The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

5. Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many gradual <strong>change</strong> phenomena <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as well as <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> related extreme events. It is expected that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will bring <strong>change</strong>s in characteristics <strong>of</strong> gradual
<strong>change</strong> phenomenon and natural hazards which will result <strong>change</strong>s in physical, social and production system.
Studies and assessments on <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerabilities and adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and sea level rise for
Bangladesh clearly demonstrate that Bangladesh is one <strong>of</strong> the most <strong>climate</strong> vulnerable countries in the world.
Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic. Frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> natural disasters are likely to
increase especially in the northern and western part <strong>of</strong> the country. Several early evidences <strong>of</strong> the above
phenomenon and its associated <strong>impacts</strong> in the agriculture, health, water and sanitation, biodiversity are already
visible in Bangladesh.
Overall <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on Bangladesh would be significant. It is estimated that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> could
affect more that 70 million people <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh due to its geographic location, low elevation, high population
density, poor infrastructure, high levels <strong>of</strong> poverty and high dependency on natural resources1 . It was found that
the population living in the coastal area is more vulnerable than the population in other areas (Alam and Laurel,
2005). Coastal resources upon which the most people depend are likely to be affected severally due to <strong>climate</strong>
variability and <strong>change</strong>2 . It is predicted that for 45 cm rise <strong>of</strong> sea level may inundate 10-15% <strong>of</strong> the land by the
year 2050 resulting over 35 million <strong>climate</strong> refugees from the coastal districts3 . Ultimately adverse <strong>impacts</strong> have
the potential to undermine poverty reduction efforts and could compromise the Millennium Development goals
(MDGs), such as the eradication <strong>of</strong> poverty and hunger by 2015. <strong>The</strong> OECD and World Bank also estimated that
40% <strong>of</strong> the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to Bangladesh may be <strong>climate</strong> sensitive or at risk.
It is also revealed from the studies and assessments that the context <strong>of</strong> vulnerabilities and associated <strong>impacts</strong>
vary by spatial, temporal scale and socio-economic condition <strong>of</strong> communities, resulting need for different
adaptation measures and actions. Coastal area <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to salinity intrusion and tropical cyclone;
floodplains in the central areas are prone to flood; north western region <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to drought; north
eastern part <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to flash flood; and hilly region <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to erosion and
landslide. Water resources and agriculture reported to be most impacted sectors due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Recognition <strong>of</strong> adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic development, life and livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor
and ultimately impeding Millennium Development Goals has pushed urgent need for adaptation to deal with
unavoidable <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> stimuli including variability and extreme events in Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong> Ministry <strong>of</strong>
Environment and Forests, Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has prepared Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and
Action Plan 2008 as a living document and has allocated about US$ 43 million. <strong>The</strong> development partners in
Bangladesh and the Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh have also agreed to setup a Multi-donor Trust Fund (MTF) to
deal with Climate Change adaptation and mitigation.
5.1 Climate Change Studies Bangladesh
Over the last decade several studies have been conducted on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerability and
adaptation assessments for Bangladesh using different <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios. Most <strong>of</strong> the studies focus on
water, agriculture, biodiversity, human health, and infrastructure (BCAS et al., 1994; Huq et al., 1999; World Bank,
2000; ADB, 1994; MOEF, 2000). Recently several studies have been conducted at sub-national/geographical subregion
scale as well as on different sectors with special focus on coastal zone and agriculture sector (IWM and
CEGIS, 2007; BCAS, 2007; CEGIS, 2006; CNRS, 2007). In 2005, Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environment and Forests has formulated
National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action (NAPA) (MOEF, 2005) to address immediate and urgent needs to deal
with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Very recently the Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has prepared Climate Change Strategy and
Action Plan 2008 to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> which includes six thematic areas and 37
programmes. <strong>The</strong> thematic area includes a) food security, social protection and health, b) comprehensive disaster
management, c) infrastructure, d) research and knowledge management, e) mitigation and low carbon
management, and f ) capacity building and institutional strengthening (GoB, 2008). <strong>The</strong> following sections
1
UN Human Development Report 2007/'08
2
OECD, 2003
3
Climate Change Cell, DoE, Bangladesh
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
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