The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Table 6.2 Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Different Sectors
Physical Vulnerability Context
Extreme
Temperature
42
Sea Level Rise
Coastal
Inundation
Salinity
Intrusion
Flood
Drought River
Flood
Flash
Flood
Cyclone
and
Storm
Surges
+++ ++ +++ +++ + ++ +++ -
Erosion
and
Accretion
Sectoral
Vulnerability
Context
Crop
Agriculture
++ + + ++ ++ + + - Fisheries
++ ++ +++ - - + +++ - Livestock
+ ++ - ++ + + +++ Infrastructure
++ +++ ++ - ++ + + - Industries
++ +++ +++ - ++ - + - Biodiversity
+++ + +++ - ++ - ++ - Health
- - - - - - +++ +++
Human
Settlement
++ + - - + - + - Energy
Source: NAPA
6.2 Impacts on Crop Agriculture
Agricultural crop <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is influenced by seasonal characteristics and different variables <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> such
as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc. It is also <strong>of</strong>ten constrained by different disasters such as floods,
droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclone and storm surges. Several studies indicated that <strong>climate</strong> is changing and
becoming more unpredictable every year in Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong>re is a strong possibility that moisture content <strong>of</strong>
the topsoil in the north-western region would decrease substantially resulting from decrease in winter
precipitation and higher evapo-transpiration.
Degradation <strong>of</strong> productive land including quality and physical loss are key concerns for coastal agriculture due
to salinity intrusion and sea level rise. Drainage congestion and water logging is very likely in the coastal region
as a result <strong>of</strong> combined effect <strong>of</strong> higher sea water levels, subsidence, sedimentation <strong>of</strong> estuary branches, higher
riverbed levels and reduced sedimentation in flood-protected areas.
<strong>The</strong> higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the
coastal belt, droughts in the northwest and southwest, and drainage congestions are likely to reduce crop yields
and crop production. Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model result shows that
yield reduction will vary by types <strong>of</strong> crops and their growing season. IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice production
in Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent.
6.2.1 Existing Impacts – Perception
Result <strong>of</strong> the expert interviews revealed that the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> including variability and extremes on
crops are multi-dimensional. Nature <strong>of</strong> variability and extreme, location and season are important determinant <strong>of</strong>
level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>. <strong>The</strong> main crop, rice, is severely affected by extreme particularly flood, drought, cyclone and storm
surges. Other factors are salinity intrusion and temperature variation and rainfall.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh