The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

during the month <strong>of</strong> June, July and August. On the other hand annual average rainfall for Rangpur is 2270 mm <strong>of</strong>
which 1294 mm occurs during the month <strong>of</strong> June, July and August.
It is found from the analysis that number <strong>of</strong> days without rainfall in Bogra station is showing an increasing trend
while total annual rainfall is showing decreasing trend. It is also to be noted that the <strong>change</strong> is not significant and
relationship is not very strong. It is found from the analysis that both number <strong>of</strong> days without rainfall and annual
total rainfall in Rangpur is increasing, which means more rain is occurring in short duration. It also reflects erratic
behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall. It is also to be noted that the <strong>change</strong> is not significant and relationship is not very strong.
Figure 3.2 shows <strong>change</strong>s in annual rainfall and days without rainfall with their trend in Rangpur Station.
Figure 5.1 Change in Trend <strong>of</strong> Annual Rainfall and Days-without Rain (Rangpur Station)
Days without Rainfall
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
1972
1973
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario
General Circulation Model (GCM) and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) have been run to
develop future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios for Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong> GCM is a global scale model where PRECIS is a
regional scale model. Both models output indicate a steady increase in temperatures along with increased trend
<strong>of</strong> summer monsoon precipitation with higher level <strong>of</strong> inter seasonal variability. Global Circulation Model (GCM)
predicts an average temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 1.0ºC by 2030, 1.4ºC by 2050 and 2.4ºC by 2100. <strong>The</strong> results also
revealed somewhat more warming during the winter months than during the summer. GCM also estimates that
precipitation will increase between 6 to 12% during monsoon months (June, July and August) in 2030 and 2100
respectively while small decreases in the winter months (December, January and February) also predicts.
However, value <strong>of</strong> standard deviation from mean suggests that <strong>change</strong>s are not statistically significant (Agrawala
et al., 2003).
<strong>The</strong> PREICS model result shows that temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall vary over space and
time. Value <strong>of</strong> some months is much higher than the season or annual average. Annual average <strong>of</strong> maximum
temperature show an increasing trend but shows that increase over time will decline while minimum
temperature shows gradual increase over time. Projection shows that rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon
seasons will increase while rainfall in the dry season will remain closer to historical amount. Rainfall in premonsoon
shows erratic nature. It predicts that rainfall will increase about 4, 2.3 and 6.7 percent in 2030, 2050 and
2070 respectively in reference to the observed baseline period 1961-1990 (BUET, 2008). Table 5.1 shows summary
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
1980
y = 0.4483x + 247.86
R 2 = 0.0282
y = 12.565x + 2067.6
R 2 = 0.041
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Days without Rain Annual Total
Linear (Annual Total) Linear (Days without Rain)
2001
2002
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Rainfall in mm
27