The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

provide a) summary <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios including regional variation and variation between global and
regional models, b) <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors including water, agriculture and health.
5.2 Present and Future Scenario <strong>of</strong> Climate
5.2.1 Observed Changes
5.2.1.1 Temperature
<strong>The</strong> observed climatic data from 1971 to 2002 indicate that the temperature is generally increasing in the
monsoon season (June, July and August). <strong>The</strong> average monsoon maximum and minimum temperatures show an
increasing trend annually at 0.05˚C and 0.03˚C, respectively. Average winter season (December, January and
February) maximum and minimum temperature show respectively a decreasing and an increasing trend annually
at 0.001˚C and 0.016˚C (Rahman Alam: 2003). It is also revealed that 1998 was the warmest year in the last 30 years.
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) has studied surface climatological data on monthly and annual
mean maximum and minimum temperature, and monthly and annual rainfall for the period <strong>of</strong> 1961-90. <strong>The</strong>
study showed an increasing trend <strong>of</strong> mean maximum and minimum temperature in some seasons and
decreasing trend in some others. Overall trend <strong>of</strong> the annual mean maximum temperature has shown a
significant increase over the period <strong>of</strong> 1961-90. Regional variations have been observed around the average
trend (SMRC, 2003).
Bogra and Rangpur are two among other meteorological stations in the northwest region <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh.
Observed data <strong>of</strong> the Bogra Station from 1971 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum
temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.008˚C and 0.003˚C, respectively. However, rate <strong>of</strong>
<strong>change</strong> in the monsoon season is higher than annual rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>. In monsoon season (June, July and August),
average maximum and minimum temperature show an increasing trend annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.033˚C and
0.014˚C, respectively which means monsoon season is becoming warmer. On the other hand average maximum
temperature in winter season (December, January and February) shows almost no <strong>change</strong> while minimum
temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.035˚C which means winter is also becoming
warmer.
Observed data <strong>of</strong> the Rangpur Station from 1978 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum
temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.035˚C and 0.027˚C, respectively. However, rate <strong>of</strong>
<strong>change</strong> <strong>of</strong> maximum temperature in the monsoon season is slightly lower than annual rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>. In
monsoon season (June, July and August), average maximum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at
the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.02˚C while <strong>change</strong>s in minimum temperature in the monsoon season is insignificant. On the other
hand average maximum temperature in winter season (December, January and February) shows an increasing
trend annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.041˚C while minimum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate
<strong>of</strong> 0.026˚C which reflects winter is also becoming warmer.
5.2.1.2 Rainfall
<strong>The</strong> mean annual rainfall <strong>of</strong> the country is about 2300mm, but there exists a wide spatial and temporal
distribution. Annual rainfall ranges from 1200mm in the extreme west to over 5000mm in the east and northeast
(MPO, 1991). It is 1220 mm in the north-western part, 1490mm in the central part, 3380mm in the coastal
areas, and over 5000mm in the north-eastern part - across the borders from Cherapunji and Mawsyriem, two <strong>of</strong>
the rainiest places in the world (Rashid, 1991). Possible connections with El Nino have only now begun to attract
attention as a major possible influence on climatic patterns in the Sub-continent.
It was observed that during the last monsoon (2006) there was lower rainfall and that resulted in reduction <strong>of</strong>
Aman crop production <strong>of</strong> about 25-30% (Karim, 2006). <strong>The</strong> most remarkable <strong>change</strong> <strong>of</strong> rainfall is the <strong>change</strong> in
duration <strong>of</strong> rainy season. Bangladesh NAPA states that the duration <strong>of</strong> rainy season has been decreased but the
total annual rainfall remains more or less same. It means that heavy rainfall is occurred within short period. This
behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall mostly affects agriculture sector and other livelihood systems.
It is found from rainfall data in Bogra that the annual average rainfall is 1834 mm <strong>of</strong> which 1024 mm rain occurs
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<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh