The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

3. This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative approaches and used primary and secondary data
and information. Understanding the relationship between <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty was one <strong>of</strong> the key thinking
processes and activities which has been carried out through analyzing available poverty related data and
information; information on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, vulnerability and its <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors; statistics <strong>of</strong> economic
growth; review available policies and strategies including National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction,
Millennium Development Goals and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. Based on these
analyses, this final report contains policy, and strategy needed to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in
the context <strong>of</strong> poverty and economic growth, and possible role <strong>of</strong> General Economic Division. This report has been
shared with relevant stakeholders through workshops and suggestions have been incorporated in the final report.
<strong>The</strong> conceptual framework, approach and methodology, and analytical tools used to undertake this research are
described below:
3.1 Conceptual Framework: Understanding and Framing Linkage between Poverty and Climate Change
Understanding and framing linkages between adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty including other
relevant Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is one <strong>of</strong> the key issues to General Economic Division (GED) for
addressing <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and facilitate integration in implementation process <strong>of</strong> the PRSP and the MDGs. In
order to understand the linkage and multi-dimensional aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty along with
economic growth, this study used a framework to capture different elements. This framework suggested three
key elements i.e. a) understand different aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, b) <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> by region and by sectors with special focus on diverse livelihood options <strong>of</strong> the people, and c) link with
economic growth and poverty reduction. <strong>The</strong> framework guided analysis <strong>of</strong> both quantitative and qualitative
data and information related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty. An elaboration <strong>of</strong> different elements <strong>of</strong> the
conceptual framework is given below.
3.1.1 Climate Change
A review and assessment has been carried out to understand <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> science, climatic trend and variability,
and extreme events. <strong>The</strong>se include <strong>change</strong>s in trend <strong>of</strong> temperature and rainfall, salinity intrusion, erratic behaviour
<strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature, and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related extreme events such as flood, drought, cyclone and storm
surges. <strong>The</strong> review and assessment were done based on available literature and studies on <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerability
and adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> for Bangladesh including IPCC reports. A summary <strong>of</strong> observed <strong>change</strong>s in the
climatic system and future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios is given in section 5 which helps to understand and assess
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> these <strong>change</strong>s on different sectors supporting economic growth and livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the people.
3.1.2 Impacts and Vulnerability
Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on different sectors and by geographical region is the
second element <strong>of</strong> the conceptual framework. Assessment has been done for agriculture including fisheries and
livestock, water resources, human settlement, health, infrastructure, industries, and education. This assessment
has been done through collection and review <strong>of</strong> secondary data and literature, and collection <strong>of</strong> inputs from
experts in the relevant field. <strong>The</strong> vulnerability component includes both physical and social vulnerability. <strong>The</strong>
social <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability focus on dependency <strong>of</strong> the people on different sectors and how those sectors
are impacted due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> including extreme events.
3.1.3 Review <strong>of</strong> PRSP and MDGs in the Context <strong>of</strong> Climate Change
PRSP and MDGs has been reviewed to understand the status <strong>of</strong> poverty and hunger, education, health and
environmental sustainability in the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> review has focused on adverse effects on
different strategies and goals <strong>of</strong> PRSP and MDGs against different <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> contexts such as erratic rainfall
and temperature, drought, flood, cyclone, salinity, etc. Different government and non-government projects
related to poverty reduction, promotion <strong>of</strong> education, health and environment have also been reviewed in the
context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> review result has been used to understand the links and gaps <strong>of</strong> PRSP and MDGs
in terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
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