The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Figure 3.2 Linkage and Formulation <strong>of</strong> Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation
Source: IPCC
Human interference
MITIGATION
<strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> via
GHG sources and sinks
3.3 Analytical Methods and Tools
Different analytical tools and methods are used for assessing the <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty
and economic growth. Both qualitative and quantitative methods, statistical tools, and Geographic Information
System (GIS) have been used to analyse poverty and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related data and information. <strong>The</strong> following
section provides a summary <strong>of</strong> different approaches and methods employed in this study.
3.3.1 Assessment <strong>of</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth
3.3.1.1 Analysis <strong>of</strong> Poverty Database
Analysis <strong>of</strong> poverty data includes compilation <strong>of</strong> poverty database by region and dependency <strong>of</strong> household on
different sectors as primary source <strong>of</strong> income. <strong>The</strong> primary source <strong>of</strong> income has been used as indicator <strong>of</strong> main
livelihood. Data and information have been collected from secondary sources which include Bangladesh Bureau
<strong>of</strong> Statistics (BBS) for poverty and economic growth. Other sources are FAO, UNDP General Economic Division etc.
<strong>The</strong> team members visited these organizations for collecting data and information on poverty and economic
growth. <strong>The</strong> General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission has been visited for collection <strong>of</strong> data on
economic growth, PRSP and poverty related data and information. <strong>The</strong> collected data has been analyzed to
understand the trend <strong>of</strong> poverty and economic growth and linked with trend <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> for future
planning. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used to analyze data in the special context and
presentation <strong>of</strong> analytical information through maps.
3.3.1.2 Assessment <strong>of</strong> Impacts on Key Sectors and by Regions
While assessing <strong>climate</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors and society it is necessary to keep in mind that it will not
affect all the sectors and regions equally as mentioned in the conceptual framework. <strong>The</strong>refore, the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on different sectors and by regions have been assessed using GIS and statistical package. <strong>The</strong>
IPCC reports, UNDP country study reports, National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action (NAPA) and other relevant
study reports have been reviewed and assessed during this assessment as well. One <strong>of</strong> the critical issues is
harmonization <strong>of</strong> time dimension <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> and target <strong>of</strong> poverty reduction and Millennium
Development Goals. This has been done by simple down scaling thought dividing level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> by time to match with poverty target and Millennium Development Goals.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
I M P A C T S
CLIMATE CHANGE
including variability
Exposure,
Sensitivity
Initial Impacts
or Effects
Autonomous
Adjustments
Residual or
Net Impacts
Policy responses
V U L N E R A B I L I T I E S
Planned
ADAPTATION
to the <strong>impacts</strong> and
vulnerabilities
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