The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

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during the month <strong>of</strong> June, July and August. On the other hand annual average rainfall for Rangpur is 2270 mm <strong>of</strong> which 1294 mm occurs during the month <strong>of</strong> June, July and August. It is found from the analysis that number <strong>of</strong> days without rainfall in Bogra station is showing an increasing trend while total annual rainfall is showing decreasing trend. It is also to be noted that the <strong>change</strong> is not significant and relationship is not very strong. It is found from the analysis that both number <strong>of</strong> days without rainfall and annual total rainfall in Rangpur is increasing, which means more rain is occurring in short duration. It also reflects erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall. It is also to be noted that the <strong>change</strong> is not significant and relationship is not very strong. Figure 3.2 shows <strong>change</strong>s in annual rainfall and days without rainfall with their trend in Rangpur Station. Figure 5.1 Change in Trend <strong>of</strong> Annual Rainfall and Days-without Rain (Rangpur Station) Days without Rainfall 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 1972 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario General Circulation Model (GCM) and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) have been run to develop future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios for Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong> GCM is a global scale model where PRECIS is a regional scale model. Both models output indicate a steady increase in temperatures along with increased trend <strong>of</strong> summer monsoon precipitation with higher level <strong>of</strong> inter seasonal variability. Global Circulation Model (GCM) predicts an average temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 1.0ºC by 2030, 1.4ºC by 2050 and 2.4ºC by 2100. <strong>The</strong> results also revealed somewhat more warming during the winter months than during the summer. GCM also estimates that precipitation will increase between 6 to 12% during monsoon months (June, July and August) in 2030 and 2100 respectively while small decreases in the winter months (December, January and February) also predicts. However, value <strong>of</strong> standard deviation from mean suggests that <strong>change</strong>s are not statistically significant (Agrawala et al., 2003). <strong>The</strong> PREICS model result shows that temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall vary over space and time. Value <strong>of</strong> some months is much higher than the season or annual average. Annual average <strong>of</strong> maximum temperature show an increasing trend but shows that increase over time will decline while minimum temperature shows gradual increase over time. Projection shows that rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons will increase while rainfall in the dry season will remain closer to historical amount. Rainfall in premonsoon shows erratic nature. It predicts that rainfall will increase about 4, 2.3 and 6.7 percent in 2030, 2050 and 2070 respectively in reference to the observed baseline period 1961-1990 (BUET, 2008). Table 5.1 shows summary <strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh 1980 y = 0.4483x + 247.86 R 2 = 0.0282 y = 12.565x + 2067.6 R 2 = 0.041 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Days without Rain Annual Total Linear (Annual Total) Linear (Days without Rain) 2001 2002 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Rainfall in mm 27
<strong>of</strong> future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario generated by using GCM and PRECIS models while Table 5.2 shows <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario <strong>of</strong> different seasons and geographical regions <strong>of</strong> the country. Table 5.1 Climate Change Scenario for Bangladesh Model Year Source: MoEF, 2005, BUET, 2008 Note: * JJAS Table 5.2 Climate <strong>change</strong> scenarios <strong>of</strong> different seasons and geographical region <strong>of</strong> the country Source: BUET, 2008 28 Temperature <strong>change</strong> (˚C) Mean (standard deviation) GCM 2030 1.0 1.1 PRECIS 2030 (Max) Precipitation <strong>change</strong> (%) Mean (standard deviation) Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA 0.3- 0.02 0.8 5 -2 6 1.3* 2030 (Min) 1.18 0.65 1.78* 4 -8.7 3.8 GCM 2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 -5 8 PRECIS Rainfall Change (%) Maximum Temperature Change (C) Minimum Temperature Change (C) 2050 (Max) 0.2 0.07 0.89* 2050 (Min) 1.24 0.59 1.65* 2.3 -4.7 3.0 Sea Level Rise (cm) DJF MAM 2030 JJAS ON Ann NE -9.6 9.0 4.2 24.6 7.0 SE -5.3 3.3 -3.3 14.3 2.3 NW -17.9 2.0 27.0 4.6 3.9 SW -3.6 -2.9 -5.5 19.8 2.0 BD -8.7 4.1 3.8 16.6 4.0 NE 0.22 -0.05 -0.26 -0.33 -0.10 SE 0.10 0.56 0.70 -0.59 0.30 NW -0.31 0.03 0.16 -0.26 -0.06 SW -012 0.09 0.30 -0.90 -0.0 6 BD -0.03 0.16 0.23 -0.52 0.02 NE 0.20 0.69 0.48 0.13 0.40 SE 0.27 0.41 0.78 -0.46 0.35 NW 0.06 0.42 0.69 0.20 0.38 SW 0.01 0.40 0.62 0.33 0.36 BD 0.13 0.48 0.64 0.05 0.37 <strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh 14 32
Page 2 and 3: Policy Study on The</strong
Page 4: Foreword The Gener
Page 7 and 8: 5.2.1 Observed Changes 26 5.2.1.1 T
Page 9 and 10: List of Tables Tab
Page 11 and 12: x ADB Asian Development Bank AEZ Ag
Page 14 and 15: Executive Summary The</stro
Page 16 and 17: Flood, drought, cyclone, sea level
Page 18: Responding to The
Page 21 and 22: Goal 2: Achieve universal primary e
Page 24: The Probable Impac
Page 31 and 32: One of the critica
Page 33 and 34: 3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts
Page 36 and 37: 4.1 Climate Change - Global Context
Page 38: the glaciers recede. Freshwater ava
Page 42 and 43: 5. Bangladesh is already vulnerable
Page 46 and 47: 5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salini
Page 48 and 49: 5.4 Extreme Climatic Events Natural
Page 50 and 51: Source: BWDB, 2007 (Annual flood re
Page 52 and 53: Cyclone Year Maximum Wind Speed (Kp
Page 54: Table 5.12 Drought Affected Area 17
Page 58 and 59: 6.1 Context of Vul
Page 60 and 61: Reduction of crop
Page 62 and 63: estimated that 1.39, 1.26 and 14.48
Page 64 and 65: Table 6.9 Perception of</st
Page 66 and 67: extreme. Key difference will be fre
Page 68 and 69: 6.7 Industry and Infrastructure Cli
Page 70 and 71: 6.8.1 Impacts of C
Page 72 and 73: Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history
Page 78 and 79: 7. Relationship among clima
Page 80 and 81: of food insecurity
Page 82 and 83: Climatic Events The</strong
Page 84 and 85: This has moderate impacts</
Page 86 and 87: 7.4.1 Impacts of H
Page 88 and 89: Hazard profile Cyc
Page 90 and 91: 7.4.3.5 % of HH Ex
Page 92 and 93: Figure 7.1 Existing Impacts <strong
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The Probable Impac
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Binding boats and nets with trees C
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The Probable Impac
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Exposed Systems Forestry 86 Exposed
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Exposed Systems Homestead 9.2 Reduc
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Exposed Systems Fisheries Forestry
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Exposed Systems Housing Aquaculture
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Exposed Systems Health Fogginess Di
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10. In order to address adverse <st
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10.5 Immediate Projects for Impleme
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The Probable Impac
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each ministry); focusing, to start
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12.1 Climate Climate in a narrow se
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20. MoEF (2005). National Adaptatio
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Sl No. Name and Designation Sector
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Sl No. Name and Designation Sector
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Exposed Systems Health Fogginess Di
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