The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

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Cyclone Year Maximum Wind Speed (Kph) Oc t. 1970 163 <strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh Surge Height (m) Causalities Nov. 1970 224 10 500000 Dec. 1973 111 4.55 1000 Nov. 1974 161 5.1 20 Jun. 1975 83 5 May. 1977 120 Dec. 1981 167 4.55 72 Oct. 1983 122 43 Nov. 1983 135 1.5 300 May. 1985 154 4.55 10000 Nov. 1986 110 0.61 60 Nov. 1988 161 4.4 568 3 Apr. 1991 225 7.6 1,38,882 Jun. 1991 110 2.5 300 Nov. 1992 50 Apr. 1994 210 4.85 184 Nov. 1995 210 650 May. 1997 230 4.55 155 Sep. 1997 150 3.05 67 May. 1998 150 2.44 Nov. 1998 90 2.44 Nov. 2007 220 4.5 3000 Source: SMRC and Wikipedia. Table 4.10 shows that 15 most damaging cyclones have struck Bangladesh very badly. Among those 4 were catastrophic and killer cyclones which struck in 1919, 1970, 1991 and 2007. <strong>The</strong> damaging cyclonic events have been identified depending on wind speed and surge height. <strong>The</strong> cyclones which have wind speed <strong>of</strong> 120 kph and surge height <strong>of</strong> 4.5 m have taken into account. Since cyclones have potential to cause severe damage to agriculture, district wise frequency and affected household along with their vulnerability <strong>of</strong> being affected by cyclone have been presented in the following table. 5.4.3 Changes in Drought Bangladesh experiences major droughts once in 5 years. Droughts at local scale are much more frequent and affect part <strong>of</strong> the crop life cycle. <strong>The</strong> western part <strong>of</strong> the country is vulnerable to drought during pre-monsoon period. 35
During the last 50 years, Bangladesh suffered about 20 drought conditions. <strong>The</strong> drought condition in northwestern Bangladesh in recent decades had led to a shortfall <strong>of</strong> rice production <strong>of</strong> 3.5 million tons in the 1990s. If other losses, such as, to other crops (all rabi crops, sugarcane, tobacco, wheat http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/HT/S_0582.htm, etc) as well as to perennial agricultural resources, such as, bamboo, betel nut, fruits like litchi, mango, jackfruit, banana etc. are considered, the loss will be substantially much higher. Current Severe drought can affect yield in 30% <strong>of</strong> the country, reducing national production by 10%. 2030 Temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 0.5˚C and annual rainfall reduction <strong>of</strong> 5% could reduce run<strong>of</strong>f into the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers by 14%, 11% and 8%, respectively. With 12% reduction in run<strong>of</strong>f, the population living in severe drought-prone areas increases from 4% to 9% under moderate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Table 5.11 provides the exiting drought affected areas under different drought classes. Table 5.11 Exiting Drought Affected Areas under Different Drought Classes Drought Class Rabi Pre-Kharif Kharif Very Severe 0.446 0.403 0.344 Severe 1.71 1.15 0.74 Moderate 2.95 4.76 3.17 Slight 4.21 4.09 2.90 No Drought 3.17 2.09 0.68 Non-T. Aman 4.71 Future droughts may increase the probability <strong>of</strong> a dry year, meaning a year with a certain percentage <strong>of</strong> belowaverage rainfall, by 4.4 times by 2050. Temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 1.3˚C and precipitation decrease <strong>of</strong> 9% would reduce run<strong>of</strong>f into the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rivers by 27%, 21% and 15%, respectively. If run<strong>of</strong>f drops 22% in kharif season, drought-prone areas would expand to include north-western to central, western and south-western regions (GoB, 2005) 36 <strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Page 2 and 3: Policy Study on The</strong
Page 4: Foreword The Gener
Page 7 and 8: 5.2.1 Observed Changes 26 5.2.1.1 T
Page 9 and 10: List of Tables Tab
Page 11 and 12: x ADB Asian Development Bank AEZ Ag
Page 14 and 15: Executive Summary The</stro
Page 16 and 17: Flood, drought, cyclone, sea level
Page 18: Responding to The
Page 21 and 22: Goal 2: Achieve universal primary e
Page 24: The Probable Impac
Page 31 and 32: One of the critica
Page 33 and 34: 3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts
Page 36 and 37: 4.1 Climate Change - Global Context
Page 38: the glaciers recede. Freshwater ava
Page 42 and 43: 5. Bangladesh is already vulnerable
Page 44 and 45: during the month of</strong
Page 46 and 47: 5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salini
Page 48 and 49: 5.4 Extreme Climatic Events Natural
Page 50 and 51: Source: BWDB, 2007 (Annual flood re
Page 54: Table 5.12 Drought Affected Area 17
Page 58 and 59: 6.1 Context of Vul
Page 60 and 61: Reduction of crop
Page 62 and 63: estimated that 1.39, 1.26 and 14.48
Page 64 and 65: Table 6.9 Perception of</st
Page 66 and 67: extreme. Key difference will be fre
Page 68 and 69: 6.7 Industry and Infrastructure Cli
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Page 72 and 73: Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history
Page 78 and 79: 7. Relationship among clima
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Page 82 and 83: Climatic Events The</strong
Page 84 and 85: This has moderate impacts</
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Page 88 and 89: Hazard profile Cyc
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Exposed Systems Forestry 86 Exposed
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Exposed Systems Homestead 9.2 Reduc
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Exposed Systems Fisheries Forestry
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Exposed Systems Housing Aquaculture
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10. In order to address adverse <st
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10.5 Immediate Projects for Impleme
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The Probable Impac
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each ministry); focusing, to start
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12.1 Climate Climate in a narrow se
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20. MoEF (2005). National Adaptatio
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Sl No. Name and Designation Sector
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Sl No. Name and Designation Sector
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