The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Executive Summary
<strong>The</strong> Responding Probable Impacts to <strong>The</strong> <strong>of</strong> Millennium Climate Change Development on Poverty Challenge and Economic through Growth Private and Sector’s Involvement in Bangladesh
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Climate <strong>change</strong> is a reality and no longer a future
concern. Many adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> stimuli
including variability and extreme are already visible. <strong>The</strong>
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) <strong>of</strong> the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
reported that the average global surface temperature
has increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years. It is also
reported that the sea level rose at an average rate <strong>of</strong> 1.8
mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and mountain glaciers
and snow cover have declined on average in both
hemispheres. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or
above current rates would cause further warming and
induce many <strong>change</strong>s in the global climatic system
during the 21st century. It has also stated that <strong>impacts</strong>
during the 21st century would very likely be larger than
those observed during the 20th century. For South Asia,
IPCC report predicts that monsoon rainfall will increase,
resulting in higher flows during monsoon season in the
river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will
be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to
salinity intrusion and coastal flooding.
Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> related extreme events. It is expected that
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will bring <strong>change</strong>s in characteristics <strong>of</strong>
extreme events and gradual <strong>change</strong>s phenomenon <strong>of</strong>
the physical and natural systems. Due to higher level <strong>of</strong>
dependency on natural resource base, overall <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on Bangladesh would be significant. It is
estimated that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> could affect more than
70 million people <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh. Key factors
contributing to its vulnerability are geographic location,
low elevation, high population density, poor
infrastructure, high levels <strong>of</strong> poverty and dependency
on natural resources. Coastal resources upon which the
most people depend are likely to be affected severally
due to <strong>climate</strong> variability and <strong>change</strong>. It is predicted that
for 45 cm rise <strong>of</strong> sea level may inundate 10-15% <strong>of</strong> the
land by the year 2050 resulting over 35 million <strong>climate</strong>
migrant from the coastal districts.
Ultimately adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will have
the potential to undermine poverty reduction efforts
and could compromise the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) and targets, such as the reduction <strong>of</strong>
poverty and hunger by 2015. <strong>The</strong> National Strategy for
Accelerated Poverty Reduction (2009-2011) has
recognised <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as one <strong>of</strong> the emerging
issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are generally
most vulnerable to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> because they live in
areas more prone to flooding, cyclones, droughts etc.,
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