The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

1. <strong>The</strong> Millennium Declaration <strong>of</strong> the United Nations was adopted in 2000 by all member states followed by a list
<strong>of</strong> eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were inclusive <strong>of</strong> 18 targets and 48 indicators. Bangladesh is
committed to achieve the MDGs within the stipulated timeframe, i.e. 2015. Following the adoption <strong>of</strong> the
Millennium Declaration, the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), the medium term budgetary framework and
the annual development plan were tuned with the MDGs’ targets. However, progress towards attainment <strong>of</strong> MDGs
has been mixed in Bangladesh. People living in the remote char and river erosion areas with little assets and
employment opportunities in the lean period are usual victims <strong>of</strong> extreme poverty. <strong>The</strong> progress in meeting MDGs
include reduction in gender disparity in primary and secondary schooling; reduction in proportion <strong>of</strong> population
below the national poverty line; promotion and implementation <strong>of</strong> minimum level <strong>of</strong> energy consumption; and,
achievement to a certain degree in reduction in incidences <strong>of</strong> communicable diseases and promoting safe drinking
water supply.
“Millennium Development Goals: <strong>The</strong> Mid-Term Bangladesh Progress Report-2007” has highlighted several
challenges in achieving the MDG targets. Overall, the target <strong>of</strong> achieving poverty reduction is on the track but the
major challenge is increasing the share <strong>of</strong> the poorest quintile in the national income. Statistics from 1991 to 2005
shows that share <strong>of</strong> the poorest quintile has decreased from 6.5 percent to 5.3 percent against the target to
increase 14.0 percent by 2015. Bangladesh has two risks in meeting the target - failing to sustain the present trend
<strong>of</strong> economic growth and the extreme groups might get lesser benefits from the economic growth. On the issue <strong>of</strong>
health, particularly to deal with Malaria, the country needs to develop strong mechanisms to monitor outbreak <strong>of</strong>
the disease in high-risk district(s) and to develop effective treatments for drug resistant malaria strains.
Simultaneously, increase in detection and cure rates, along with improvements in the quality <strong>of</strong> diagnostic services,
will pose a major challenge for the country.
1.1 Climate Change and Millennium Development Goals
<strong>The</strong> pattern and behaviour <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>, including variability and extreme events, play a significant role in freshwater
availability; in agriculture and its productivity; in the function <strong>of</strong> natural ecosystems and biodiversity; in influencing
human health; and in influencing the livelihood <strong>of</strong> the people dependent on the natural resource base. <strong>The</strong>se
characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> either create a favourable condition for a system to function better, or put risk on a system
and increase its vulnerability. <strong>The</strong>refore, economic growth, and the performance <strong>of</strong> a nation and society rely to a
large extent on the behaviour <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>.
Climate <strong>change</strong> is an environmental issue having significant implications on development, including achievement
<strong>of</strong> Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and its targets. <strong>The</strong> National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction
(2009-2011) has recognised <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as one <strong>of</strong> the emerging issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are
generally the most vulnerable to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> because they live in areas more prone to flooding, cyclones,
droughts etc., and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. <strong>The</strong>y are also more dependent on ecosystem services
and products for their livelihoods. Any impact that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has on natural systems therefore threatens the
livelihoods, food intake and health <strong>of</strong> poor people. Loss <strong>of</strong> employment and <strong>impacts</strong> on assets are likely to reduce
opportunities for education in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children may be
required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cyclone and storm
surges damage school facilities and educational materials. <strong>The</strong> following table provides linkage between
Millennium Development Goals and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Table 1.1 Linkages between Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change Vulnerability Context
Millennium
Development Goals
Goal 1: Eradicate
extreme poverty
and hunger
Climate Change Context
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Livelihood and income <strong>of</strong> a large population depends on the natural resource base and most <strong>of</strong>
the poor people <strong>of</strong>ten live in marginalized lands and areas more prone to natural disasters.
Climate <strong>change</strong> means that many natural disaster prone areas will become more prone due to
increased frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> disasters. Drought prone areas will become hotter and drier,
with less predictable rainfall; flood frequency and intensity along onset and recession will be
<strong>change</strong>d in future; nature <strong>of</strong> cyclone and storm surges will be different from the historical trend.
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