The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Goal 2: Achieve universal
primary education
Goal 3: Promotegender
equality and empower
women
Goals 4, 5 and 6: Health
related issues
Goal 7:
Ensureenvironmental
sustainability
Source: Modified from Reid H and Alam M, 2005
1.2 Climate and Climate Change in Bangladesh
<strong>The</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is influenced by monsoon <strong>climate</strong> and characterized by high temperature, heavy
rainfall, <strong>of</strong>ten-excessive humidity and marked seasonal variations. Although more than half the area is north <strong>of</strong> the
Tropics, the effect <strong>of</strong> the Himalayan mountain chain is such as to make the <strong>climate</strong> more or less tropical throughout
the year. <strong>The</strong> <strong>climate</strong> is controlled primarily by summer and winter winds, and partly by pre-monsoon (March to
May) and post-monsoon (late October to November) circulation. <strong>The</strong> Southwest Monsoon originates over the
Indian Ocean, and carries warm, moist and unstable air. <strong>The</strong> easterly Trade Winds are also warm, but relatively drier.
<strong>The</strong> Northeast Monsoon comes from the Siberian Desert, retaining most <strong>of</strong> its pristine cold, and blows over the
country, usually in gusts, during dry winter months.
Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related extreme events and natural disasters. It is
expected that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will bring <strong>change</strong>s in characteristics <strong>of</strong> natural hazards and gradual <strong>change</strong>s
phenomenon <strong>of</strong> the physical system. Studies and assessments <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerabilities and adaptation to <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> and sea level rise for Bangladesh clearly demonstrates that Bangladesh is one <strong>of</strong> the most <strong>climate</strong>
vulnerable countries in the world. <strong>The</strong> Fourth Assessment Report <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), for South Asia, predicts that monsoon rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during
monsoon season in the river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters
which will lead to salinity intrusion and coastal flooding. Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic.
Frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> natural disasters are likely to increase especially in the northern and western part <strong>of</strong>
the country.
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All <strong>of</strong> these together will <strong>change</strong> crop yields and affect many poor people’s livelihoods. For
example, 2007 floods inundated 32,000 sq. km in area that destroyed over 85,000 houses and
approximately 1.2 million acres <strong>of</strong> crops were destroyed or partially damaged. Total estimated
loss in terms <strong>of</strong> dollar was over $1 billion.
It is likely that natural disasters will damage more houses and will cause temporary migration. It
may also require children to help more with household works leaving less time for schooling.
Malnourishment and diseases also impair learning. Extreme <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related disasters
threaten school buildings and educational materials. For example, cyclone Sidr caused huge
damage to school buildings and wiped out teaching materials.
Adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> are likely to reduce availability and deteriorate quality <strong>of</strong>
water for domestic use. Fetching water for domestic use, for which women are usually
responsible are likely to bear disproportionate hardship when provision <strong>of</strong> these vital
necessities becomes difficult.
Direct <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effects include increases in mortality and illness associated with heat waves,
particularly amongst the elderly and the urban poor. Women and children are particularly vulnerable
to extreme weather events. For example, when the 1991 cyclone hit Bangladesh, 90 percent <strong>of</strong> victims
were women and children.
Climate <strong>change</strong> is likely to increase the prevalence and infection <strong>of</strong> vector and water-borne diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever, cholera and dysentery etc, Children and pregnant women are
particularly susceptible to such diseases.
Climate <strong>change</strong> will probably cause a decline in the quantity and quality <strong>of</strong> drinking water, which is a
prerequisite for good health. Malnutrition, main cause <strong>of</strong> ill health among children, could also be
exacerbated due to declining natural resource productivity and inadequate supply <strong>of</strong> food insecurity.
Changes in temperature and rainfall distribution, and sea level rise and salinity intrusion are
likely to <strong>change</strong> ecosystem characteristics and shift ecosystem boundaries. Climate <strong>change</strong>
also poses a greater survival threat than the destruction <strong>of</strong> many natural habitats including
coral reefs. Degradation <strong>of</strong> biodiversity will reduce the availability <strong>of</strong> many traditional
medicines which may affect poor and rural people who depend more on natural resources
for medicine as well as income and food.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh