong> standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to
30
moisture stress and salinity
Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in
Fallow: 50%
Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II season
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase)
Rainfed aus crop is affected by drought and salinity
Boro and wheat is affected by salinity
Conversion <strong>of</strong> crop land into shrimp culture
Increasing incidences <strong>of</strong> pests and diseases
Decreasing income source <strong>of</strong> the poor in coastal areas
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008
Experts have also expressed their views on changing cropping pattern. Changes in characteristics such as
untimely and prolonged flooding, erratic rainfall, temperature variation, prolonged drought, <strong>change</strong>s in the
length <strong>of</strong> winter and summer seasons have identified as <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related drivers. Key experts informed
that the length <strong>of</strong> winter season is decreasing whereas summer is increasing. Present cropping seasons are also
facing uneven distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature variation which is leading seasonal adjustment in the
cropping pattern and in most cases these are temporary <strong>change</strong>s. Moreover, crop land is transferring to
horticulture especially in the drought prone area. This reduces rice crop production considerably at local level
but significant implication is limiting rural livelihood opportunities in crop agriculture.
Damage <strong>of</strong> crop is another key effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> variability and extremes. Flood (all types) and cyclone damage
standing crops severely. Department <strong>of</strong> Agriculture Extension (DAE) under the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Agriculture has
30
20
30
20