The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. <strong>The</strong>y are also more dependent on ecosystem services and
products for their livelihoods. Any impact that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has on natural systems therefore threatens the
livelihoods, food intake and health <strong>of</strong> poor people. Loss <strong>of</strong> employment and <strong>impacts</strong> on assets are likely to
reduce opportunities for education in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children
may be required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cyclone
and storm surges damage school facilities and educational materials.
<strong>The</strong> United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has undertaken a project “Support to Monitoring Poverty
Reduction Strategies and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Bangladesh” to enhance the institutional
capacity <strong>of</strong> the government’s General Economic Division (GED) as the National Poverty Focal Point. Under this
project, Planning Commission under the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Planning has carried out a research on “<strong>The</strong> Probable
Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with Adverse Effect <strong>of</strong>
Climate Change in Bangladesh.” Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) has undertaken this research on
behalf <strong>of</strong> the General Economic Division. <strong>The</strong> overall objective <strong>of</strong> the project is to enhance institutional capacity
<strong>of</strong> the General Economic Division to respond to the planning perspectives <strong>of</strong> the dynamically evolving socioeconomic
circumstances under changing <strong>climate</strong>.
This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative assessment approaches and used primary and
secondary data and information. Understanding the relationship between <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty was one
<strong>of</strong> the key areas. It has been done through analyzing available poverty data and information and information on
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and its <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors. Another area <strong>of</strong> the study was to understand <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic growth which has been done through analysing major sectors contributing to
economic growth and their <strong>impacts</strong> due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction,
and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan have been consulted to understand poverty and
<strong>climate</strong> related policy aspect. Based on these analyses, the report contains required policy, and strategy to deal
with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in the context <strong>of</strong> poverty and economic growth, as well as possible role
<strong>of</strong> General Economic Division. In order to derive expert opinion on linkage among <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> adverse
<strong>impacts</strong>, poverty and economic growth, about 30 individuals have been interviewed from relevant sectors and
two small expert group consultations have conducted. It is also to be noted that this report has been finalized
through sharing with key stakeholders in a workshop and suggestions have been incorporated in the final
report.
<strong>The</strong> analysis from expert interviews revealed that reduction <strong>of</strong> crop yield by gradual <strong>change</strong> and total or partial
damage due to extreme events are key <strong>impacts</strong> facing by crop agriculture sector. It is also to be noted that most
<strong>of</strong> the crops are affected at flowering to grain-filling stage and thus <strong>impacts</strong> vary by agro-ecological zone. It has
been revealed that 50% reduction <strong>of</strong> crop production would increase poverty at the same percentage.
Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on economic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce 12% <strong>of</strong> GDP
contribution for a particular disaster. Effects <strong>of</strong> cyclone are more severe than flood. <strong>The</strong> experts agreed that 60%
damage <strong>of</strong> crop by a cyclone increases poverty at the same percentage affecting their resources and livelihoods,
and decreases economic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty eradication and hunger)
is badly affected and pushed backward. Besides, drought, cold spell, river bank erosion etc. have remarkable
<strong>impacts</strong> on crop agriculture and consequently on poverty and economic growth.
In the fisheries sector <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will have both negative and positive <strong>impacts</strong>. <strong>The</strong> positive impact is
possible increase in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the <strong>impacts</strong> would not be remarkable
in national context rather it would affect investment at individual level. <strong>The</strong> key experts’ interviews and
consultation workshops revealed that flood and cyclone affect culture fisheries severely while effects <strong>of</strong> other
shocks such as drought, salinity intrusion, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. This
leads to loss <strong>of</strong> livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor fishermen and decrease nutrition status <strong>of</strong> the rural poor. Moreover,
frequent warnings <strong>of</strong> cyclone lead the fishermen to stay at home for longer periods and thus their income
decreased which increased their poverty level.
<strong>The</strong> consultation with key experts’ state that livestock sector is badly affected by <strong>climate</strong> variability and shocks.
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<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh