The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

11. Vulnerability <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is well recognized due to its higher level <strong>of</strong> exposure to both
the gradual <strong>change</strong> phenomenon and extreme events, and due to lack <strong>of</strong> institutional and financial capacity to
deal with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related problems as well. Changes in the climatic system and its associated adverse
<strong>impacts</strong> are already visible. Changes in the duration <strong>of</strong> seasons, i.e. lengthening <strong>of</strong> the summer season and
shortening <strong>of</strong> the winter season, shifting <strong>of</strong> mango flowering season; increase in the frequency <strong>of</strong> hazards;
<strong>change</strong>s in the rainfall pattern etc. are major indicators <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in Bangladesh.
<strong>The</strong> IPCC estimates that by 2050 rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8% and wheat production by
32% (against a base year <strong>of</strong> 1990). If sea level rise is higher than currently expected and coastal polders are not
strengthened and/or new ones built, six to eight million people could be displaced by 2050 and would have to
be resettled. Climate <strong>change</strong> is likely to increase the incidence <strong>of</strong> water-borne and air-borne diseases. Bacteria,
parasites and disease vectors breed faster in warmer and wetter conditions and where there is poor drainage
and sanitation.
<strong>The</strong> relationship between <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> adverse <strong>impacts</strong> and poverty is multi-dimensional and complex. For
better understanding the complex relationship needs longitudinal disaggregated poverty database along with
different streams <strong>of</strong> income <strong>of</strong> a household and their assets. Strengthening <strong>of</strong> institutional and human capacity
to analyse poverty in the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is also needed. <strong>The</strong> relationship between adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> with GDP growth is complex as well.
It has been revealed that during and immediately after a disaster, the government, development partners, nongovernment
organizations and the civil society place significant extra efforts to cope with the situation and,
therefore, by the next growing season there is additional output from the impacted sectors. <strong>The</strong> direct annual
cost to the national economy <strong>of</strong> natural disasters over the last 10 years (damage and loss in production) was
estimated to be between 0.5% and 1% <strong>of</strong> GDP. However, it is to be noted that national expenditure increases to
address a disaster or the cost is diverted from other sectoral activities. In future, increase in frequency and
intensity <strong>of</strong> natural disasters will put extra pressure on the national economy and it is likely that other sectors
may suffer due to diverting <strong>of</strong> resources from one sector to another sector.
Different sectors are coping with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related adverse <strong>impacts</strong> but most <strong>of</strong> them are reactive
adaptation measures. However, many <strong>of</strong> the measures have potential to work as future adaptation options but
we need evaluation <strong>of</strong> their robustness under future <strong>change</strong>d conditions. Effective knowledge management and
undertaking <strong>of</strong> new research will enhance capacity <strong>of</strong> different sectoral agencies to undertake adaptation to
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in an efficient manner.
<strong>The</strong> Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environment and Forests, Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is the focal point for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> at
national and international level. <strong>The</strong> Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has formulated the Bangladesh Climate Change
Strategy and Action Plan 2008 as a living document to address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues. In 2005, the Government
also formulated the National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action (NAPA) where the immediate and urgent needs <strong>of</strong>
adaptation have been identified.
<strong>The</strong> Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 is built on six pillars <strong>of</strong> which five are related to
impact management and one is related to mitigation through low carbon development. <strong>The</strong>se pillars are a) Food
security, social protection and health, b) Comprehensive Disaster Management, c) Infrastructure, d) Research and
knowledge management, e) Mitigation and low carbon development and f ) Capacity building and institutional
strengthening. It has suggested that the Climate Change Action Plan will be implemented under the overall
guidance <strong>of</strong> the National Environment Committee. It will be coordinated by the concerned Ministry <strong>of</strong>
Environment and Forests. Programs funded under the Plan will be implemented by Ministries or their agencies,
with the involvement, as appropriate, <strong>of</strong> civil society and the private sector.
<strong>The</strong> strategy document revealed that the Bangladesh Government is committed to integrate and mainstream
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into all aspects <strong>of</strong> national, sectoral and spatial development in the country. This will require: (a)
incorporating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into policies, plans, programs and projects; (b) establishment and building the
capacity <strong>of</strong> ministries and agencies so that they are able to do this (e.g., building on the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> cells in
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
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