The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP
The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP
The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP
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Policy Study <strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty<br />
and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping<br />
with Adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Support to M<strong>on</strong>itoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh<br />
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omics Divisi<strong>on</strong>, Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the People’s Republic <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh &<br />
<strong>UNDP</strong> Bangladesh
Policy Study <strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping<br />
with Adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Research Team<br />
Dr. Atiq Rahman, Team Leader<br />
Mr. Mozaharul Alam. Coordinator and Adaptati<strong>on</strong> Expert<br />
Mr. Khandaker Mainuddin, Poverty Assessment Specialist<br />
Md. Liaquat Ali, Natural Resource Management Specialist<br />
Mr. S.M. Alauddin, Social Development Specialist<br />
Mr. Md. Golam Rabbani, Water and Infrastructure Specialist<br />
Dr. Md. Muslem Uddin Miah, Agriculture Specialist<br />
Mr. Md. Rabi Uzzaman, Assistant Study Coordinator<br />
Mr. Shah Mohammad Ashraful Amin, Disaster Assessment Expert<br />
Publicati<strong>on</strong>: May 2009<br />
Published by :<br />
Support to M<strong>on</strong>itoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh<br />
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omics Divisi<strong>on</strong>, Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the People’s Republic <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh &<br />
<strong>UNDP</strong> Bangladesh<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> analysis, findings & recommendati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this study do not necessarily reflect the views <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omics<br />
Divisi<strong>on</strong>, Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> and United Nati<strong>on</strong>s Development Programme, rather with which the duly research<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong> is c<strong>on</strong>cerned.
Foreword<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omics Divisi<strong>on</strong> (GED) <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> initiated Policy<br />
Studies relating to MDGs under its <strong>UNDP</strong> assisted project 'Support to M<strong>on</strong>itoring<br />
PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh'. Policy studies were felt necessary to support<br />
informed and evidence based policy and strategy making for development planning.<br />
In the first phase, three topics were selected for the policy studies. One <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these three<br />
studies is '<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
Growth and the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with Adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in<br />
Bangladesh'. This study was outsourced to 'Bangladesh Centre for Advanced<br />
Studies (BCAS)'.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study examines the global initiatives <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and points out various<br />
aspects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> regarding <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and ways <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
coping with its adverse effects in Bangladesh. It projects that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> could<br />
affect more than 70 milli<strong>on</strong> people <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh due to its geographic locati<strong>on</strong>, low<br />
elevati<strong>on</strong>, high populati<strong>on</strong> density, poor infrastructure, high levels <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
high dependency <strong>on</strong> natural resources.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study identifies areas that need to be given priority by the Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Bangladesh and other c<strong>on</strong>cerns. It recommends that Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh<br />
should c<strong>on</strong>sider scientific <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> models and IPCC (Inter-government Panel <strong>on</strong> the<br />
Climate Change) reports as the basis to prepare country specific <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> acti<strong>on</strong> plans<br />
in line with the sectoral projecti<strong>on</strong>s / policies / plans for <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> purposes.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Study suggests implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the nati<strong>on</strong>al <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> strategy and acti<strong>on</strong> plans<br />
particularly in the area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> food security, social protecti<strong>on</strong>, human health,<br />
infrastructure, knowledge management and research, capacity building and<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>al strengthening, in the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth.<br />
We hope that the study would be useful in policy making in the evolving <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> mitigati<strong>on</strong> and adaptati<strong>on</strong> program for Bangladesh. We express our<br />
appreciati<strong>on</strong> to BCAS for carrying out the study <strong>on</strong> behalf <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> GED. We would also like<br />
to thank <strong>UNDP</strong> for supporting GED in undertaking this policy study.<br />
Nati<strong>on</strong>al Project Director, Support to M<strong>on</strong>itoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh<br />
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omics Divisi<strong>on</strong>, Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong><br />
Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the People's Republic <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh
Table <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> C<strong>on</strong>tents<br />
Executive Summary xiii<br />
1. Background 1<br />
1.1 Climate Change and Millennium Development Goals 3<br />
1.2 Climate and Climate Change in Bangladesh 4<br />
2. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Study 7<br />
2.1 Objectives <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Project 9<br />
2.2 Scope <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Work 9<br />
3. C<strong>on</strong>ceptual Framework, Methodology and Tools 11<br />
3.1 C<strong>on</strong>ceptual Framework: Understanding and Framing Linkage between Poverty and Climate Change 13<br />
3.1.1 Climate Change 13<br />
3.1.2 Impacts and Vulnerability 13<br />
3.1.3 Review <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> PRSP and MDGs in the C<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change 13<br />
3.2 Strategy to Deal with Adverse Effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change 14<br />
3.2.1 Reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Exposure and Sensitivity 14<br />
3.2.2 Enhance Adaptive Capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerable Sectors and Communities 14<br />
3.3 Analytical Methods and Tools 15<br />
3.3.1 Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth 15<br />
3.3.1.1 Analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty Database 15<br />
3.3.1.2 Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts <strong>on</strong> Key Sectors and by Regi<strong>on</strong>s 15<br />
3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts 16<br />
3.3.1.4 Workshops 16<br />
3.3.2 Formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Strategies and Policy Choices 16<br />
3.3.2.1 Formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Draft Strategies and Policy Choices 16<br />
3.3.2.2 Workshop and Finalizati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Strategies 16<br />
4. Climate Change, I pacts and vulnerability – Global and Regi<strong>on</strong>al C<strong>on</strong>text 17<br />
4.1 Climate Change - Global C<strong>on</strong>text 19<br />
4.1.1 Impacted Sectors: Freshwater Resources 19<br />
4.1.2 Ecosystem 19<br />
4.1.3 Food, Fibre & Forest Product 19<br />
4.1.4 Coastal & Low Lying Areas 20<br />
4.1.5 Industry and Human Settlement 20<br />
4.1.6 Health and Nutriti<strong>on</strong> 20<br />
4.2 Climate Change - Regi<strong>on</strong>al C<strong>on</strong>text 20<br />
5. Climate Change – Bangladesh 23<br />
5.1 Climate Change Studies Bangladesh 25<br />
5.2 Present and Future Scenario <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate 26<br />
v
5.2.1 Observed Changes 26<br />
5.2.1.1 Temperature 26<br />
5.2.1.2 Rainfall 26<br />
5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario 27<br />
5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salinity Intrusi<strong>on</strong> 29<br />
5.4 Extreme Climatic Events 31<br />
5.4.1 Changes in Flood Frequency 32<br />
5.4.2 Changes in Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and Storm Surges 34<br />
5.4.3 Changes in Drought 35<br />
6. Bangladesh: Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> and Vulnerabilities to Climate Change 39<br />
6.1 C<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerability 41<br />
6.2 Impacts <strong>on</strong> Crop Agriculture 42<br />
6.2.1 Existing Impacts – Percepti<strong>on</strong> 42<br />
6.2.2 Future Impacts – Percepti<strong>on</strong> 46<br />
6.2.3 Future Impacts – Model Result 47<br />
6.3 Fisheries 48<br />
6.3.1 Existing Impacts – Percepti<strong>on</strong> 48<br />
6.3.2 Future Impacts 48<br />
6.4 Livestock 49<br />
6.5 Forestry 49<br />
6.6 Water Supply and Sanitati<strong>on</strong> 50<br />
6.7 Industry and Infrastructure 51<br />
6.8 Health 52<br />
6.8.1 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Health- Percepti<strong>on</strong> 53<br />
6.8.2 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Health- observed <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s 53<br />
6.9 Educati<strong>on</strong> 55<br />
7. Climate Change, Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth 59<br />
7.1 Distributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty 61<br />
7.2 Intensity and Severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty 63<br />
7.3 Climate Change Impacts <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth 64<br />
7.3.1 Agriculture 64<br />
7.3.2 Fisheries 65<br />
7.3.3 Livestock 66<br />
7.3.4 Forestry 66<br />
7.3.5 Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong> 67<br />
7.3.6 Health 68<br />
7.3.7 Educati<strong>on</strong> 68<br />
7.4 Analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth 68<br />
7.4.1 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Hazards <strong>on</strong> Sectors 69<br />
7.4.2 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Hazards <strong>on</strong> GDP 70<br />
7.4.3 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Flood <strong>on</strong> Different Types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Livelihoods 72<br />
7.4.3.1 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Khulna Divisi<strong>on</strong> 72<br />
7.4.3.2 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Chittag<strong>on</strong>g Divisi<strong>on</strong> 72<br />
7.4.3.3 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Rajshahi Divisi<strong>on</strong> 72<br />
7.4.3.4 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Dhaka Divisi<strong>on</strong> 72<br />
vi
7.4.3.5 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Sylhet Divisi<strong>on</strong> 73<br />
7.4.3.6 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Barisal Divisi<strong>on</strong> 73<br />
7.4.3.7 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Bangladesh 73<br />
7.4.4 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Cycl<strong>on</strong>e <strong>on</strong> Different Types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Livelihood 73<br />
7.4.5 Causes and Impacts Relati<strong>on</strong>ship 74<br />
8. Existing Coping Strategies/Practices 77<br />
8.1 Crop Agriculture 79<br />
8.2 Fisheries 79<br />
8.3 Forestry 80<br />
8.4 Livestock 80<br />
8.5 Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong> 80<br />
8.6 Industry and Infrastructure 81<br />
8.7 Health 81<br />
8.8 Educati<strong>on</strong> 81<br />
9. Probable Future Coping Strategies 83<br />
9.1 Reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Exposure 85<br />
9.2 Reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Sensitivity 88<br />
9.3 Improvement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Adaptive Capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Community 92<br />
9.4 Instituti<strong>on</strong>al Capacity Building 94<br />
10. Changes Needed in Planning Process 97<br />
10.1 Incorporati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change 99<br />
10.2 Creating Enabling C<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> 99<br />
10.3 Ensure Participati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerable Communities and Local Need 99<br />
10.4 Role <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> 100<br />
10.5 mmediate Projects for Implementati<strong>on</strong> 100<br />
10.5.1 Enhance understanding and knowledge <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and development<br />
with special focus <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth 100<br />
10.5.2 Quantitative analysis and assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong><br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong> by regi<strong>on</strong>s and livelihood groups 101<br />
10.5.3 Capacity Enhancement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning Cadre <strong>on</strong> Climate Change Issues 102<br />
11. C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong> 103<br />
12. Key Terminologies 107<br />
12.1 Climate 109<br />
12.2 Climate Change 109<br />
12.3 Climate System 109<br />
12.4 Climate Variability 109<br />
12.5 Extreme Weather Event 109<br />
References 110<br />
vii
List <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Tables<br />
Table 1.1 Linkages between Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change vulnerability c<strong>on</strong>text 3<br />
Table 5.1 Climate Change scenario for Bangladesh 28<br />
Table 5.2 Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different seas<strong>on</strong>s and geographical regi<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country 28<br />
Table 5.3 Trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> tidal surge in three coastal stati<strong>on</strong>s 29<br />
Table 5.4 Sea level <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> under different emissi<strong>on</strong> scenarios 29<br />
Table 5.5 Changes in fresh and brackish water area [in Ha] in dry and m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong>s 30<br />
Table 5.6 Frequency table <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Hazards 31<br />
Table 5.7 Different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood occurring in Bangladesh 32<br />
Table 5.8 Flood with area coverage 33<br />
Table 5.9 Return period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood according to affected area 34<br />
Table 5.10 Historical record <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e formed in the Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bengal 34<br />
Table 5.11 Existing Drought affected Areas under different drought classes 36<br />
Table 5.12 Drought Affected areas 37<br />
Table 5.13 Frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought 37<br />
Table 5.14 Showing historical significance <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought 37<br />
Table 6.1 Summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerability c<strong>on</strong>text 41<br />
Table 6.2 Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> different sectors 42<br />
Table 6.3 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present level Impacts related to Climate Change <strong>on</strong> crop 43<br />
agriculture in the flood and flash flood affected areas<br />
Table 6.4 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present level <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> related to Climate Change <strong>on</strong> crop 43<br />
agriculture in the drought pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Table 6.5 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> related to Climate Change <strong>on</strong> crop 44<br />
agriculture in the coastal areas<br />
Table 6.6 Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong> by different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> hazards 45<br />
Table 6.7 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> future level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> related to Climate Change in the flood pr<strong>on</strong>e areas 46<br />
Table 6.8 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> future level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> related to Climate Change in the drought pr<strong>on</strong>e areas 46<br />
Table 6.9 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> future level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> related to Climate Change in the Coastal areas 47<br />
Table 6.10 Damage to infrastructure by different major cycl<strong>on</strong>es 51<br />
Table 6.11 Damage to infrastructure by recent floods 52<br />
Table 6.12 Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> health 53<br />
Table 6.13 Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea during major flood events 54<br />
Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history in Bangladesh 55<br />
Table 6.15 Dengue incidences in Bangladesh 55<br />
Table 6.16 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different disasters <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> infrastructure and the subsequent <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> 56<br />
Table 7.1 Climatic elements, critical vulnerable areas and impacted sectors<br />
and links with PRSP and MDGs 61<br />
Table 7.2 Number and density <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor people by regi<strong>on</strong>, 2005 63<br />
Table 7.3 Poverty Gap and Squared Poverty Gap by regi<strong>on</strong>, 2005 64<br />
Table 7.4 Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> crop<br />
agriculture, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth 64<br />
Table 7.5 Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> fisheries, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth 65<br />
Table 7.6 Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> livestock, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth 66<br />
Table 7.7 Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> forestry, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth 67<br />
Table 7.8 Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> water and<br />
sanitati<strong>on</strong>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth 68<br />
Table 7.9 Damage to Boro Rice producti<strong>on</strong> due to cycl<strong>on</strong>e, storm surge and hail storm (in M. T<strong>on</strong>) 69<br />
Table 7.10 Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boro Rice due to flood (in M. T<strong>on</strong>) 69<br />
Table 7.11 Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> AUS Rice due to flood (in M. T<strong>on</strong>) 70<br />
Table 7.12 Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> AMAN Rice due to flood (in M T<strong>on</strong>) 70<br />
viii
Table 7.13 Change in c<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong> to GDP due to Climate Change related hazards 70<br />
Table 7.14 Exposure <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> households involved in agriculture to cycl<strong>on</strong>e 76<br />
Table 9.1 Provides list <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> measures to reduce exposure 85<br />
Table 9.2 Provides list <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> opti<strong>on</strong>s to reduce sensitivity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the system 88<br />
Table 9.3 Provides types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> interventi<strong>on</strong> to enhance adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the community 92<br />
Table 9.4 Provides types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> interventi<strong>on</strong> to enhance adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the community 94<br />
List <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Figures<br />
Figure 3.1 Strength <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> relati<strong>on</strong>ship <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> climatic signals and their <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> sectors<br />
and social development 14<br />
Figure 3.2 Linkages and formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> strategies for adaptati<strong>on</strong> and mitigati<strong>on</strong> 15<br />
Figure 5.1 Changes in trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> annual rainfall and days-without rain (Rangpur stati<strong>on</strong>) 27<br />
Figure 6.1 Year-wise occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood with % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> area inundated and damage to crops 45<br />
Figure 6.2 Relati<strong>on</strong>ship between temperature and malarial incidences 54<br />
Figure 7.1 Existing Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
in Relati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Sectors-Flood Pr<strong>on</strong>e Area 75<br />
Figure 7.2 Existing Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
in Relati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Sectors-Coastal Area 75<br />
Figure 7.3 Existing Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
in Relati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Sectors-Drought Pr<strong>on</strong>e Area 76<br />
ix
x<br />
ADB Asian Development Bank<br />
AEZ Agro Ecological Z<strong>on</strong>e<br />
AR4 Fourth Assessment Report<br />
A B B R E V I A T I O N<br />
BARI Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute<br />
BBS Bangladesh Bureau <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Statistics<br />
BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies<br />
BCCSAP Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan<br />
BINA Bangladesh Institute <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Nuclear Agriculture<br />
BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department<br />
BRRI Bangladesh Rice Research Institute<br />
BUET Bangladesh University <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Engineering and Technology<br />
BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board<br />
CCC Climate Change Cell<br />
CCCM Canadian Climate Change Model<br />
CCIA Climate Change Impact Assessment<br />
CDMP Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme<br />
CEGIS Centre for Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Geographic Informati<strong>on</strong> System<br />
CNRS Centre for Natural Resource Studies<br />
DAE Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agricultural Extensi<strong>on</strong><br />
DoE Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment<br />
DSSAT Decisi<strong>on</strong> Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer<br />
FAO Food and Agricultural Organizati<strong>on</strong><br />
GCM General Circulati<strong>on</strong> Model<br />
GDP Gross Domestic Product<br />
GED General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
GIS Geographic Informati<strong>on</strong> System
GO Government Organizati<strong>on</strong><br />
GoB Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh<br />
A B B R E V I A T I O N<br />
HIES Household Income and Expenditure Survey<br />
HYV High Yielding Variety<br />
ICDDR,B Internati<strong>on</strong>al Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh<br />
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel <strong>on</strong> Climate Change<br />
IWM Institute <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Water Modeling<br />
MDGs Millennium Development Goals<br />
MOEF Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forestry<br />
MoU Memorandum <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Understanding<br />
NAPA Nati<strong>on</strong>al Adaptati<strong>on</strong> Programme <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Acti<strong>on</strong><br />
NGO N<strong>on</strong>-Government Organizati<strong>on</strong><br />
ODA Overseas Development Assistance<br />
OECD Organizati<strong>on</strong> for Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Cooperati<strong>on</strong> and Development<br />
PRECIS Providing Regi<strong>on</strong>al Climates for Impacts Studies<br />
PRSP Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategy Paper<br />
PSF P<strong>on</strong>d Sand Filters<br />
SAARC South Asian Associati<strong>on</strong> for Regi<strong>on</strong>al Cooperati<strong>on</strong><br />
SIS Small Indigenous Species<br />
SLR Sea Level Rise<br />
SMRC SAARC Meteorological Research Centre<br />
SRES Special Report <strong>on</strong> Emissi<strong>on</strong> Scenarios<br />
STW Shallow Tube-Well<br />
<strong>UNDP</strong> United Nati<strong>on</strong>s Development Programme<br />
xi
Executive Summary<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Resp<strong>on</strong>ding Probable Impacts to <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Millennium Climate Change Development <strong>on</strong> Poverty Challenge and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic through Growth Private and Sector’s Involvement in Bangladesh<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is a reality and no l<strong>on</strong>ger a future<br />
c<strong>on</strong>cern. Many adverse effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> stimuli<br />
including variability and extreme are already visible. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
Intergovernmental Panel <strong>on</strong> Climate Change (IPCC) has<br />
reported that the average global surface temperature<br />
has increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years. It is also<br />
reported that the sea level rose at an average rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1.8<br />
mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and mountain glaciers<br />
and snow cover have declined <strong>on</strong> average in both<br />
hemispheres. C<strong>on</strong>tinued greenhouse gas emissi<strong>on</strong>s at or<br />
above current rates would cause further warming and<br />
induce many <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the global climatic system<br />
during the 21st century. It has also stated that <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
during the 21st century would very likely be larger than<br />
those observed during the 20th century. For South Asia,<br />
IPCC report predicts that m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> rainfall will increase,<br />
resulting in higher flows during m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> in the<br />
river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will<br />
be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to<br />
salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and coastal flooding.<br />
Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events. It is expected that<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will bring <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
extreme events and gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s phenomen<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the physical and natural systems. Due to higher level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
dependency <strong>on</strong> natural resource base, overall <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Bangladesh would be significant. It is<br />
estimated that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> could affect more than<br />
70 milli<strong>on</strong> people <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh. Key factors<br />
c<strong>on</strong>tributing to its vulnerability are geographic locati<strong>on</strong>,<br />
low elevati<strong>on</strong>, high populati<strong>on</strong> density, poor<br />
infrastructure, high levels <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and dependency<br />
<strong>on</strong> natural resources. Coastal resources up<strong>on</strong> which the<br />
most people depend are likely to be affected severally<br />
due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability and <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. It is predicted that<br />
for 45 cm rise <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sea level may inundate 10-15% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
land by the year 2050 resulting over 35 milli<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
migrant from the coastal districts.<br />
Ultimately adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will have<br />
the potential to undermine <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> efforts<br />
and could compromise the Millennium Development<br />
Goals (MDGs) and targets, such as the reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<strong>poverty</strong> and hunger by 2015. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Nati<strong>on</strong>al Strategy for<br />
Accelerated Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong> (2009-2011) has<br />
recognised <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> as <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the emerging<br />
issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are generally<br />
most vulnerable to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> because they live in<br />
areas more pr<strong>on</strong>e to flooding, cycl<strong>on</strong>es, droughts etc.,<br />
xiii
and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>y are also more dependent <strong>on</strong> ecosystem services and<br />
products for their livelihoods. Any impact that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> has <strong>on</strong> natural systems therefore threatens the<br />
livelihoods, food intake and health <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor people. Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> employment and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> assets are likely to<br />
reduce opportunities for educati<strong>on</strong> in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children<br />
may be required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
and storm surges damage school facilities and educati<strong>on</strong>al materials.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> United Nati<strong>on</strong>s Development Programme (<strong>UNDP</strong>) has undertaken a project “Support to M<strong>on</strong>itoring Poverty<br />
Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategies and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Bangladesh” to enhance the instituti<strong>on</strong>al<br />
capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the government’s General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> (GED) as the Nati<strong>on</strong>al Poverty Focal Point. Under this<br />
project, Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> under the Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning has carried out a research <strong>on</strong> “<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable<br />
Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with Adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Climate Change in Bangladesh.” Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) has undertaken this research <strong>on</strong><br />
behalf <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> overall objective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the project is to enhance instituti<strong>on</strong>al capacity<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> to resp<strong>on</strong>d to the planning perspectives <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the dynamically evolving socioec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
circumstances under changing <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative assessment approaches and used primary and<br />
sec<strong>on</strong>dary data and informati<strong>on</strong>. Understanding the relati<strong>on</strong>ship between <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <strong>poverty</strong> was <strong>on</strong>e<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the key areas. It has been d<strong>on</strong>e through analyzing available <strong>poverty</strong> data and informati<strong>on</strong> and informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and its <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors. Another area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the study was to understand <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth which has been d<strong>on</strong>e through analysing major sectors c<strong>on</strong>tributing to<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and their <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Nati<strong>on</strong>al Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong>,<br />
and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan have been c<strong>on</strong>sulted to understand <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> related policy aspect. Based <strong>on</strong> these analyses, the report c<strong>on</strong>tains required policy, and strategy to deal<br />
with adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, as well as possible role<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong>. In order to derive expert opini<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> linkage am<strong>on</strong>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> adverse<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, about 30 individuals have been interviewed from relevant sectors and<br />
two small expert group c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong>s have c<strong>on</strong>ducted. It is also to be noted that this report has been finalized<br />
through sharing with key stakeholders in a workshop and suggesti<strong>on</strong>s have been incorporated in the final<br />
report.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> analysis from expert interviews revealed that reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop yield by gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and total or partial<br />
damage due to extreme events are key <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> facing by crop agriculture sector. It is also to be noted that most<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the crops are affected at flowering to grain-filling stage and thus <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> vary by agro-ecological z<strong>on</strong>e. It has<br />
been revealed that 50% reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop producti<strong>on</strong> would increase <strong>poverty</strong> at the same percentage.<br />
Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce 12% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> GDP<br />
c<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong> for a particular disaster. Effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e are more severe than flood. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> experts agreed that 60%<br />
damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop by a cycl<strong>on</strong>e increases <strong>poverty</strong> at the same percentage affecting their resources and livelihoods,<br />
and decreases ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty eradicati<strong>on</strong> and hunger)<br />
is badly affected and pushed backward. Besides, drought, cold spell, river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> etc. have remarkable<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> crop agriculture and c<strong>on</strong>sequently <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
In the fisheries sector <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will have both negative and positive <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> positive impact is<br />
possible increase in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> would not be remarkable<br />
in nati<strong>on</strong>al c<strong>on</strong>text rather it would affect investment at individual level. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> key experts’ interviews and<br />
c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshops revealed that flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e affect culture fisheries severely while effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> other<br />
shocks such as drought, salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong>, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. This<br />
leads to loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor fishermen and decrease nutriti<strong>on</strong> status <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the rural poor. Moreover,<br />
frequent warnings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e lead the fishermen to stay at home for l<strong>on</strong>ger periods and thus their income<br />
decreased which increased their <strong>poverty</strong> level.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> with key experts’ state that livestock sector is badly affected by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability and shocks.<br />
xiv<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Flood, drought, cycl<strong>on</strong>e, sea level rise etc. are the major <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> induced natural disasters which cause loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
livestock, damage pasturelands, increase fodder scarcity, destroy shelters, decrease producti<strong>on</strong>, increase<br />
management cost through incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diseases etc. It is also perceive that severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
and extremes <strong>on</strong> livestock affect <strong>poverty</strong> moderately. But the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sea level rise affects <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this particular sector severely as stated by the key experts. Drought, salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and heat<br />
wave affect the sector moderately and c<strong>on</strong>sequently, both <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth are moderately affected.<br />
Thus, the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> livestock affect <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> activities and in attaining the MDGs.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extreme weather events especially, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge <strong>on</strong> forestry affect <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in different ways. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> supper cycl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr destructed <strong>on</strong>e-quarter <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Sundarbans and<br />
almost 100% afforested trees al<strong>on</strong>g its path. Poverty is severely affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>e in the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
impact <strong>on</strong> forestry. Livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor and marginal communities in the forest areas, especially in the<br />
Sundarbans area mostly depend <strong>on</strong> forest resources. Very pertinently, <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shocks <strong>on</strong> forestry affect the<br />
poor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> that particular livelihood group. It is perceived that salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> severely affect forest trees and<br />
resources especially in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>. This has moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
other shocks like flood and drought have moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> forestry which has low <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. Besides this, erratic rainfall and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> have low <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> forestry and lower<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong>.<br />
It is likely that the gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> phenomena such as temperature rise and erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall will lead<br />
to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> will deteriorate water quality in<br />
the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events particularly cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge will damage<br />
water supply and sanitati<strong>on</strong> infrastructure particularly in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e are the two major climatic events which affect industry sector severely. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> women workers<br />
involved in handloom become fully unemployed during flood. In the coastal area, industry and infrastructure are<br />
mainly affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge. It destroys buildings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> industries and machineries in <strong>on</strong>e hand; <strong>on</strong><br />
the other hand, it destroys roads and other communicati<strong>on</strong> networks, power supply networks, water supply<br />
networks, and causes health degradati<strong>on</strong> and death <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> workers. Moreover, salinity has large scale <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong><br />
industry.<br />
Human health suffers from different climatic variability and shocks in different ways. It is revealed from the<br />
analysis that health is affected, especially during and after shocks like flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e. Flood affects sources <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
drinking water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> system through c<strong>on</strong>taminati<strong>on</strong> which lead to out break <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea, cholera, skin<br />
diseases including scabies, drowning, snake bite and even death. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e, sea level rise and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
cause outbreaks <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea, cholera and other water borne diseases, use <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> saline water causes hypertensi<strong>on</strong>,<br />
increase blood pressure, corrosive effects due to salt in air, scabies and other skin diseases. Besides that, drought,<br />
erratic rainfall and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> increase vector borne diseases, heat stroke, malnutriti<strong>on</strong>, fever etc. Cold<br />
wave creates respiratory problem, especially that <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> children and the old.<br />
Strategies and acti<strong>on</strong>s suggested in the report to deal with adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and related disasters are based <strong>on</strong> suggesti<strong>on</strong>s derived from different c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshops and key<br />
experts’ interviews. Key principles c<strong>on</strong>sidered in formulating strategies and acti<strong>on</strong>s were a) reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> exposure<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> income stream and producti<strong>on</strong> systems, b) reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitivity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the exposed systems, and c) increase<br />
adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerable communities. Instituti<strong>on</strong>al and capacity building aspects to support<br />
implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> acti<strong>on</strong>s have also been c<strong>on</strong>sidered. It was found that there is similarity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> suggesti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
menti<strong>on</strong>ed here and in the nati<strong>on</strong>al <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> strategy and acti<strong>on</strong> plan.<br />
In order to address adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> greenhouse gas emissi<strong>on</strong> in the c<strong>on</strong>text<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and nati<strong>on</strong>al ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s have been suggested by different stakeholders<br />
including <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in planning process while designing programs and projects by different ministries and<br />
departments in the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitive geographical regi<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se include short, medium and l<strong>on</strong>g term<br />
perspective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, create enabling c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> perspectives, ensure<br />
participati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> all relevant stakeholders particularly potential vulnerable communities to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
xv
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> being a focal point for developing medium and l<strong>on</strong>g term plans for Bangladesh and<br />
facilitating key decisi<strong>on</strong> making process <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh, it needs to play an important role to<br />
address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and vulnerability in their planning process. In order to bring <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s General<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> has to improve its capability as well as facilitate other relevant<br />
ministries and departments. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following are major areas for immediate attenti<strong>on</strong> and acti<strong>on</strong> has been<br />
suggested.<br />
Knowledge and Research<br />
Encourage and motivate relevant sectoral ministries and department to enhance existing research and<br />
initiate new research linking <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth;<br />
Develop disaggregated database <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth to facilitate quantitative<br />
analysis and assessment <strong>on</strong> inter-linkage am<strong>on</strong>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
and designing different interventi<strong>on</strong>s to address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>;<br />
Facilitate development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a comprehensive landuse and land z<strong>on</strong>ing plan for proper utilizati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> land<br />
resources to support <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in a sustainable manner. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> land z<strong>on</strong>ing also<br />
should incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> as it will bring <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> physical envir<strong>on</strong>ment; and<br />
Support facilities for informati<strong>on</strong> gathering through scientific research, and made provisi<strong>on</strong> to support<br />
activities addressing <strong>poverty</strong>, ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> together.<br />
Capacity Building<br />
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> should setup a Climate Change Unit to enhance<br />
GED’s knowledge base. It should also build awareness and capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> staff <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> planning cell <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> every ministry<br />
and department.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> proposed <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> unit must coordinate with all relevant government agencies at all levels,<br />
including both vertical and horiz<strong>on</strong>tal while designing and implementing project;<br />
GED should made provisi<strong>on</strong> for financial support to enhance technical capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> other ministries and<br />
departments to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in development and implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> project.<br />
Policy Issues<br />
Initiating policy review toward incorporati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues in the policy, programme and project<br />
development;<br />
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> (GED) will give priority to the programme and project addressing <strong>poverty</strong>,<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> together;<br />
GED should facilitate/expedite extensi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> available research knowledge and good practices/technologies<br />
addressing <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth together;<br />
GED should emphasize agriculture friendly planning process by incorporating CC <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
In order to address the above need, this study has recommended three immediate activities to understand the<br />
issues related to inter-linkage am<strong>on</strong>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and facilitate decisi<strong>on</strong><br />
making process. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se are a) enhance understanding and knowledge <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and development with<br />
special focus <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, b) quantitative analysis and assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong> by regi<strong>on</strong>s and livelihood groups, and c) Capacity Enhancement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Planning Cadre <strong>on</strong> Climate Change Issues.<br />
xvi<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Resp<strong>on</strong>ding to <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Millennium Development Challenge through Private Sector’s Involvement in Bangladesh<br />
Background
1. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Millennium Declarati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the United Nati<strong>on</strong>s was adopted in 2000 by all member states followed by a list<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were inclusive <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 18 targets and 48 indicators. Bangladesh is<br />
committed to achieve the MDGs within the stipulated timeframe, i.e. 2015. Following the adopti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
Millennium Declarati<strong>on</strong>, the Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategy Paper (PRSP), the medium term budgetary framework and<br />
the annual development plan were tuned with the MDGs’ targets. However, progress towards attainment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> MDGs<br />
has been mixed in Bangladesh. People living in the remote char and river erosi<strong>on</strong> areas with little assets and<br />
employment opportunities in the lean period are usual victims <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extreme <strong>poverty</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> progress in meeting MDGs<br />
include reducti<strong>on</strong> in gender disparity in primary and sec<strong>on</strong>dary schooling; reducti<strong>on</strong> in proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong><br />
below the nati<strong>on</strong>al <strong>poverty</strong> line; promoti<strong>on</strong> and implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> minimum level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> energy c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong>; and,<br />
achievement to a certain degree in reducti<strong>on</strong> in incidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> communicable diseases and promoting safe drinking<br />
water supply.<br />
“Millennium Development Goals: <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Mid-Term Bangladesh Progress Report-2007” has highlighted several<br />
challenges in achieving the MDG targets. Overall, the target <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> achieving <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> is <strong>on</strong> the track but the<br />
major challenge is increasing the share <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poorest quintile in the nati<strong>on</strong>al income. Statistics from 1991 to 2005<br />
shows that share <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poorest quintile has decreased from 6.5 percent to 5.3 percent against the target to<br />
increase 14.0 percent by 2015. Bangladesh has two risks in meeting the target - failing to sustain the present trend<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and the extreme groups might get lesser benefits from the ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. On the issue <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
health, particularly to deal with Malaria, the country needs to develop str<strong>on</strong>g mechanisms to m<strong>on</strong>itor outbreak <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the disease in high-risk district(s) and to develop effective treatments for drug resistant malaria strains.<br />
Simultaneously, increase in detecti<strong>on</strong> and cure rates, al<strong>on</strong>g with improvements in the quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diagnostic services,<br />
will pose a major challenge for the country.<br />
1.1 Climate Change and Millennium Development Goals<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> pattern and behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>, including variability and extreme events, play a significant role in freshwater<br />
availability; in agriculture and its productivity; in the functi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural ecosystems and biodiversity; in influencing<br />
human health; and in influencing the livelihood <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the people dependent <strong>on</strong> the natural resource base. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se<br />
characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> either create a favourable c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> for a system to functi<strong>on</strong> better, or put risk <strong>on</strong> a system<br />
and increase its vulnerability. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, and the performance <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a nati<strong>on</strong> and society rely to a<br />
large extent <strong>on</strong> the behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is an envir<strong>on</strong>mental issue having significant implicati<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> development, including achievement<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and its targets. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Nati<strong>on</strong>al Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
(2009-2011) has recognised <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> as <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the emerging issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are<br />
generally the most vulnerable to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> because they live in areas more pr<strong>on</strong>e to flooding, cycl<strong>on</strong>es,<br />
droughts etc., and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>y are also more dependent <strong>on</strong> ecosystem services<br />
and products for their livelihoods. Any impact that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> has <strong>on</strong> natural systems therefore threatens the<br />
livelihoods, food intake and health <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor people. Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> employment and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> assets are likely to reduce<br />
opportunities for educati<strong>on</strong> in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children may be<br />
required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm<br />
surges damage school facilities and educati<strong>on</strong>al materials. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table provides linkage between<br />
Millennium Development Goals and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
Table 1.1 Linkages between Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change Vulnerability C<strong>on</strong>text<br />
Millennium<br />
Development Goals<br />
Goal 1: Eradicate<br />
extreme <strong>poverty</strong><br />
and hunger<br />
Climate Change C<strong>on</strong>text<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Livelihood and income <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a large populati<strong>on</strong> depends <strong>on</strong> the natural resource base and most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the poor people <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten live in marginalized lands and areas more pr<strong>on</strong>e to natural disasters.<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> means that many natural disaster pr<strong>on</strong>e areas will become more pr<strong>on</strong>e due to<br />
increased frequency and intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> disasters. Drought pr<strong>on</strong>e areas will become hotter and drier,<br />
with less predictable rainfall; flood frequency and intensity al<strong>on</strong>g <strong>on</strong>set and recessi<strong>on</strong> will be<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>d in future; nature <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges will be different from the historical trend.<br />
3
Goal 2: Achieve universal<br />
primary educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Goal 3: Promotegender<br />
equality and empower<br />
women<br />
Goals 4, 5 and 6: Health<br />
related issues<br />
Goal 7:<br />
Ensureenvir<strong>on</strong>mental<br />
sustainability<br />
Source: Modified from Reid H and Alam M, 2005<br />
1.2 Climate and Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh is influenced by m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> and characterized by high temperature, heavy<br />
rainfall, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten-excessive humidity and marked seas<strong>on</strong>al variati<strong>on</strong>s. Although more than half the area is north <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
Tropics, the effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Himalayan mountain chain is such as to make the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> more or less tropical throughout<br />
the year. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> is c<strong>on</strong>trolled primarily by summer and winter winds, and partly by pre-m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> (March to<br />
May) and post-m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> (late October to November) circulati<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Southwest M<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> originates over the<br />
Indian Ocean, and carries warm, moist and unstable air. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> easterly Trade Winds are also warm, but relatively drier.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Northeast M<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> comes from the Siberian Desert, retaining most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> its pristine cold, and blows over the<br />
country, usually in gusts, during dry winter m<strong>on</strong>ths.<br />
Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events and natural disasters. It is<br />
expected that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will bring <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural hazards and gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s<br />
phenomen<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the physical system. Studies and assessments <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, vulnerabilities and adaptati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and sea level rise for Bangladesh clearly dem<strong>on</strong>strates that Bangladesh is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the most <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
vulnerable countries in the world. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fourth Assessment Report <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Intergovernmental Panel <strong>on</strong> Climate<br />
Change (IPCC), for South Asia, predicts that m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during<br />
m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> in the river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters<br />
which will lead to salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and coastal flooding. Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic.<br />
Frequency and intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural disasters are likely to increase especially in the northern and western part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the country.<br />
4<br />
All <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these together will <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop yields and affect many poor people’s livelihoods. For<br />
example, 2007 floods inundated 32,000 sq. km in area that destroyed over 85,000 houses and<br />
approximately 1.2 milli<strong>on</strong> acres <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crops were destroyed or partially damaged. Total estimated<br />
loss in terms <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dollar was over $1 billi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
It is likely that natural disasters will damage more houses and will cause temporary migrati<strong>on</strong>. It<br />
may also require children to help more with household works leaving less time for schooling.<br />
Malnourishment and diseases also impair learning. Extreme <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related disasters<br />
threaten school buildings and educati<strong>on</strong>al materials. For example, cycl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr caused huge<br />
damage to school buildings and wiped out teaching materials.<br />
Adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> are likely to reduce availability and deteriorate quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
water for domestic use. Fetching water for domestic use, for which women are usually<br />
resp<strong>on</strong>sible are likely to bear disproporti<strong>on</strong>ate hardship when provisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these vital<br />
necessities becomes difficult.<br />
Direct <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> effects include increases in mortality and illness associated with heat waves,<br />
particularly am<strong>on</strong>gst the elderly and the urban poor. Women and children are particularly vulnerable<br />
to extreme weather events. For example, when the 1991 cycl<strong>on</strong>e hit Bangladesh, 90 percent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> victims<br />
were women and children.<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is likely to increase the prevalence and infecti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vector and water-borne diseases<br />
such as malaria and dengue fever, cholera and dysentery etc, Children and pregnant women are<br />
particularly susceptible to such diseases.<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will probably cause a decline in the quantity and quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking water, which is a<br />
prerequisite for good health. Malnutriti<strong>on</strong>, main cause <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ill health am<strong>on</strong>g children, could also be<br />
exacerbated due to declining natural resource productivity and inadequate supply <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> food insecurity.<br />
Changes in temperature and rainfall distributi<strong>on</strong>, and sea level rise and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> are<br />
likely to <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> ecosystem characteristics and shift ecosystem boundaries. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
also poses a greater survival threat than the destructi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> many natural habitats including<br />
coral reefs. Degradati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> biodiversity will reduce the availability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> many traditi<strong>on</strong>al<br />
medicines which may affect poor and rural people who depend more <strong>on</strong> natural resources<br />
for medicine as well as income and food.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Several early evidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the above phenomen<strong>on</strong> and its associated <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the agriculture system are already<br />
visible in Bangladesh. Erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall and temperature, occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extreme weather events and<br />
salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> are key indicati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the climatic system. Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the climatic system <strong>on</strong><br />
producti<strong>on</strong> and human system are also being noticed in Bangladesh. Am<strong>on</strong>g the different producti<strong>on</strong> system,<br />
agriculture will face significant adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in hydrological regime which<br />
will be influenced by temperature, m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> rainfall and regi<strong>on</strong>al water flow, and extreme weather events. More<br />
water in m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> will cause floods and low water flow and erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall will result in intense<br />
and frequent drought.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> major envir<strong>on</strong>mental issues identified and addressed in the Fifth Five Year Plan are natural disasters, industrial<br />
polluti<strong>on</strong>, health and sanitati<strong>on</strong>, deforestati<strong>on</strong>, desertificati<strong>on</strong>, <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in climatic c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>, increased intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
droughts, severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> floods, increased salinity/tidal surge or water stagnancy and deteriorating habitat <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flora and<br />
fauna. Since the Fifth Five Year Plan, there had been no other nati<strong>on</strong>al development plan. But the government has<br />
prepared a Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategy Paper (PRSP) which has more or less reiterated the same c<strong>on</strong>cerns in various<br />
forms within the document apart from a separate chapter <strong>on</strong> envir<strong>on</strong>ment which includes resource management,<br />
envir<strong>on</strong>mental health, biodiversity and multilateral envir<strong>on</strong>mental agreements including those related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh has prepared the sec<strong>on</strong>d Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategy for the country and<br />
adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is being c<strong>on</strong>sidered as <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the key challenges in achieving different targets<br />
including Millennium Development Goals.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
5
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Study
2. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> United Nati<strong>on</strong>s Development Programme (<strong>UNDP</strong>) is undertaking a project “Support to M<strong>on</strong>itoring Poverty<br />
Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategies and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Bangladesh” to enhance the instituti<strong>on</strong>al<br />
capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the government’s General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> (GED) as the Nati<strong>on</strong>al Poverty Focal Point. Enhancement<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> instituti<strong>on</strong>al capacity includes skills and technical know how <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> its <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ficials that would enable them to resp<strong>on</strong>d to<br />
the planning perspectives <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the dynamically evolving socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic circumstances in the country as well as<br />
emerging challenges <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Under this project, Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> under the Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning is<br />
carrying out a research project <strong>on</strong> “<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with Adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh.” Bangladesh Centre for Advanced<br />
Studies (BCAS) has been awarded this research project and signed a Memorandum <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Understanding (MoU) in May,<br />
2008 with the United Nati<strong>on</strong>s Development Programme (<strong>UNDP</strong>).<br />
2.1 Objectives <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Project<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> overall objective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the project is to enhance instituti<strong>on</strong>al capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> to<br />
resp<strong>on</strong>d to the planning perspectives <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the dynamically evolving socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic circumstances under changing<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> specific objectives are;<br />
Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> MDGs with special focus <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Hunger, and<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and formulate a strategy to deal with adverse effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in Bangladesh;<br />
Equip the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> with technical know-how and policy choices to resp<strong>on</strong>d <strong>on</strong> planning<br />
perspective related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country;<br />
Enhance understanding and knowledge <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> (income and social) and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth (overall GDP and sectoral c<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong>);<br />
Develop a strategy to cope with adverse effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> (adaptati<strong>on</strong> and mitigati<strong>on</strong> strategy which will<br />
include opti<strong>on</strong>s, policy choices, instituti<strong>on</strong>al capacity needs for mainstreaming adaptati<strong>on</strong> at nati<strong>on</strong>al and sectoral<br />
level, and capacity strengthening <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> GED to facilitate sectoral integrati<strong>on</strong>).<br />
2.2 Scope <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Work<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> research has developed c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework for understanding the linkages between <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> & vulnerability and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth particularly <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> and other Millennium Development<br />
Goals. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study has focused and analyzed the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong> by<br />
analyzing <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> sectors include agriculture and land resources, water resources, health<br />
and sanitati<strong>on</strong>, housing, industry and infrastructure.<br />
Based <strong>on</strong> the c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework and analyzing available literature <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <strong>poverty</strong> including<br />
PRSP and MDGs, strategies have been developed to deal with adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> which will<br />
enhance the adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the vulnerable sectors and communities. This strategy document includes policy<br />
and advocacy tools which will help to enhance capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the pers<strong>on</strong>nel <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> GED to address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues<br />
and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> in their planning process. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> specific scope <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> work is given below.<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework and methodology for assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<strong>on</strong> MDGs with special focus <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Hunger, and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth;<br />
Carryout analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> collected data and informati<strong>on</strong> using the c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework and methodology;<br />
Capture expert knowledge and understanding <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different Millennium<br />
Development Goals, <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and strategies with different acti<strong>on</strong>s to deal with these <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>;<br />
Formulate a strategy to deal with adverse effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in Bangladesh which will enhance capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> with technical know how and policy choices to resp<strong>on</strong>d <strong>on</strong> planning perspective<br />
related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
9
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
C<strong>on</strong>ceptual Framework<br />
Methodology and Tools
3. This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative approaches and used primary and sec<strong>on</strong>dary data<br />
and informati<strong>on</strong>. Understanding the relati<strong>on</strong>ship between <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <strong>poverty</strong> was <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the key thinking<br />
processes and activities which has been carried out through analyzing available <strong>poverty</strong> related data and<br />
informati<strong>on</strong>; informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, vulnerability and its <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors; statistics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth; review available policies and strategies including Nati<strong>on</strong>al Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Millennium Development Goals and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan. Based <strong>on</strong> these<br />
analyses, this final report c<strong>on</strong>tains policy, and strategy needed to deal with adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in<br />
the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, and possible role <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong>. This report has been<br />
shared with relevant stakeholders through workshops and suggesti<strong>on</strong>s have been incorporated in the final report.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework, approach and methodology, and analytical tools used to undertake this research are<br />
described below:<br />
3.1 C<strong>on</strong>ceptual Framework: Understanding and Framing Linkage between Poverty and Climate Change<br />
Understanding and framing linkages between adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <strong>poverty</strong> including other<br />
relevant Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the key issues to General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> (GED) for<br />
addressing <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and facilitate integrati<strong>on</strong> in implementati<strong>on</strong> process <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the PRSP and the MDGs. In<br />
order to understand the linkage and multi-dimensi<strong>on</strong>al aspects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <strong>poverty</strong> al<strong>on</strong>g with<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, this study used a framework to capture different elements. This framework suggested three<br />
key elements i.e. a) understand different aspects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, b) <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and vulnerability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> by regi<strong>on</strong> and by sectors with special focus <strong>on</strong> diverse livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the people, and c) link with<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> framework guided analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> both quantitative and qualitative<br />
data and informati<strong>on</strong> related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <strong>poverty</strong>. An elaborati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different elements <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework is given below.<br />
3.1.1 Climate Change<br />
A review and assessment has been carried out to understand <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> science, climatic trend and variability,<br />
and extreme events. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se include <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> temperature and rainfall, salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong>, erratic behaviour<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall and temperature, and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events such as flood, drought, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm<br />
surges. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> review and assessment were d<strong>on</strong>e based <strong>on</strong> available literature and studies <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, vulnerability<br />
and adaptati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> for Bangladesh including IPCC reports. A summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> observed <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the<br />
climatic system and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios is given in secti<strong>on</strong> 5 which helps to understand and assess<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s <strong>on</strong> different sectors supporting ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the people.<br />
3.1.2 Impacts and Vulnerability<br />
Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and vulnerability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors and by geographical regi<strong>on</strong> is the<br />
sec<strong>on</strong>d element <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework. Assessment has been d<strong>on</strong>e for agriculture including fisheries and<br />
livestock, water resources, human settlement, health, infrastructure, industries, and educati<strong>on</strong>. This assessment<br />
has been d<strong>on</strong>e through collecti<strong>on</strong> and review <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sec<strong>on</strong>dary data and literature, and collecti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> inputs from<br />
experts in the relevant field. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerability comp<strong>on</strong>ent includes both physical and social vulnerability. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
social <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and vulnerability focus <strong>on</strong> dependency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the people <strong>on</strong> different sectors and how those sectors<br />
are impacted due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> including extreme events.<br />
3.1.3 Review <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> PRSP and MDGs in the C<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change<br />
PRSP and MDGs has been reviewed to understand the status <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and hunger, educati<strong>on</strong>, health and<br />
envir<strong>on</strong>mental sustainability in the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> review has focused <strong>on</strong> adverse effects <strong>on</strong><br />
different strategies and goals <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> PRSP and MDGs against different <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>texts such as erratic rainfall<br />
and temperature, drought, flood, cycl<strong>on</strong>e, salinity, etc. Different government and n<strong>on</strong>-government projects<br />
related to <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong>, promoti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> educati<strong>on</strong>, health and envir<strong>on</strong>ment have also been reviewed in the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> review result has been used to understand the links and gaps <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> PRSP and MDGs<br />
in terms <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
13
One <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the critical issues <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework is that all aspects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will not equally affect<br />
a sector. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> will vary by space and time and hence the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> livelihood will eventually vary. Figure<br />
3.1 provides schematic representati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> strength <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> relati<strong>on</strong>ship <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> aspects and their <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong><br />
sectors and social development aspects.<br />
Figure 3.1 Strength <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Relati<strong>on</strong>ship <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climatic Signal and their Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Sectors and Social<br />
Development<br />
3.2 Strategy to Deal with Adverse Effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change<br />
Various strategies suggested in this study to deal with adverse effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> were based <strong>on</strong> several<br />
strategies and acti<strong>on</strong> plans already formulated by different ministries <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the government as well as suggesti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
and recommendati<strong>on</strong>s derived through different c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> processes. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study team collected available<br />
strategy documents related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and analyzed those to understand different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> measures to<br />
address the adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se analyses have focused <strong>on</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> exposure and<br />
sensitivity and enhancement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerable communities and sectors for short, medium and<br />
l<strong>on</strong>g term perspectives.<br />
3.2.1 Reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Exposure and Sensitivity<br />
Most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the sectors are more or less exposed to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> stimuli including variability and extremes, and <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
different degrees <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitivity. Temperature and rainfall are the two key elements <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> which have direct<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> agriculture, human health, infrastructure etc. This framework c<strong>on</strong>sidered sector-wise vulnerability to<br />
specific climatic element and at what level which c<strong>on</strong>tributed to develop appropriate strategies for reducing<br />
level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> exposure and sensitivity.<br />
3.2.2 Enhance Adaptive Capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerable Sectors and Communities<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study also suggested strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the vulnerable sectors and<br />
communities. Vulnerable sectors as well as communities identified from the sec<strong>on</strong>dary sources as well as<br />
suggesti<strong>on</strong>s and recommendati<strong>on</strong>s derived through c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> that help in developing different strategies to<br />
reduce vulnerabilities <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> communities. This includes different income generating opti<strong>on</strong>s and <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
adaptati<strong>on</strong> activities. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following figure shows overall framework for analyzing the situati<strong>on</strong> for development<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> strategies for adaptati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
14<br />
Climate Change Signal<br />
Hydrology<br />
(e.g. Floods &<br />
Droughts)<br />
Extreme Events<br />
(e.g. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
& Storm Surges)<br />
Source: Modified from Saleem et al., 2006<br />
Temperature<br />
(e.g. heat<br />
waves)<br />
Impacts <strong>on</strong> Sectors<br />
Social Development<br />
(Poverty Alleviati<strong>on</strong>/MDGs)<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Figure 3.2 Linkage and Formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Strategies for Adaptati<strong>on</strong> and Mitigati<strong>on</strong><br />
Source: IPCC<br />
Human interference<br />
MITIGATION<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> via<br />
GHG sources and sinks<br />
3.3 Analytical Methods and Tools<br />
Different analytical tools and methods are used for assessing the <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong><br />
and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. Both qualitative and quantitative methods, statistical tools, and Geographic Informati<strong>on</strong><br />
System (GIS) have been used to analyse <strong>poverty</strong> and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related data and informati<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following<br />
secti<strong>on</strong> provides a summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different approaches and methods employed in this study.<br />
3.3.1 Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth<br />
3.3.1.1 Analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty Database<br />
Analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> data includes compilati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> database by regi<strong>on</strong> and dependency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> household <strong>on</strong><br />
different sectors as primary source <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> income. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> primary source <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> income has been used as indicator <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> main<br />
livelihood. Data and informati<strong>on</strong> have been collected from sec<strong>on</strong>dary sources which include Bangladesh Bureau<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Statistics (BBS) for <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. Other sources are FAO, <strong>UNDP</strong> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> etc.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> team members visited these organizati<strong>on</strong>s for collecting data and informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> has been visited for collecti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> data <strong>on</strong><br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, PRSP and <strong>poverty</strong> related data and informati<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> collected data has been analyzed to<br />
understand the trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and linked with trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> for future<br />
planning. Geographic Informati<strong>on</strong> System (GIS) has been used to analyze data in the special c<strong>on</strong>text and<br />
presentati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> analytical informati<strong>on</strong> through maps.<br />
3.3.1.2 Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts <strong>on</strong> Key Sectors and by Regi<strong>on</strong>s<br />
While assessing <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors and society it is necessary to keep in mind that it will not<br />
affect all the sectors and regi<strong>on</strong>s equally as menti<strong>on</strong>ed in the c<strong>on</strong>ceptual framework. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors and by regi<strong>on</strong>s have been assessed using GIS and statistical package. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
IPCC reports, <strong>UNDP</strong> country study reports, Nati<strong>on</strong>al Adaptati<strong>on</strong> Programme <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Acti<strong>on</strong> (NAPA) and other relevant<br />
study reports have been reviewed and assessed during this assessment as well. One <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the critical issues is<br />
harm<strong>on</strong>izati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> time dimensi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and target <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> and Millennium<br />
Development Goals. This has been d<strong>on</strong>e by simple down scaling thought dividing level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> by time to match with <strong>poverty</strong> target and Millennium Development Goals.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
I M P A C T S<br />
CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
including variability<br />
Exposure,<br />
Sensitivity<br />
Initial Impacts<br />
or Effects<br />
Aut<strong>on</strong>omous<br />
Adjustments<br />
Residual or<br />
Net Impacts<br />
Policy resp<strong>on</strong>ses<br />
V U L N E R A B I L I T I E S<br />
Planned<br />
ADAPTATION<br />
to the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and<br />
vulnerabilities<br />
15
3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts<br />
Interview with key experts have been carried out using a check list covering the two major categories <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
informati<strong>on</strong> i.e. a) <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> related and b) resp<strong>on</strong>se related. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> interview with key experts focus <strong>on</strong> linkage<br />
am<strong>on</strong>g sectoral <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong>, strategy to address adverse effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and GDP,<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>al capacity building needs and arrangement. List <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Experts interviewed is given in Annex-A.<br />
3.3.1.4 Workshops<br />
Two workshops have been organized to capture expert opini<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> several aspects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong><br />
and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. Key questi<strong>on</strong>s addressed in the c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshops are a) what are the existing<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>? b) what are the existing coping strategies and practices? c) what are the <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>? d) what are the <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g> coping strategies and practices? e) what are the<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s we have to bring into planning process to address CC? f ) what role GED (Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong>) needs<br />
to play in the process? Experts included from government organizati<strong>on</strong>s, n<strong>on</strong>-government organizati<strong>on</strong>s,<br />
academics and civil society groups with relevant experiences and expertise.<br />
3.3.2 Formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Strategies and Policy Choices<br />
3.3.2.1 Formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Draft Strategies and Policy Choices<br />
Based <strong>on</strong> the above analysis, this report suggested strategies and policy choices to deal with adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> giving special focus <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Other Millennium Development Goals. Strategy and policy<br />
choices have been developed based <strong>on</strong> sec<strong>on</strong>dary informati<strong>on</strong>, outcome <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the interview with key experts and<br />
findings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the workshop. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se strategies are categorised under three broader categories a) means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> exposure, b) means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitivity, and c) means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> enhancement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
communities. Findings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the analysis, interviews and workshop have been compiled in this draft report.<br />
3.3.2.2 Workshop and Finalizati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Strategies<br />
A workshop was organized by the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> where the draft report<br />
was presented. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> final report has incorporated suggesti<strong>on</strong>s and recommendati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the workshop.<br />
16<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Climate Change, Impacts and<br />
vulnerability – Global and<br />
Regi<strong>on</strong>al C<strong>on</strong>text
4.1 Climate Change - Global C<strong>on</strong>text<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Intergovernmental Panel <strong>on</strong> Climate Change had unequivocally<br />
c<strong>on</strong>firmed the warming <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> system and linked it directly to human activity. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> warming were<br />
already grave and they were growing. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> global average surface temperature has already increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years; sea level rose at an average rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003; mountain glaciers<br />
and snow cover have declined <strong>on</strong> average in both hemispheres; eleven <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank<br />
am<strong>on</strong>g the 12 warmest years. C<strong>on</strong>tinued greenhouse gas emissi<strong>on</strong>s at or above current rates would cause<br />
further warming and induce many <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the global climatic system during the 21st century that would very<br />
likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> AR4 stated that for the next two decades, a warming <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> about 0.2˚C per decade is projected for a range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Special Report <strong>on</strong> Emissi<strong>on</strong> Scenarios (SRES). Even if the c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> all greenhouse gases and aerosols had<br />
been kept c<strong>on</strong>stant at year 2000 levels, a further warming <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> about 0.1˚C per decade would be expected.<br />
Expected <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in global mean temperature is likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4˚C from 1990 to 2100 while water<br />
availability will increase in moist tropics and high latitudes and decrease in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low<br />
latitudes. Sea levels are likely to rise in the range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 22-34 cm between 1990 and the 2080s. Future tropical<br />
cycl<strong>on</strong>es, typho<strong>on</strong>s, and hurricanes will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavy<br />
precipitati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
4.1.1 Impacted Sectors: Freshwater Resources<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fourth Assessment Report <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the IPCC projected that by mid-century, annual average river run<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f and water<br />
availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by<br />
10-30% over some dry regi<strong>on</strong>s at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> which are presently water-stressed<br />
areas. Drought-affected areas are likely to increase to a c<strong>on</strong>siderable extent. Heavy precipitati<strong>on</strong> events, which<br />
are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. In the course <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this century, water supplies stored<br />
in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regi<strong>on</strong>s supplied by melt water<br />
from major mountain ranges, where more than <strong>on</strong>e-sixth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the world populati<strong>on</strong> currently lives.<br />
4.1.2 Ecosystem<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> resilience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded by this century by an unprecedented combinati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, associated with disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidificati<strong>on</strong>), and<br />
other global <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> drivers (e.g., land use <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, polluti<strong>on</strong>, over-exploitati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> resources). Approximately 20-<br />
30% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extincti<strong>on</strong> if increases in<br />
global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5˚C. For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5-2.5˚C<br />
and in c<strong>on</strong>comitant atmospheric carb<strong>on</strong> dioxide c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong>s, there are projected to be major <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the<br />
ecosystem structure and functi<strong>on</strong>, species’ ecological interacti<strong>on</strong>s, and species’ geographical ranges, with<br />
predominantly negative c<strong>on</strong>sequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services e.g., water and food<br />
supply. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> progressive acidificati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> oceans due to increasing atmospheric carb<strong>on</strong> dioxide is expected to have<br />
negative <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> marine shell-forming organisms (e.g., corals) and their dependent species.<br />
4.1.3 Food, Fibre & Forest Product<br />
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> up to 1-3˚C depending <strong>on</strong> the crop, and then decrease bey<strong>on</strong>d that in some regi<strong>on</strong>s. At lower latitudes,<br />
especially seas<strong>on</strong>ally dry and tropical regi<strong>on</strong>s, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local<br />
temperature increases (1-2˚C), which would increase the risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> hunger. Globally, the potential for food<br />
producti<strong>on</strong> is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1-3˚C, but above<br />
this it is projected to decrease. Increase in the frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> droughts and floods is projected to affect local crop<br />
producti<strong>on</strong> negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.<br />
Globally, the potential for food producti<strong>on</strong> is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature<br />
over a range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1-3˚C, but above this it is projected to decrease. Regi<strong>on</strong>al <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the distributi<strong>on</strong> and<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
19
producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> particular fish species are expected due to c<strong>on</strong>tinued warming, with adverse effects projected for<br />
aquaculture and fisheries. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> important challenge would be access to and distributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> food.<br />
4.1.4 Coastal & Low Lying Areas<br />
Coastal systems and low-lying areas are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosi<strong>on</strong>,<br />
due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and sea-level rise. Many milli<strong>on</strong> more people are projected to be flooded every year due<br />
to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively<br />
low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at<br />
risk. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Asia and Africa while small islands are especially<br />
vulnerable. Adaptati<strong>on</strong> for coasts will be more challenging in developing countries than in developed countries,<br />
due to c<strong>on</strong>straints <strong>on</strong> adaptive capacity.<br />
4.1.5 Industry and Human Settlement<br />
Industry, settlement and society: costs and benefits <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> for industry, settlement and society will<br />
vary widely by locati<strong>on</strong> and scale. In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger<br />
the <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal<br />
and river flood plains, those whose ec<strong>on</strong>omies are closely linked with <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>-sensitive resources, and those in<br />
areas pr<strong>on</strong>e to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisati<strong>on</strong> is occurring. Poor communities can<br />
be especially vulnerable, in particular those c<strong>on</strong>centrated in high-risk areas. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>y tend to have more limited<br />
adaptive capacities, and are more dependent <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>-sensitive resources such as local water and food<br />
supplies.<br />
4.1.6 Health and Nutriti<strong>on</strong><br />
Projected <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>-related exposures are likely to affect the health status <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> milli<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> people, particularly<br />
those with low adaptive capacity, through increases in malnutriti<strong>on</strong> and c<strong>on</strong>sequent disorders, with implicati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
for child growth and development; increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat-waves, floods, storms, fires<br />
and droughts; the increased burden <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoeal disease; the increased frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cardio-respiratory diseases<br />
due to higher c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ground-level oz<strong>on</strong>e related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>; and, the altered spatial<br />
distributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> some infectious disease vectors.<br />
By 2020, between 75 milli<strong>on</strong> and 250 milli<strong>on</strong> people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate waterrelated<br />
problems. Agricultural producti<strong>on</strong>, including access to food, in many African countries and regi<strong>on</strong>s is<br />
projected to be severely compromised by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability and <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> area suitable for agriculture, the<br />
length <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> growing seas<strong>on</strong>s and yield potential, particularly al<strong>on</strong>g the margins <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> semi-arid and arid areas, are<br />
expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutriti<strong>on</strong> in the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>tinent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.<br />
Towards the end <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large<br />
populati<strong>on</strong>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> cost <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> could amount to at least 5-10% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Glacier<br />
melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and to<br />
affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the<br />
glaciers recede.<br />
4.2 Climate Change - Regi<strong>on</strong>al C<strong>on</strong>text<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fourth Assessment Report <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Intergovernmental Panel <strong>on</strong> Climate Change (IPCC), for South Asia, predicts<br />
that m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> in the river system. It has<br />
also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and<br />
coastal flooding.<br />
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and<br />
to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as<br />
20<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river<br />
basins, is projected to decrease due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> which, al<strong>on</strong>g with populati<strong>on</strong> growth and increasing<br />
demand arising from higher standards <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> living, could adversely affect more than a billi<strong>on</strong> people by the 2050s.<br />
Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega delta regi<strong>on</strong>s in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at<br />
greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some mega deltas, flooding from the rivers. Climate<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is projected to impinge <strong>on</strong> the sustainable development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> most developing countries <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Asia, as it<br />
compounds the pressures <strong>on</strong> natural resources and the envir<strong>on</strong>ment associated with rapid urbanisati<strong>on</strong>,<br />
industrialisati<strong>on</strong>, and ec<strong>on</strong>omic development.<br />
It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia while they could decrease up<br />
to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and c<strong>on</strong>sidering the influence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rapid<br />
populati<strong>on</strong> growth and urbanisati<strong>on</strong>, the risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing<br />
countries.<br />
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are<br />
expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the hydrological cycle associated<br />
with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
cholera in South Asia.<br />
Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates ranging from 10 to 60m per year and many small glaciers (
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Climate Change – Bangladesh
5. Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> phenomena <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> as well as <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events. It is expected that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will bring <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> gradual<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> phenomen<strong>on</strong> and natural hazards which will result <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in physical, social and producti<strong>on</strong> system.<br />
Studies and assessments <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, vulnerabilities and adaptati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and sea level rise for<br />
Bangladesh clearly dem<strong>on</strong>strate that Bangladesh is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the most <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerable countries in the world.<br />
Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic. Frequency and intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural disasters are likely to<br />
increase especially in the northern and western part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country. Several early evidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the above<br />
phenomen<strong>on</strong> and its associated <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the agriculture, health, water and sanitati<strong>on</strong>, biodiversity are already<br />
visible in Bangladesh.<br />
Overall <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Bangladesh would be significant. It is estimated that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> could<br />
affect more that 70 milli<strong>on</strong> people <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh due to its geographic locati<strong>on</strong>, low elevati<strong>on</strong>, high populati<strong>on</strong><br />
density, poor infrastructure, high levels <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and high dependency <strong>on</strong> natural resources1 . It was found that<br />
the populati<strong>on</strong> living in the coastal area is more vulnerable than the populati<strong>on</strong> in other areas (Alam and Laurel,<br />
2005). Coastal resources up<strong>on</strong> which the most people depend are likely to be affected severally due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
variability and <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>2 . It is predicted that for 45 cm rise <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sea level may inundate 10-15% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the land by the<br />
year 2050 resulting over 35 milli<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> refugees from the coastal districts3 . Ultimately adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> have<br />
the potential to undermine <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> efforts and could compromise the Millennium Development goals<br />
(MDGs), such as the eradicati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and hunger by 2015. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> OECD and World Bank also estimated that<br />
40% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to Bangladesh may be <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitive or at risk.<br />
It is also revealed from the studies and assessments that the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerabilities and associated <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
vary by spatial, temporal scale and socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> communities, resulting need for different<br />
adaptati<strong>on</strong> measures and acti<strong>on</strong>s. Coastal area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is pr<strong>on</strong>e to salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and tropical cycl<strong>on</strong>e;<br />
floodplains in the central areas are pr<strong>on</strong>e to flood; north western regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is pr<strong>on</strong>e to drought; north<br />
eastern part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is pr<strong>on</strong>e to flash flood; and hilly regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is pr<strong>on</strong>e to erosi<strong>on</strong> and<br />
landslide. Water resources and agriculture reported to be most impacted sectors due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
Recogniti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic development, life and livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor<br />
and ultimately impeding Millennium Development Goals has pushed urgent need for adaptati<strong>on</strong> to deal with<br />
unavoidable <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> stimuli including variability and extreme events in Bangladesh. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forests, Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh has prepared Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and<br />
Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan 2008 as a living document and has allocated about US$ 43 milli<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> development partners in<br />
Bangladesh and the Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh have also agreed to setup a Multi-d<strong>on</strong>or Trust Fund (MTF) to<br />
deal with Climate Change adaptati<strong>on</strong> and mitigati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
5.1 Climate Change Studies Bangladesh<br />
Over the last decade several studies have been c<strong>on</strong>ducted <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, vulnerability and<br />
adaptati<strong>on</strong> assessments for Bangladesh using different <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios. Most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the studies focus <strong>on</strong><br />
water, agriculture, biodiversity, human health, and infrastructure (BCAS et al., 1994; Huq et al., 1999; World Bank,<br />
2000; ADB, 1994; MOEF, 2000). Recently several studies have been c<strong>on</strong>ducted at sub-nati<strong>on</strong>al/geographical subregi<strong>on</strong><br />
scale as well as <strong>on</strong> different sectors with special focus <strong>on</strong> coastal z<strong>on</strong>e and agriculture sector (IWM and<br />
CEGIS, 2007; BCAS, 2007; CEGIS, 2006; CNRS, 2007). In 2005, Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forests has formulated<br />
Nati<strong>on</strong>al Adaptati<strong>on</strong> Programme <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Acti<strong>on</strong> (NAPA) (MOEF, 2005) to address immediate and urgent needs to deal<br />
with <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Very recently the Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh has prepared Climate Change Strategy and<br />
Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan 2008 to deal with adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> which includes six thematic areas and 37<br />
programmes. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> thematic area includes a) food security, social protecti<strong>on</strong> and health, b) comprehensive disaster<br />
management, c) infrastructure, d) research and knowledge management, e) mitigati<strong>on</strong> and low carb<strong>on</strong><br />
management, and f ) capacity building and instituti<strong>on</strong>al strengthening (GoB, 2008). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following secti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
1<br />
UN Human Development Report 2007/'08<br />
2<br />
OECD, 2003<br />
3<br />
Climate Change Cell, DoE, Bangladesh<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
25
provide a) summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios including regi<strong>on</strong>al variati<strong>on</strong> and variati<strong>on</strong> between global and<br />
regi<strong>on</strong>al models, b) <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors including water, agriculture and health.<br />
5.2 Present and Future Scenario <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate<br />
5.2.1 Observed Changes<br />
5.2.1.1 Temperature<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> observed climatic data from 1971 to 2002 indicate that the temperature is generally increasing in the<br />
m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> (June, July and August). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> average m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> maximum and minimum temperatures show an<br />
increasing trend annually at 0.05˚C and 0.03˚C, respectively. Average winter seas<strong>on</strong> (December, January and<br />
February) maximum and minimum temperature show respectively a decreasing and an increasing trend annually<br />
at 0.001˚C and 0.016˚C (Rahman Alam: 2003). It is also revealed that 1998 was the warmest year in the last 30 years.<br />
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) has studied surface climatological data <strong>on</strong> m<strong>on</strong>thly and annual<br />
mean maximum and minimum temperature, and m<strong>on</strong>thly and annual rainfall for the period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1961-90. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
study showed an increasing trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> mean maximum and minimum temperature in some seas<strong>on</strong>s and<br />
decreasing trend in some others. Overall trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the annual mean maximum temperature has shown a<br />
significant increase over the period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1961-90. Regi<strong>on</strong>al variati<strong>on</strong>s have been observed around the average<br />
trend (SMRC, 2003).<br />
Bogra and Rangpur are two am<strong>on</strong>g other meteorological stati<strong>on</strong>s in the northwest regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh.<br />
Observed data <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Bogra Stati<strong>on</strong> from 1971 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum<br />
temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.008˚C and 0.003˚C, respectively. However, rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> is higher than annual rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. In m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> (June, July and August),<br />
average maximum and minimum temperature show an increasing trend annually at the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.033˚C and<br />
0.014˚C, respectively which means m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> is becoming warmer. On the other hand average maximum<br />
temperature in winter seas<strong>on</strong> (December, January and February) shows almost no <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> while minimum<br />
temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.035˚C which means winter is also becoming<br />
warmer.<br />
Observed data <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Rangpur Stati<strong>on</strong> from 1978 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum<br />
temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.035˚C and 0.027˚C, respectively. However, rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> maximum temperature in the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> is slightly lower than annual rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. In<br />
m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> (June, July and August), average maximum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at<br />
the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.02˚C while <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in minimum temperature in the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> is insignificant. On the other<br />
hand average maximum temperature in winter seas<strong>on</strong> (December, January and February) shows an increasing<br />
trend annually at the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.041˚C while minimum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.026˚C which reflects winter is also becoming warmer.<br />
5.2.1.2 Rainfall<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> mean annual rainfall <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is about 2300mm, but there exists a wide spatial and temporal<br />
distributi<strong>on</strong>. Annual rainfall ranges from 1200mm in the extreme west to over 5000mm in the east and northeast<br />
(MPO, 1991). It is 1220 mm in the north-western part, 1490mm in the central part, 3380mm in the coastal<br />
areas, and over 5000mm in the north-eastern part - across the borders from Cherapunji and Mawsyriem, two <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the rainiest places in the world (Rashid, 1991). Possible c<strong>on</strong>necti<strong>on</strong>s with El Nino have <strong>on</strong>ly now begun to attract<br />
attenti<strong>on</strong> as a major possible influence <strong>on</strong> climatic patterns in the Sub-c<strong>on</strong>tinent.<br />
It was observed that during the last m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> (2006) there was lower rainfall and that resulted in reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Aman crop producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> about 25-30% (Karim, 2006). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> most remarkable <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall is the <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in<br />
durati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainy seas<strong>on</strong>. Bangladesh NAPA states that the durati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainy seas<strong>on</strong> has been decreased but the<br />
total annual rainfall remains more or less same. It means that heavy rainfall is occurred within short period. This<br />
behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall mostly affects agriculture sector and other livelihood systems.<br />
It is found from rainfall data in Bogra that the annual average rainfall is 1834 mm <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> which 1024 mm rain occurs<br />
26<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
during the m<strong>on</strong>th <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> June, July and August. On the other hand annual average rainfall for Rangpur is 2270 mm <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
which 1294 mm occurs during the m<strong>on</strong>th <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> June, July and August.<br />
It is found from the analysis that number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> days without rainfall in Bogra stati<strong>on</strong> is showing an increasing trend<br />
while total annual rainfall is showing decreasing trend. It is also to be noted that the <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is not significant and<br />
relati<strong>on</strong>ship is not very str<strong>on</strong>g. It is found from the analysis that both number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> days without rainfall and annual<br />
total rainfall in Rangpur is increasing, which means more rain is occurring in short durati<strong>on</strong>. It also reflects erratic<br />
behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall. It is also to be noted that the <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is not significant and relati<strong>on</strong>ship is not very str<strong>on</strong>g.<br />
Figure 3.2 shows <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in annual rainfall and days without rainfall with their trend in Rangpur Stati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Figure 5.1 Change in Trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Annual Rainfall and Days-without Rain (Rangpur Stati<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Days without Rainfall<br />
300<br />
280<br />
260<br />
240<br />
220<br />
200<br />
180<br />
160<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
1972<br />
1973<br />
1975<br />
1976<br />
1977<br />
1978<br />
1979<br />
5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario<br />
General Circulati<strong>on</strong> Model (GCM) and Providing Regi<strong>on</strong>al Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) have been run to<br />
develop future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios for Bangladesh. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> GCM is a global scale model where PRECIS is a<br />
regi<strong>on</strong>al scale model. Both models output indicate a steady increase in temperatures al<strong>on</strong>g with increased trend<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> summer m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> precipitati<strong>on</strong> with higher level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> inter seas<strong>on</strong>al variability. Global Circulati<strong>on</strong> Model (GCM)<br />
predicts an average temperature increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1.0ºC by 2030, 1.4ºC by 2050 and 2.4ºC by 2100. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> results also<br />
revealed somewhat more warming during the winter m<strong>on</strong>ths than during the summer. GCM also estimates that<br />
precipitati<strong>on</strong> will increase between 6 to 12% during m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> m<strong>on</strong>ths (June, July and August) in 2030 and 2100<br />
respectively while small decreases in the winter m<strong>on</strong>ths (December, January and February) also predicts.<br />
However, value <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> standard deviati<strong>on</strong> from mean suggests that <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s are not statistically significant (Agrawala<br />
et al., 2003).<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> PREICS model result shows that temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall vary over space and<br />
time. Value <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> some m<strong>on</strong>ths is much higher than the seas<strong>on</strong> or annual average. Annual average <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> maximum<br />
temperature show an increasing trend but shows that increase over time will decline while minimum<br />
temperature shows gradual increase over time. Projecti<strong>on</strong> shows that rainfall in m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> and post-m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong><br />
seas<strong>on</strong>s will increase while rainfall in the dry seas<strong>on</strong> will remain closer to historical amount. Rainfall in prem<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong><br />
shows erratic nature. It predicts that rainfall will increase about 4, 2.3 and 6.7 percent in 2030, 2050 and<br />
2070 respectively in reference to the observed baseline period 1961-1990 (BUET, 2008). Table 5.1 shows summary<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
1980<br />
y = 0.4483x + 247.86<br />
R 2 = 0.0282<br />
y = 12.565x + 2067.6<br />
R 2 = 0.041<br />
1982<br />
1983<br />
1984<br />
1985<br />
1986<br />
1987<br />
1988<br />
1989<br />
1990<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
Days without Rain Annual Total<br />
Linear (Annual Total) Linear (Days without Rain)<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
4000<br />
3500<br />
3000<br />
2500<br />
2000<br />
1500<br />
1000<br />
500<br />
Rainfall in mm<br />
27
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenario generated by using GCM and PRECIS models while Table 5.2 shows <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenario <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different seas<strong>on</strong>s and geographical regi<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country.<br />
Table 5.1 Climate Change Scenario for Bangladesh<br />
Model Year<br />
Source: MoEF, 2005, BUET, 2008 Note: * JJAS<br />
Table 5.2 Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different seas<strong>on</strong>s and geographical regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country<br />
Source: BUET, 2008<br />
28<br />
Temperature<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> (˚C) Mean<br />
(standard deviati<strong>on</strong>)<br />
GCM 2030 1.0 1.1<br />
PRECIS<br />
2030<br />
(Max)<br />
Precipitati<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> (%) Mean<br />
(standard deviati<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA<br />
0.3- 0.02<br />
0.8 5 -2 6<br />
1.3*<br />
2030<br />
(Min) 1.18 0.65 1.78*<br />
4 -8.7 3.8<br />
GCM 2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 -5 8<br />
PRECIS<br />
Rainfall<br />
Change (%)<br />
Maximum<br />
Temperature<br />
Change (C)<br />
Minimum<br />
Temperature<br />
Change (C)<br />
2050<br />
(Max) 0.2 0.07 0.89*<br />
2050<br />
(Min)<br />
1.24 0.59 1.65*<br />
2.3 -4.7 3.0<br />
Sea<br />
Level<br />
Rise<br />
(cm)<br />
DJF MAM<br />
2030<br />
JJAS ON Ann<br />
NE -9.6 9.0 4.2 24.6 7.0<br />
SE -5.3 3.3 -3.3 14.3 2.3<br />
NW -17.9 2.0 27.0 4.6 3.9<br />
SW -3.6 -2.9 -5.5 19.8 2.0<br />
BD -8.7 4.1 3.8 16.6 4.0<br />
NE 0.22 -0.05 -0.26 -0.33 -0.10<br />
SE 0.10 0.56 0.70 -0.59 0.30<br />
NW -0.31 0.03 0.16 -0.26 -0.06<br />
SW -012 0.09 0.30 -0.90 -0.0 6<br />
BD -0.03 0.16 0.23 -0.52 0.02<br />
NE 0.20 0.69 0.48 0.13 0.40<br />
SE 0.27 0.41 0.78 -0.46 0.35<br />
NW 0.06 0.42 0.69 0.20 0.38<br />
SW 0.01 0.40 0.62 0.33 0.36<br />
BD 0.13 0.48 0.64 0.05 0.37<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
14<br />
32
5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salinity Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Change in the sea level at local level depends <strong>on</strong> several factors and therefore future sea level rise projected in<br />
the assessment report <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Intergovernmental Panel <strong>on</strong> Climate Change (IPCC) will not be uniform all over<br />
world. One <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the critical factors related to Bangladesh coast is vertical land movement (subsidence/uplift).<br />
Seas<strong>on</strong>al variati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> also depends <strong>on</strong> freshwater flow in the river system and cycl<strong>on</strong>ic storm<br />
surges.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> SAARC Meteorological Research Council (SMRC) carried out a study <strong>on</strong> recent relative sea level rise in the<br />
Bangladesh coast. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study has used 22 years historical tidal data <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the three coastal stati<strong>on</strong>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study<br />
revealed that the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sea level rise during the last 22 years is many fold higher than the mean rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> global<br />
sea level rise over 100 years, which showed the important effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the regi<strong>on</strong>al tect<strong>on</strong>ic subsidence. Variati<strong>on</strong><br />
am<strong>on</strong>g the stati<strong>on</strong>s was also found. Table 5.3 represents the trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> tidal level in three costal stati<strong>on</strong>s.<br />
Table 5.3 Trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> tidal surge in three coastal stati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
Tidal Stati<strong>on</strong> Regi<strong>on</strong> Latitude (N) L<strong>on</strong>gitude (E) Datum (m) Trend (mm/year)<br />
Hir<strong>on</strong> Point Western 21 3.784<br />
˚48’ 89˚28’ Char Changa Central 22 ˚ 08’<br />
Cox’s Bazar Eastern<br />
Source: SMRC, No. 3<br />
A2<br />
(High Emissi<strong>on</strong> Scenario)<br />
High<br />
Low<br />
B1<br />
(High Emissi<strong>on</strong> Scenario)<br />
High<br />
Low<br />
21 ˚ 26’ 91 ˚ 59’<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
4.0<br />
91 4.996<br />
˚06’ 6.0<br />
Sea Level Rise (cm)<br />
2020 2050 2080<br />
6 27 62<br />
- 5 9<br />
5 23 48<br />
- 8 15<br />
4.836 7.8<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> IPCC 3rd Assessment report estimated that the global rise in sea level from 1990 to 2100 would be between 9<br />
and 88 cm. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Third Assessment Report has also projected global sea level rise for the year 2020, 2050 and 2080<br />
using different emissi<strong>on</strong> scenarios. Future projecti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Global Sea Level Rise is given below.<br />
Table 5.4 Sea Level Change under different Emissi<strong>on</strong> Scenarios<br />
Recent study result revealed that about 13% more area (469,000 ha) will be inundated in m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> due to 62 cm<br />
sea level rise for high emissi<strong>on</strong> scenario A2 in additi<strong>on</strong> to the inundated area in base c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> most<br />
vulnerable areas are the areas without polders like Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Barisal, Jhalakati, Bagerhat, Narail. Due to<br />
increased rainfall in additi<strong>on</strong> to 62cm sea level rise, the inundated area will be increased and about 16% (551,500<br />
ha) more area will be inundated in the year 2080. On the c<strong>on</strong>trary, in the dry seas<strong>on</strong> due to 62cm sea level rise<br />
about 364,200 ha (10%) more area will be inundated (inundati<strong>on</strong> more than 30cm) for A2 scenario in the year<br />
2080. However, 15cm sea level rise has insignificant impact <strong>on</strong> inundati<strong>on</strong> in dry seas<strong>on</strong>.<br />
It is important to note that analyzing the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sea level rise in the coastal areas need to incorporate<br />
dynamic nature <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> its morphology and formati<strong>on</strong> process. Bangladesh is a dynamic delta and its landmass is still<br />
growing by gradual depositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sediment. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> average sediment accumulati<strong>on</strong> rate for the last few hundred<br />
29
years in the coastal areas <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh is 5-6 mm a year. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, while sea level rises 7 mm/year and the land<br />
rises 5-6 mm/year. From the above figures it may appear that the relative sea level rise in the coastal areas <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Bangladesh is 1-2 mm/year but significant implicati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the sea level rise is losing the productive land which has<br />
formed over time.<br />
Salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> in surface water is highly seas<strong>on</strong>al in Bangladesh. Salinity and its seas<strong>on</strong>al variati<strong>on</strong> are<br />
dominant factor for coastal echo-system, fisheries and agriculture. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, any <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s <strong>on</strong> present spatial and<br />
temporal variati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> salinity will affect the biophysical system <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coastal area. Distributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> salinity level and<br />
landward intrusi<strong>on</strong> in the rivers and surface water for the base c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> has been assessed using the southwest<br />
regi<strong>on</strong> model and Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bengal model for dry and m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong>. For the base year 2005, it is found that in<br />
m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> (June to September), the saline water is fully flushed out <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Meghna Estuary, but in the western<br />
part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the lower delta it is still saline due to scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water flow from upstream. It is found that 5 ppt<br />
isohaline (line <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> equal salinity level) intrude more than 70 km landward in the western part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Sundarbans,<br />
through the lean flowing Jamuna-Malancha-Raimangal river system, whereas comparatively higher freshwater<br />
flow through Pussur-Sibsa river system pushes the 5 ppt saline fr<strong>on</strong>t more downward and keeps it at the estuary<br />
mouth. Similarly, the Baleswar-Bishkhali river systems with higher m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong>al freshwater flow from the Padma-<br />
Lower Meghna, keeps this south central regi<strong>on</strong> almost saline free during m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong>. During dry seas<strong>on</strong> (December<br />
to March) deep landward intrusi<strong>on</strong> occurs through various inlets in the western part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coastal z<strong>on</strong>e and through<br />
Meghna Estuary.<br />
Salinity will intrude more landward specially during dry seas<strong>on</strong> due to sea level rise. C<strong>on</strong>sequently brackish water<br />
area would increase and it is seen that sea level rise <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 27 cm causes 6% increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> brackish water area<br />
compared to base c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>. About an additi<strong>on</strong>al area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 327,700 ha would become high saline water z<strong>on</strong>e (>5<br />
ppt) during dry seas<strong>on</strong> due to 60 cm sea level rise. In the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> about 6% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sweet water areas (276,700 ha)<br />
will be lost. Impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 15cm sea level rise <strong>on</strong> salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> under low emissi<strong>on</strong> scenario B1 in the year 2080 is<br />
insignificant.<br />
Table 5.5 Changes in fresh and brackish water area [Ha] in dry and m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong><br />
Scenario Dry Seas<strong>on</strong> M<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> Se as<strong>on</strong><br />
Fresh water Brackish water Change Fresh water Brackish water Change<br />
area (1 ppt) (%) area (1 ppt) (%)<br />
Base 2,562,500 2,152,000 3779600 9403<br />
A2, 27cm<br />
[2050]<br />
2273300 2441200 3665400 10508 114200<br />
A2, 62cm<br />
[2080]<br />
2135700 2578800 426800 3502800 12111 276700<br />
30<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
5.4 Extreme Climatic Events<br />
Natural disaster is a regular<br />
phenomen<strong>on</strong> in Bangladesh. Key<br />
natural disasters are riverine and<br />
flash flood, tropical cycl<strong>on</strong>es,<br />
tornados, and droughts due to its<br />
unique geographical locati<strong>on</strong><br />
(Himalaya to the north and Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Bengal to the south). It is reported<br />
that between 1991 and 2000, 93<br />
major disasters occurred in<br />
Bangladesh, resulting in nearly<br />
200,000 deaths and causing US $<br />
5.9 billi<strong>on</strong> in damages with high<br />
losses in agriculture and<br />
infrastructure (CCC, 2007). Since<br />
then, the country is experiencing<br />
extreme climatic events<br />
frequently. It is revealed from the<br />
disaster records <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> last three<br />
decades that frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural<br />
disasters has increased over time.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows that<br />
frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood and tornado<br />
has increased in last two decades.<br />
Table 5.6 Frequency Table <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Hazards<br />
Decades<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> events<br />
Flood Cycl<strong>on</strong>e Tornado Drought<br />
80s 1 7 2 3<br />
90s 3 4 1 3<br />
00s 9 7 6 1<br />
01s 6<br />
1 5 0<br />
Total 19<br />
19 14 7<br />
Source: BWDB (2007), CEGIS & SMRC<br />
31
5.4.1 Changes in Flood Frequency<br />
Flood is a regular natural disaster occurring in Bangladesh and thus entailing huge damage to the ec<strong>on</strong>omy.<br />
Four main types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural floods occur in Bangladesh:<br />
Table 5.7 Different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood occurring in Bangladesh<br />
Type <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Flood<br />
Flash Flood<br />
Rainwater flood/<br />
M<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> Flood<br />
River Flood<br />
Coastal Flood<br />
32<br />
Causes <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> occurrence<br />
Run-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f durin gexcepti<strong>on</strong>aly heavy<br />
rainfall occurring in neighboring<br />
upland areas<br />
Heavy rainfall occurring over flood<br />
planeand terrace areas within<br />
Bangladesh.<br />
Snow melt in high Himalayans,<br />
Heavy m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> rainfalls over the<br />
Himalayans, the Asam Hills,<br />
theTripura Hills and the Uppar<br />
Brahmaputra and Ganges flood<br />
plains<br />
In case <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> important cycl<strong>on</strong>es the<br />
entire coastal beltis flooded.<br />
Coastal areas are also subjected to<br />
tidal flooding<br />
Source: Ahmed, 2006<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> projected increase in rainfall during<br />
m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> would be reflected in the flow<br />
regimes <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the rivers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh. Increased<br />
flooding and drainage c<strong>on</strong>gesti<strong>on</strong>, therefore,<br />
are the expected c<strong>on</strong>sequences from a warmer<br />
and wetter c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> increased run<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f<br />
would also aggravate the existing drainage<br />
problem and create new <strong>on</strong>es. Bangladeshi<br />
rivers, especially the major <strong>on</strong>es, have lost<br />
gradient during the past several decades.<br />
C<strong>on</strong>sequently their c<strong>on</strong>veyance capacity has<br />
diminished significantly. Furthermore, snow<br />
melting in the Himalayan regi<strong>on</strong> al<strong>on</strong>g with<br />
simultaneous rise in sea level will eventually<br />
result in prol<strong>on</strong>ged and devastating flood.<br />
From historical point <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> view, it has been<br />
observed that the frequency, intensity and<br />
magnitude <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood have increased as well.<br />
Since 1954, 48 small, medium and big floods<br />
have struck Bangladesh. Am<strong>on</strong>g those, 7 events<br />
were severe where more than 30% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> land area<br />
was inundated. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows<br />
flooded area from 1954 to 2007.<br />
Time/durati<strong>on</strong> Tentative affected area<br />
Pre m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> m<strong>on</strong>ths <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> April and<br />
May<br />
April-May, June-August<br />
April-May andJune-September<br />
Tidal flood occurs from Juneto<br />
September<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> foot <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Northern and<br />
eastern hills <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh<br />
In thesouth-western part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
country<br />
Catchment areas<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> three<br />
majorrivers.<br />
South western coastal areas.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Source: BWDB, 2007 (Annual flood report, 2007)<br />
In the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> return period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different scale<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood, it is also found that a flood event<br />
which inundates 37% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> land usually occurs<br />
<strong>on</strong>ce in every 10 years. But it is found that<br />
number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> floods inundated 37% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> land<br />
occurred 5 times in last 30 years and 3 times in<br />
last 10 years. Similarly, flood which inundates<br />
60% area suppose to occur <strong>on</strong>ce in every 50<br />
years but in last 30 years such flood has<br />
occurred twice and in last 10 years has<br />
occurred <strong>on</strong>ce. So, it is quite evident that<br />
frequency and intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood has increased<br />
significantly in last 30 years.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
33
Table 5.9 Return period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood according to affected area<br />
Flooded Area<br />
Return period (Years)<br />
2 5 10 20 25 50 100<br />
Area affected % 20 30 37 43 52 60 70<br />
Last 30 years 5 3 2 2<br />
Last 10 years 3 2 1 1<br />
5.4.2 Changes in Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and Storm Surges<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bengal is a known breeding ground <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> tropical cycl<strong>on</strong>e and hit the coastal area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh during<br />
pre-m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> (April and May) and post-m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> (October and November) seas<strong>on</strong>s. One <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the reas<strong>on</strong>s why it<br />
hits Bangladesh coast <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten is the c<strong>on</strong>ical shape <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bengal. Over the last 50 years, 15 severe cycl<strong>on</strong>es<br />
with wind speed ranging from 140 to 225 km/hr have hit the coastal area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> which 7 hit in prem<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong><br />
and rest in the post-m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Tropical cycl<strong>on</strong>es are the most talked about climatic events in the subc<strong>on</strong>tinent especially in Bangladesh and<br />
India. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> coastal area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh is more vulnerable to cycl<strong>on</strong>es in the Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bengal Regi<strong>on</strong>s. In this study,<br />
frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>ic disturbance formed over the Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bengal has been compiled for the period 1901 to 2007.<br />
Table 5.10 Historical record <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Cycl<strong>on</strong>e formed in Bay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bengal<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
Year Maximum Wind<br />
Speed (Kph)<br />
Nov. 1901 62-88<br />
Nov. 1904 62-88<br />
Oct. 1905 62-88<br />
34<br />
Surge Height (m) Causalities<br />
Oct. 1909 89-117 172<br />
Dec. 1909 89-117<br />
Apr. 1911 89-117<br />
Sep. 1919 (Bengal Cycl<strong>on</strong>e) 120 3500<br />
Apr. 1922 89-117<br />
May. 1923 89-117 6<br />
May. 1926 89-117 2700<br />
May. 1941 89-117 3.03 -3.64 5000<br />
Oct. 1947 89-117 500<br />
Oct. 1960 (8 -10) 129 6 9450<br />
Oct. 1960 (30 -31) 193 6.6 5149<br />
May. 1961 (5 -9) 161 5 11,468<br />
May. 1961 (27 -30) 161 6.5<br />
Oct. 1962 93<br />
May. 1963 193 6 22000<br />
Oct. 1963 81<br />
May. 1965 161 3.7 19279<br />
Dec. 1965 184 3.6 3000<br />
Oct. 1966 139 6.67 850<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
Year Maximum Wind<br />
Speed (Kph)<br />
Oc t. 1970 163<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Surge Height (m) Causalities<br />
Nov. 1970 224 10 500000<br />
Dec. 1973 111 4.55 1000<br />
Nov. 1974 161 5.1 20<br />
Jun. 1975 83 5<br />
May. 1977 120<br />
Dec. 1981 167 4.55 72<br />
Oct. 1983 122 43<br />
Nov. 1983 135 1.5 300<br />
May. 1985 154 4.55 10000<br />
Nov. 1986 110 0.61 60<br />
Nov. 1988 161 4.4 568 3<br />
Apr. 1991 225 7.6 1,38,882<br />
Jun. 1991 110 2.5 300<br />
Nov. 1992 50<br />
Apr. 1994 210 4.85 184<br />
Nov. 1995 210 650<br />
May. 1997 230 4.55 155<br />
Sep. 1997 150 3.05 67<br />
May. 1998 150 2.44<br />
Nov. 1998 90 2.44<br />
Nov. 2007 220 4.5 3000<br />
Source: SMRC and Wikipedia.<br />
Table 4.10 shows that 15 most damaging cycl<strong>on</strong>es have struck Bangladesh very badly. Am<strong>on</strong>g those 4 were<br />
catastrophic and killer cycl<strong>on</strong>es which struck in 1919, 1970, 1991 and 2007. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> damaging cycl<strong>on</strong>ic events have<br />
been identified depending <strong>on</strong> wind speed and surge height. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>es which have wind speed <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 120 kph<br />
and surge height <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 4.5 m have taken into account.<br />
Since cycl<strong>on</strong>es have potential to cause severe damage to agriculture, district wise frequency and affected<br />
household al<strong>on</strong>g with their vulnerability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> being affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>e have been presented in the following<br />
table.<br />
5.4.3 Changes in Drought<br />
Bangladesh experiences major droughts <strong>on</strong>ce in 5 years. Droughts at local scale are much more frequent and<br />
affect part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the crop life cycle. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> western part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is vulnerable to drought during pre-m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong><br />
period.<br />
35
During the last 50 years, Bangladesh suffered about 20 drought c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> in northwestern<br />
Bangladesh in recent decades had led to a shortfall <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 3.5 milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>s in the 1990s. If<br />
other losses, such as, to other crops (all rabi crops, sugarcane, tobacco, wheat<br />
http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/HT/S_0582.htm, etc) as well as to perennial agricultural resources, such as,<br />
bamboo, betel nut, fruits like litchi, mango, jackfruit, banana etc. are c<strong>on</strong>sidered, the loss will be substantially<br />
much higher.<br />
Current Severe drought can affect yield in 30% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country, reducing nati<strong>on</strong>al producti<strong>on</strong> by 10%. 2030<br />
Temperature increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 0.5˚C and annual rainfall reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 5% could reduce run<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f into the Ganges,<br />
Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers by 14%, 11% and 8%, respectively. With 12% reducti<strong>on</strong> in run<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f, the populati<strong>on</strong><br />
living in severe drought-pr<strong>on</strong>e areas increases from 4% to 9% under moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Table 5.11<br />
provides the exiting drought affected areas under different drought classes.<br />
Table 5.11 Exiting Drought Affected Areas under Different Drought Classes<br />
Drought Class Rabi Pre-Kharif Kharif<br />
Very Severe 0.446 0.403 0.344<br />
Severe 1.71 1.15 0.74<br />
Moderate 2.95 4.76 3.17<br />
Slight 4.21 4.09 2.90<br />
No Drought 3.17 2.09 0.68<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-T. Aman 4.71<br />
Future droughts may increase the probability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a dry year, meaning a year with a certain percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> belowaverage<br />
rainfall, by 4.4 times by 2050. Temperature increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1.3˚C and precipitati<strong>on</strong> decrease <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 9% would reduce<br />
run<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f into the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rivers by 27%, 21% and 15%, respectively. If run<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f drops 22% in<br />
kharif seas<strong>on</strong>, drought-pr<strong>on</strong>e areas would expand to include north-western to central, western and south-western<br />
regi<strong>on</strong>s (GoB, 2005)<br />
36<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Table 5.12 Drought Affected Area<br />
1791<br />
Year % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> affected area<br />
1951 31.63%<br />
1957 46.54%<br />
1958 37.47%<br />
1961 22.39%<br />
1966 18.42%<br />
1972 42.48%<br />
1979 42.04%<br />
1865 Drought proceeding famine occurred in Dhaka.<br />
1866 Severe drought in Bogra. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the district was hit hard and the price went<br />
up three times its normal level.<br />
1872 Drought in Sundarbans. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall was deficient and in several lots the crops sufferedto a<br />
great extent.<br />
1874 Bogra was affected and the crop failure was much greater. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall was extremely low.<br />
1951 Severe drought in northwest Bangladesh and substantially reduced rice producti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
1973 One <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the severest in the present century and was resp<strong>on</strong>sible for the 1974 famine in<br />
northern Bangladesh.<br />
1975 This drought affected 47% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the entire country and caused sufferings to about 53% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
total populati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
1978 -79 Severe drought causing widespread damage to crops. Reduced rice producti<strong>on</strong> by about 2<br />
milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>s and directly affected about 42% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the cultivated land and 44% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
populati<strong>on</strong>. It was <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the severest in recent times.<br />
1981 Severe drought adversely affected crop producti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
1982 Caused a total loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice producti<strong>on</strong> amounting to about 53,000 t<strong>on</strong>s. In the same year<br />
flood damaged about 36,000 t<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice.<br />
1989 Most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the rivers in NW Bangladesh dried up and in several districts, such as Naoga<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Nawabganj, Nilpahamari and Thakurga<strong>on</strong>; dust syndrome occurred for a prol<strong>on</strong>ged period<br />
due to drying up the topsoil.<br />
1994 -95 This drought was followed by that <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1995-96, caused immense damage to crops, especially<br />
in the case <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice and jute the main crops <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> NW Bangladesh. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se are followed by<br />
bamboo-clumps, a major cash earning crop <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> many farmers in the regi<strong>on</strong>. In the recent<br />
times, this was most persistent drought in Bangladesh.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Table 5.13 Frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Drough<br />
District Frequency<br />
Panchagar<br />
Thakurga<strong>on</strong><br />
Jessore 1<br />
Naoga<strong>on</strong> 5<br />
Nawabganj 5<br />
Rajshahi 1<br />
Natore 1<br />
Nilpahamari 1<br />
Joypurhat 3<br />
Dinajpur 3<br />
Rangpur 3<br />
Pabna 1<br />
Bogra 1<br />
Table 5.14 Showing historical significance <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> droughts<br />
Drought affected Jessore district. Priceshad risen twice and three times <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> their usual levels.<br />
1<br />
1<br />
37
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Bangladesh: Impacts and<br />
Vulnerabilities to<br />
Climate Change
6.1 C<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerability<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> above secti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the report provides <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios and its associated c<strong>on</strong>texts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerability to<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and sea level rise for Bangladesh. It revealed that vulnerability c<strong>on</strong>text varies across the country.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>texts may be characterised by geographical regi<strong>on</strong> with predominant ecosystem. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> present<br />
vulnerability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is related to flood (riverine and flash flood), drought, salinity, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm<br />
surges, and river bank and soil erosi<strong>on</strong> which will be aggravated by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and sea level rise. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> northwestern<br />
regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh is pr<strong>on</strong>e to seas<strong>on</strong>al drought where extreme temperature and erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
rainfall are key issues related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong>, sea level rise, and cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges are<br />
key issues for the low lying coastal area. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> floodplain ecosystem spread over mostly in the central regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
country which will face frequent and intense flood due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> north-eastern and hilly areas <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the country will face more devastating flash flood. A summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> related<br />
vulnerability c<strong>on</strong>text by major geographical regi<strong>on</strong>s and ecosystems are given below.<br />
Types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Geographic al Areas<br />
with Dominant Ecosystems<br />
Floodplain (freshwater aquatic<br />
ecosystem, fisheries, Transplanted<br />
Aman)<br />
Drought Pr<strong>on</strong>e (dryness, moisture<br />
stressed c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Coastal Z<strong>on</strong>e<br />
Haor Basin (tect<strong>on</strong>ically<br />
depressed area)<br />
Hilly Regi<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Table 6.1 Summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerability C<strong>on</strong>text<br />
Climate Change Vulnerability C<strong>on</strong>text and Characteristics<br />
Changes in Flooding Characteristics<br />
Coverage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> inundated area in m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> seas<strong>on</strong> will increase<br />
(more flood vulnerable area)<br />
Changes in depth and durati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> inundati<strong>on</strong> (depth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water will be higher<br />
and periodwill be l<strong>on</strong>ger)<br />
Changes in recessi<strong>on</strong> period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood water (water logging)<br />
Changes in flood frequency (more frequent and intense flood)<br />
Changes in Drought Characteristics<br />
Changes in drought intensity (more area under severe drought)<br />
Changes <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought pr<strong>on</strong>e area (expansi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> area)<br />
Changes in timing <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought (erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall and temperature)<br />
Changes in Coastal Characteristics<br />
Expansi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> salinized areas<br />
Increase in salinity intensity<br />
Increase drainage c<strong>on</strong>gesti<strong>on</strong> and coastal flooding<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges<br />
Changes in Haor Basin Characteristics<br />
Changes in timing <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flash flood<br />
Changes in recessi<strong>on</strong> period<br />
Changes in distributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall and intensity<br />
Changes in erosi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> top soil<br />
Increase possibility <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> landslide<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> above menti<strong>on</strong>ed vulnerability c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is likely to affect agriculture sector including crops,<br />
livestock and fisheries; freshwater for drinking and agricultural purpose; and rural infrastructure including water<br />
supply and sanitati<strong>on</strong>, and rural roads. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different<br />
sectors.<br />
41
Table 6.2 Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Different Sectors<br />
Physical Vulnerability C<strong>on</strong>text<br />
Extreme<br />
Temperature<br />
42<br />
Sea Level Rise<br />
Coastal<br />
Inundati<strong>on</strong><br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood<br />
Drought River<br />
Flood<br />
Flash<br />
Flood<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
and<br />
Storm<br />
Surges<br />
+++ ++ +++ +++ + ++ +++ -<br />
Erosi<strong>on</strong><br />
and<br />
Accreti<strong>on</strong><br />
Sectoral<br />
Vulnerability<br />
C<strong>on</strong>text<br />
Crop<br />
Agriculture<br />
++ + + ++ ++ + + - Fisheries<br />
++ ++ +++ - - + +++ - Livestock<br />
+ ++ - ++ + + +++ Infrastructure<br />
++ +++ ++ - ++ + + - Industries<br />
++ +++ +++ - ++ - + - Biodiversity<br />
+++ + +++ - ++ - ++ - Health<br />
- - - - - - +++ +++<br />
Human<br />
Settlement<br />
++ + - - + - + - Energy<br />
Source: NAPA<br />
6.2 Impacts <strong>on</strong> Crop Agriculture<br />
Agricultural crop <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh is influenced by seas<strong>on</strong>al characteristics and different variables <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> such<br />
as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc. It is also <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten c<strong>on</strong>strained by different disasters such as floods,<br />
droughts, soil and water salinity, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges. Several studies indicated that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> is changing and<br />
becoming more unpredictable every year in Bangladesh. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re is a str<strong>on</strong>g possibility that moisture c<strong>on</strong>tent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the topsoil in the north-western regi<strong>on</strong> would decrease substantially resulting from decrease in winter<br />
precipitati<strong>on</strong> and higher evapo-transpirati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Degradati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> productive land including quality and physical loss are key c<strong>on</strong>cerns for coastal agriculture due<br />
to salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and sea level rise. Drainage c<strong>on</strong>gesti<strong>on</strong> and water logging is very likely in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong><br />
as a result <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> combined effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> higher sea water levels, subsidence, sedimentati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> estuary branches, higher<br />
riverbed levels and reduced sedimentati<strong>on</strong> in flood-protected areas.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the<br />
coastal belt, droughts in the northwest and southwest, and drainage c<strong>on</strong>gesti<strong>on</strong>s are likely to reduce crop yields<br />
and crop producti<strong>on</strong>. Decisi<strong>on</strong> Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model result shows that<br />
yield reducti<strong>on</strong> will vary by types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crops and their growing seas<strong>on</strong>. IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice producti<strong>on</strong><br />
in Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent.<br />
6.2.1 Existing Impacts – Percepti<strong>on</strong><br />
Result <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the expert interviews revealed that the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> including variability and extremes <strong>on</strong><br />
crops are multi-dimensi<strong>on</strong>al. Nature <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability and extreme, locati<strong>on</strong> and seas<strong>on</strong> are important determinant <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> main crop, rice, is severely affected by extreme particularly flood, drought, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm<br />
surges. Other factors are salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> and rainfall.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop yield by gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and total or partial damage due to extreme events are key <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
facing by crop agriculture sector. In additi<strong>on</strong> to direct <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> related disaster, other key factors <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
yield reducti<strong>on</strong> are degradati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil health by sand depositi<strong>on</strong> and erosi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cultivable land. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following<br />
table provides several stress factors identified by the experts and <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g> yield reducti<strong>on</strong>. It is also to be noted<br />
that most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the crops are affected at flowering to grain-filling stage and thus <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> vary by agro-ecological<br />
z<strong>on</strong>e.<br />
Table 6.3 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Present Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts related to Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Crop Agriculture in the<br />
Flood and Flash Flood Affected Areas<br />
Major Changes and Impacts<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Crop loss/yield<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong> (%)<br />
• Soil quality degradati<strong>on</strong> by sand depositi<strong>on</strong> due to bank erosi<strong>on</strong> 10<br />
Improve soil health by depositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> silts and SOM 20<br />
Changes in flooding characteristics (increased frequency, severity, durati<strong>on</strong><br />
and extent)<br />
Changes in crops/cropping patterns with new varieties 15 (incr ease)<br />
Damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Aus, Aman by riverine flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> 30<br />
Damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boro Rice by flash flood in basin areas 40<br />
Delay sowing <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> pulses and vegetables 30<br />
Increase waterlogged area 20<br />
River bank erosi<strong>on</strong> causing decrease <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cultivable land 20<br />
Increasing incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> pests and diseases 10<br />
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008<br />
Table 6.4 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Present Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts related to Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Crop Agriculture in the<br />
Drought Affected Areas<br />
Major Changes and Impacts<br />
Crop loss/yield<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong> (%)<br />
Decreasing soil moisture that affect crop producti<strong>on</strong> systems 20<br />
Changes in drought characteristics (time/durati<strong>on</strong>, severity and extent) 20<br />
Degradati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil physical properties due to depleti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> SOM and<br />
decrease <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> microbial populati<strong>on</strong><br />
20<br />
Increasing soil-related c<strong>on</strong>straints (viz.swelling/cracking clays,<br />
P-fixati<strong>on</strong>, micro-nutrient deficiencies <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Zn, B and Mo)<br />
25<br />
Cultivable paddy land is transferring to high value crops especially in<br />
Barind areas<br />
15<br />
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with new varieties 10 (increase)<br />
Aman crop is affected by drought 30<br />
30<br />
43
Major Changes and Impacts<br />
Crop loss/yield<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong> (%)<br />
Wheat is affected by drought and shorter winter period 20<br />
Rabicrops/vegetables, pulses being affected due to moisture stress<br />
and fogginess<br />
30<br />
Fruit dropping due to moisture stress, B deficiency and fogginess 30<br />
Increasing incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> pests and diseases<br />
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008<br />
Table 6.5 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Present Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts related to Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Crop Agriculture in<br />
the Coast Areas<br />
44<br />
Major Changes and Impacts<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
15<br />
Crop loss/yield<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong> (%)<br />
Increasing soil salinity with extent and severity 20<br />
Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparati<strong>on</strong> 15<br />
Degradati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil physical/chemical properties due to prol<strong>on</strong>ged<br />
25<br />
water stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> S and Zn<br />
wetland rice cultivati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Increasing soil-related c<strong>on</strong>straints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soil<br />
30<br />
wetness) that create problems in land preparati<strong>on</strong><br />
Late planting <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rabi crops due to delaying in recessi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood water<br />
20<br />
and soil wetness<br />
Damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to<br />
30<br />
moisture stress and salinity<br />
Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in<br />
Fallow: 50%<br />
Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II seas<strong>on</strong><br />
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase)<br />
Rainfed aus crop is affected by drought and salinity<br />
Boro and wheat is affected by salinity<br />
C<strong>on</strong>versi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop land into shrimp culture<br />
Increasing incidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> pests and diseases<br />
Decreasing income source <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor in coastal areas<br />
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008<br />
Experts have also expressed their views <strong>on</strong> changing cropping pattern. Changes in characteristics such as<br />
untimely and prol<strong>on</strong>ged flooding, erratic rainfall, temperature variati<strong>on</strong>, prol<strong>on</strong>ged drought, <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the<br />
length <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> winter and summer seas<strong>on</strong>s have identified as <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related drivers. Key experts informed<br />
that the length <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> winter seas<strong>on</strong> is decreasing whereas summer is increasing. Present cropping seas<strong>on</strong>s are also<br />
facing uneven distributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> which is leading seas<strong>on</strong>al adjustment in the<br />
cropping pattern and in most cases these are temporary <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s. Moreover, crop land is transferring to<br />
horticulture especially in the drought pr<strong>on</strong>e area. This reduces rice crop producti<strong>on</strong> c<strong>on</strong>siderably at local level<br />
but significant implicati<strong>on</strong> is limiting rural livelihood opportunities in crop agriculture.<br />
Damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop is another key effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability and extremes. Flood (all types) and cycl<strong>on</strong>e damage<br />
standing crops severely. Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agriculture Extensi<strong>on</strong> (DAE) under the Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agriculture has<br />
30<br />
20<br />
30<br />
20
estimated that 1.39, 1.26 and 14.48 lakhs hectares <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop land was affected by flood in 2005, 2006 and 2007,<br />
respectively. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr has fully destroyed 300,940 ha <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Transplanted Aman and partially damaged 700,533 ha<br />
(Draft report <strong>on</strong> cycl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr, CDMP). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows yearly damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice variety by flood and<br />
cycl<strong>on</strong>e.<br />
Table 6.6 Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong> by different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> hazards<br />
Year<br />
Figure 6.1 Year wise occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood with % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> area inundated and damage to crops.<br />
Crop Damage (MT)<br />
1400000<br />
1200000<br />
1000000<br />
800000<br />
600000<br />
400000<br />
200000<br />
0<br />
Source: CEGIS, BBS and DAE 2007.<br />
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004<br />
Year<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Loss in Producti<strong>on</strong> (M. T<strong>on</strong>s)<br />
Flood (all types) Cycl<strong>on</strong>e/Storm/Hailstorm<br />
Aus<br />
Aman Boro Aus Aman Boro<br />
1993 71,835 115,31 3 - 141 - 80,522<br />
1994 31,565 3,535 139,08 0 - - -<br />
1995 176,970 541,99 5 - - - -<br />
1996 12,558 8,677 - - - 25,012<br />
1997 30,117 6,240 - - 4,501 -<br />
1998 274,875 927,35 7 23,558 - - -<br />
1999 26,510 242,60 5 - - - -<br />
2000 - 197,97 0 - 1,572 - 317,460<br />
2001 27,540 34,870 - - - 18,440<br />
2002 52,030 131,89 0 - - - 247,760<br />
2003 177,880 43,880 - - 15,610<br />
2004 150,590 954,50 0 - - - 497,220<br />
Source: BBS<br />
Usually adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> soil quality and its subsequent effects <strong>on</strong> crop are not recognized.<br />
Experts interviewed informed that temperature variati<strong>on</strong> could increase biotic activity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the soil and increase<br />
deficiency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil nutrient and likely to reduce crop producti<strong>on</strong>. It has also revealed that flood has both positive<br />
and negative impact <strong>on</strong> soil. In the case <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> land covered by sand which degrades the quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil while silt<br />
depositi<strong>on</strong> improves soil quality which has positive impact <strong>on</strong> crop producti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
It is evident that the higher the magnitude <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood, the higher the damages <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop agriculture. It is found that<br />
flood <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1998 and 2004 cause significant damage to crops. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following figure shows relati<strong>on</strong>ship between area<br />
inundated and damage to crop.<br />
C rop D amage Area inundated<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
Area Inundated (%)<br />
45
6.2.2 Future Impacts – Percepti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>probable</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> crop agriculture will be aggravated in future since the frequency and<br />
intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shocks and erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall and temperature will increase, stated by the key experts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
agriculture sector. Historical data also states that frequency and intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e will increase which<br />
will affect crop agriculture at a greater scale. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> major effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will include <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in<br />
cropping pattern and crop variety, reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coverage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Rabi crops, <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boro seas<strong>on</strong>, extent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> standing crops. T. Aman, wheat and pulses will suffer more due to increase severity and area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
drought. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> experts from SRDI informed that the high land crop will be affected by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> very<br />
severely, medium high land severely and medium lowland & low land will be un<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>d. It is also informed that<br />
most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the climatic events will degrade the quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> resp<strong>on</strong>dent said that the more developed soil, the<br />
poorer quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil. Frequent flood, erratic rainfall and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> will increase biotic activity,<br />
decompositi<strong>on</strong>, porosity and permeability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil which will affect crop agriculture. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> will vary in<br />
different ecological z<strong>on</strong>es. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following tables show the percepti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>,<br />
variability and extremes in different ecological z<strong>on</strong>es <strong>on</strong> crop agriculture:<br />
Table 6.7 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Future Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Flood pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Major <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Crop loss/yield<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong> (%)<br />
Depositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> SOM will be increased in low-lying areas 10<br />
Minerals and coarse materials will be increased in char lands with areas and<br />
10<br />
extent<br />
Cropping pattern, cropping seas<strong>on</strong> and variety <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crops will be <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>d 10<br />
Coverage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rabi crops will be decreased 15<br />
Prol<strong>on</strong>ged flood/Late flood will delay rabi crops 10<br />
Increase intensity/severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flash floods will hamper Boro cultivati<strong>on</strong> in Haor<br />
50<br />
basins<br />
Overall cropyield will be decreased due to degradati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil quality and<br />
15<br />
climatic hazards<br />
Table 6.8 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Present Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Drought Pr<strong>on</strong>e Areas<br />
46<br />
Major <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Soil reserve nutrients will be decreased due to increased mineralizati<strong>on</strong>,<br />
depleti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> SOM and intensive cultivati<strong>on</strong><br />
Dry-land crop varieties will be <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>d<br />
T. Aman will highly be affected by drought and moisture stress<br />
Chickpea, tomato will be affected at higher temperature<br />
Flowering and grain-filling stage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> wheat and T. Aman will be affected seriously by<br />
temperature variati<strong>on</strong> and decreased winter period and moisture stress<br />
Sterility <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> wheat, pulses and oilseeds will be increased due to increased fogginess<br />
Seedlings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boro will be hampered due to cold wave<br />
Cold wave will affect mustard, chickpea, lentil, and other rabi crops at the stage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
flowering and grain filling and cause yield reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
Disease <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> potato will be increased due to cold wave and fogginess<br />
Crop loss/Yield<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
20<br />
30<br />
TA-30, wheat 20<br />
and mustard 10<br />
30<br />
30<br />
10<br />
20<br />
20
Table 6.9 Percepti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Present Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Coastal Areas<br />
Major Changes and Impacts<br />
Crop loss/Yield<br />
reducti<strong>on</strong> (%)<br />
Soil salinitywill be increased with extent and severity 20<br />
Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparati<strong>on</strong><br />
Degradati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> soil physical/chemical properties due to prol<strong>on</strong>ged water<br />
10<br />
stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> S and Znwetland rice<br />
cultivati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
20<br />
Increasing soil-related c<strong>on</strong>straints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soilwetness)<br />
that create problems in land preparati<strong>on</strong><br />
Late planting <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rabi crops due to delaying in recessi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood water<br />
and soil wetness<br />
Damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to moisture<br />
stress and salinity<br />
20<br />
Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in Rabi,<br />
Kharif-I and Kharif-II seas<strong>on</strong><br />
Fallow:50%<br />
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase)<br />
Rainfed aus crop will be affected bydrought and salinity 20<br />
Boro and wheat will be affected by salinity 20<br />
C<strong>on</strong>versi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop land into shrimp culture 30<br />
Increasing incidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> pests and diseases<br />
Decreasing income source <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor in coastal areas<br />
20<br />
6.2.3 Future Impacts – Model Result<br />
Various studies indicate that a temperature rise <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1 to 20C in combinati<strong>on</strong> with lower solar radiati<strong>on</strong> causes<br />
sterility in rice spikelets. High temperature was found to reduce yields <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HYVs <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> aus, aman and boro rice in all<br />
study locati<strong>on</strong>s and in all seas<strong>on</strong>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> effect was particularly evident at a rise <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> temperature by 40C. Climate<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s, especially in temperature, humidity and radiati<strong>on</strong>, have great effects <strong>on</strong> the incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> insect pests,<br />
diseases and microorganisms. A <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 10C <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s the virulence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> some races <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rust infecting wheat.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop in Bangladesh is c<strong>on</strong>strained by too much water during the wet seas<strong>on</strong> and too little<br />
during the dry seas<strong>on</strong>. Presently total irrigated area is 4.4 milli<strong>on</strong> ha which is more than 50 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the potentially<br />
irrigable area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 7.12 milli<strong>on</strong> ha cultivated area. This area is being irrigated through surface and ground water.<br />
Irrigati<strong>on</strong> coverage through Shallow tubewells (STWs) during the dry period has grown very fast following a<br />
policy <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> privatizati<strong>on</strong> and deregulati<strong>on</strong>. As a result, the groundwater table in Bangladesh is declining at a rapid<br />
rate causing STWs to become n<strong>on</strong>-operati<strong>on</strong>al in many parts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country during dry period. Lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> surface<br />
water during the dry seas<strong>on</strong> limits the functi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Low Lift Pumps.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> GFDL model predicted about 17 % decline in overall rice producti<strong>on</strong> and as high as 61 per cent decline in<br />
wheat producti<strong>on</strong> compared to the baseline situati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1990 under 4 degree <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in temperature. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
highest impact would be <strong>on</strong> wheat followed by rice (aus variety). This translates to a reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 4.5 milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>s<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice at the present level (2002) <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong>. Of the three varieties <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice grown in Bangladesh, the aus rice<br />
(grown during the summer, m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> period under rain-fed c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s) seems to be the most vulnerable. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
other model, Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM) predicted a significant fall in food-grain producti<strong>on</strong>. It<br />
should be noted, however, that this scenario was based <strong>on</strong> projecting existing cropping patterns into the futurewhich<br />
is not necessarily what will happen, as there are signs <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> significant <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s already taking place in<br />
cropping patterns.<br />
It was noticed that temperature increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 4 o C would have severe impact <strong>on</strong> food-grain producti<strong>on</strong>, especially<br />
for wheat producti<strong>on</strong>. On the other hand, carb<strong>on</strong>-dioxide fertilizati<strong>on</strong> would facilitate food-grain producti<strong>on</strong>. A<br />
rise in temperature would cause significant decrease in producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 28 % and 68 % for rice and wheat<br />
respectively. Moreover, doubling <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> atmospheric c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> CO2 in combinati<strong>on</strong> with a similar rise in<br />
temperature would result in an overall 20 % rise in rice producti<strong>on</strong> and 31 % decline in wheat producti<strong>on</strong>. It was<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
20<br />
20<br />
47
found that boro rice would enjoy good harvest under severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenario with doubling <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
atmospheric c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> CO (Karim et al., 1999).<br />
2<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> apparent increase in yield <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> boro (dry seas<strong>on</strong> rice crop generally grown under irrigated c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s and<br />
includes high yielding varieties) and other crops might be c<strong>on</strong>strained by moisture stress. A 60 % moisture stress<br />
<strong>on</strong> top <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> other effects might cause as high as 32 % decline in boro yield, instead <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> having an overall 20 % net<br />
increase. It is feared that moisture stress would be more intense during the dry seas<strong>on</strong>, which might force the<br />
Bangladeshi farmers to reduce the area for boro cultivati<strong>on</strong>. Shortfall in foodgrain producti<strong>on</strong> would severely<br />
threaten food security <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the <strong>poverty</strong>-ridden country.<br />
Under a severe (4oC temperature rise) <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenario the potential shortfall in rice producti<strong>on</strong> could<br />
exceed 30 % from the trend, while that for wheat and potato could be as high as 50 % and 70 % respectively<br />
(Karim, 1996). Under a moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenario the crop loss due to salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> could be about<br />
0.2 Mt (Habibullah et al., 1998). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong> due to such effects may be relatively higher compared to<br />
that under floods. However, the loss incurred in other sectors could be much higher in case <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> floods than the<br />
direct climatic <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> low-flow <strong>on</strong> agricultural vulnerability is c<strong>on</strong>sidered to be much less intense<br />
compared to other effects. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> ultimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> food grain producti<strong>on</strong> would increase import <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> food<br />
which will require spending hard currency.<br />
6.3 Fisheries<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re is limited quantitative assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> fisheries but it is anticipated that<br />
aquaculture will be affected adversely due to increased flooding and lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> availability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water in the dry seas<strong>on</strong>.<br />
While producti<strong>on</strong> may increase in open water fisheries as a result <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> flood. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, total producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
freshwater fishes may remain same. It is also expected that compositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coastal fisheries may <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> overtime<br />
as a result <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coastal inundati<strong>on</strong> and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong>. It is also anticipated that livestock will face fodder crisis in<br />
the coastal and heat related stress in the north-west regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country.<br />
6.3.1 Existing Impacts – Percepti<strong>on</strong><br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will have both negative and positive <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> fisheries. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> positive impact is possible increase<br />
in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> would not be remarkable in nati<strong>on</strong>al c<strong>on</strong>text<br />
rather it would affect investment at individual level. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> key experts’ interviews and c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshops<br />
revealed that flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e affect culture fisheries severely while affect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> other shocks such as drought,<br />
salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong>, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. Flood causes fish loss<br />
damaging p<strong>on</strong>d dykes, hatcheries, nurseries and embankments. It also affects fish producti<strong>on</strong> through disease<br />
outbreaks and p<strong>on</strong>d siltati<strong>on</strong>. Fish producti<strong>on</strong> may also be hampered by affecting breeding ground <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish due to<br />
siltati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish habitat. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se affect livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fishermen and fish farmers.<br />
Coastal aquaculture and fisheries are severely affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e causes destructi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
fishers’ lives and properties (boats, nets etc.). It damages fish landing and marketing centres, aquaculture<br />
infrastructure including embankments, sluice gate, hatcheries, and nurseries. In the drought pr<strong>on</strong>e areas, fish<br />
producti<strong>on</strong> decreases due to drying up <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> inland water bodies or limited availability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water. It also affects fish<br />
stock, growth and breeding <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fishes. Moreover, drought causes disease outbreaks, reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fisheries seas<strong>on</strong>s<br />
and declinati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> broods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural SIS.<br />
Salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> affects freshwater fisheries by decreasing inland water bodies. It decreases income and nutriti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rural poor but has positive <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> coastal shrimp culture. Erratic rainfall adversely affect natural spawning<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish including major carp spawning in Halda river and Kaptai lake and ultimately fish producti<strong>on</strong> and fishers.<br />
Cold wave and fogginess also adversely affect fisheries. Cold wave affects breeding performance and growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
fish species which reduces fish producti<strong>on</strong>. Besides, fogginess causes fish mortality in aquaculture p<strong>on</strong>d and small<br />
water bodies due to depleti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dissolve oxygen.<br />
6.3.2 Future Impacts<br />
It is likely that fisheries sector will face the similar problem related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> including variability and<br />
48<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
extreme. Key difference will be frequency, intensity and scale <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the problem. Similar to the present situati<strong>on</strong>, flood<br />
will have both positive and negative <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> in future. Flood will affect aquaculture infrastructure, p<strong>on</strong>d siltati<strong>on</strong>,<br />
habitat <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish breeding at larger scale while increased area under inundati<strong>on</strong> and l<strong>on</strong>g durati<strong>on</strong> is likely to increase<br />
open water fisheries. Drought will affect fish growth, breeding & producti<strong>on</strong>, increase disease vulnerability, reduce<br />
fishing seas<strong>on</strong> and reduce broods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural SIS. Probable <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e are almost similar to existing <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
but severity will be increased which will affect <strong>poverty</strong> at wider scale. Salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and erratic rainfall will also<br />
affect fish producti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
6.4 Livestock<br />
Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> livestock is also limited. However, it is suggested that extreme<br />
temperature and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related natural disasters would affect livestock significantly. High temperature<br />
would affect livestock in a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ways: causes great discomfort as in the case <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> human, decreases feed intake<br />
and alters nutrient metabolism leading to high loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> energy and the combined effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> discomfort and nutrient<br />
metabolism reduces their productivity, resulting in financial loss for the farmers. Apart from extreme temperature,<br />
natural disasters such as cycl<strong>on</strong>e and tidal surge as menti<strong>on</strong>ed above, also cause immense loss and sufferings to<br />
livestock through destructi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> forage crops as well as housing. Deaths <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock due to cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm<br />
surge are huge in the coastal area.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshops and key experts’ interviews state that livestock sector is badly affected by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
variability and shocks. Flood, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and sea level rise have major <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> livestock. Flood causes loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
livestock, damage pasturelands which increase fodder scarcity and diseases <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge<br />
causes huge loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> animal lives and shelters, damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fodder, poor health and disease outbreak. Ultimately it<br />
results reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock populati<strong>on</strong>. Sea level rise and associated coastal inundati<strong>on</strong> leads to inundati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
pastureland and increase animal feed scarcity and increase incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> animal diseases. It also reduces animal<br />
rearing coverage. Drought hampered the producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock, increase management cost through incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
diseases and increase food scarcity which results poor health <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock. Besides, salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong>, temperature<br />
variati<strong>on</strong> and heat wave cause harm to livestock affecting fodder land and health <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poultry and other<br />
domesticated animals.<br />
It is difficult to have percepti<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, variability and extremes <strong>on</strong> livestock because<br />
there is no baseline informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> these exist. But it is easily perceived that death and producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock will<br />
decrease c<strong>on</strong>siderably with increasing intensity and frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shocks. Producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livelihood will also<br />
hampered due to decrease <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> grazing lands, increase death <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock etc. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se will lead to decrease health<br />
status affecting meat and milk producti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
6.5 Forestry<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges al<strong>on</strong>g with salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> are the major shocks for forestry sector, stated by the key<br />
experts. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e damages forest and scale <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> damage depends <strong>on</strong> severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> supper<br />
cycl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr destructed <strong>on</strong>e-quarter <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Sundarbans and almost 100% afforested trees al<strong>on</strong>g its path. It has been<br />
observed that all the trees at road sides as well as homesteads <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> about 10 to 15 years old have been destructed by<br />
the Sidr. It means, 10-15 years <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> investments <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> individuals <strong>on</strong> homestead forestry as well as afforestati<strong>on</strong> have<br />
been simply diminished within <strong>on</strong>ly a few hours. Salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> has also adverse effects <strong>on</strong> freshwater forest<br />
ecosystem. It affects adversely the flora and fauna compositi<strong>on</strong>. Flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> moderately affect<br />
forest and cause loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> biodiversity, mortality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood susceptible trees and plants and destroy both aquatic and<br />
terrestrial ecosystems.<br />
In the north-western part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country, drought badly affects trees and plants due to moisture stress <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the soil.<br />
Branches and leaves <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> trees are dried up due to lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> moisture and excessive evapo-transpirati<strong>on</strong>. Besides, erratic<br />
rainfall, heat wave, and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> cause harm to germinati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> seeds and transfer <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> species from <strong>on</strong>e<br />
place to another. Temperature variati<strong>on</strong> brings <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in species <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural hill forest.<br />
A large number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> people depend <strong>on</strong> forest resources particularly <strong>on</strong> the natural forest and forest product. Forestry<br />
sector will be affected by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> induced shocks and <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s at higher scale. Flood will cause loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> trees and<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
49
plants, biodiversity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the affected forest and forest based industries and infrastructure. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge<br />
will simply destroy forest as well as homestead forest. Drought will affect forest causing drying up <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> branches and<br />
leaves and soil moisture stress. Flora and fauna compositi<strong>on</strong> will be severely affected by sea level rise and salinity<br />
intrusi<strong>on</strong>. Temperature variati<strong>on</strong> and erratic rainfall will <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> species compositi<strong>on</strong> and c<strong>on</strong>straint germinati<strong>on</strong><br />
which will reduce forest producti<strong>on</strong> c<strong>on</strong>siderably.<br />
6.6 Water Supply and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>texts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> stimuli including variability and extremes<br />
vary from regi<strong>on</strong> to regi<strong>on</strong> within the country. It is likely that the gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> phenomena such as temperature<br />
rise and erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall will lead to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity<br />
intrusi<strong>on</strong> will deteriorate water quality in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events particularly<br />
cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge will damage water supply and sanitati<strong>on</strong> infrastructure particularly in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Increase in summer temperature will increase water demand in the urban area for drinking and bathing as well as<br />
industrial water demand for cooling system. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> competiti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> demand may aggravate the current c<strong>on</strong>flict<br />
between domestic and industrial water supplies in the urban areas. Situati<strong>on</strong> will be different in the rural area<br />
where availability and quality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rivers and artesian wells and p<strong>on</strong>d water in the dry seas<strong>on</strong> will be deteriorated.<br />
Shortage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> safe drinking water is likely to become more pr<strong>on</strong>ounced, especially in the coastal belt and drought<br />
pr<strong>on</strong>e areas in the north-west <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country. It is also likely that saline water boundary will be pushed more<br />
towards inland and vast areas will face severe water crisis in future. People now having access to fresh water will no<br />
l<strong>on</strong>ger enjoy this service. Due to cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge, huge volumes <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> saline water will come to the land area<br />
and c<strong>on</strong>taminate freshwater p<strong>on</strong>ds. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se will severely damage the existing drinking water sources. For instance,<br />
p<strong>on</strong>ds for the P<strong>on</strong>d Sand Filters (PSF) and dug wells may be flooded with saline water. It may also c<strong>on</strong>taminate<br />
hand tube wells and other sources as well.<br />
It is likely that unavailability and low quality will accentuate the prevailing drinking water crisis in the dry seas<strong>on</strong>.<br />
This will impose hardship <strong>on</strong> women and children, who are resp<strong>on</strong>sible for collecting drinking water for their<br />
families. Saline drinking water may also result in increase health hazards, especially for pregnant women. It appears<br />
that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is likely to adversely affect women more than men.<br />
Climate is c<strong>on</strong>trolled mainly by the combined effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> atmosphere and hydrosphere. Naturally water is affected<br />
by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, variability and extremes. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> affects water sector in different ways. In the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong>,<br />
excessive rainfall causes flood and water logging which results in scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking water, water borne diseases’<br />
outbreak, damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crops, infrastructure (embankments, roads, educati<strong>on</strong>al and social institutes), reduces income<br />
sources and livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s, and death <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> human beings and other animals. In the dry seas<strong>on</strong>, lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall<br />
causes scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water for drinking, household activities and irrigati<strong>on</strong> as well as diseases like dehydrati<strong>on</strong>, scabies<br />
and other infectious diseases. In the coastal area, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> affect fresh water sources severely.<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e damages water infrastructure, increases c<strong>on</strong>taminati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water sources with saline water, causes<br />
water polluti<strong>on</strong> which results in scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking water and water for irrigati<strong>on</strong>. Besides this, back water effects<br />
and coastal inundati<strong>on</strong> reduces sources <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water and thus food producti<strong>on</strong> and other livelihoods are also<br />
affected.<br />
Water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> will face severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in future. Scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking and irrigati<strong>on</strong> water<br />
will be the major issue which will affect lives and livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor. Excessive water in the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> will<br />
damage settlements and infrastructure, disease outbreaks and even death at higher scale compared to the existing<br />
situati<strong>on</strong>, whereas lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainfall in the m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> will cause scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water for drinking and sanitati<strong>on</strong>. Drought<br />
will also create scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water for irrigati<strong>on</strong> which will affect crop producti<strong>on</strong> and decrease livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the poor. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and salinity in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong> will increase damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water sources and agricultural<br />
land which will also affect the livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor. Besides that, water borne diseases will affect human health<br />
severely.<br />
50<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
6.7 Industry and Infrastructure<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, variability and extremes have large <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Industry and Infrastructure. Flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e are<br />
the two major climatic events which affect this sector severely. Flood has great <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> small and medium<br />
industries, including handloom. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> key experts informed that handloom industries in Pabna, Sirajganj and Bogra<br />
are severely affected by flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> almost every year. Investment by handloom owners is lost.<br />
Loom workers lose their income for two to three m<strong>on</strong>ths and <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten migrate to greater cities for carrying their<br />
livelihoods. This creates huge pressure <strong>on</strong> cities’ utility services, health, sanitati<strong>on</strong> and sewerage systems. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
women workers involved in handloom become fully unemployed during flood. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>y cannot either earn or<br />
migrate to other places. Other industries also suffer due to disrupti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> roads and communicati<strong>on</strong> systems,<br />
power supply networks etc. Drought also affects industrial producti<strong>on</strong> causing health stress <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> worker, seas<strong>on</strong>al<br />
migrati<strong>on</strong> due to scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water and decreases in the number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> workers in the drought seas<strong>on</strong> etc.<br />
In the coastal area, industry and infrastructure are mainly affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
events, especially cycl<strong>on</strong>e have both direct and indirect <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> industry. It destroys buildings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> industries<br />
and machineries in <strong>on</strong>e hand; <strong>on</strong> the other hand, it destroys roads and other communicati<strong>on</strong> networks, power<br />
supply networks, water supply networks, and causes health degradati<strong>on</strong> and death <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> workers. Moreover, salinity<br />
has large scale <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> industry. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Khulna Paper Mill was closed due to increase water salinity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the river. It<br />
also affects machineries and materials <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> industries and causes loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> large investments. Erratic rainfall causes<br />
urban drainage c<strong>on</strong>gesti<strong>on</strong> which also affects producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> industries. Tourism industries are affected by coastal<br />
erosi<strong>on</strong>, coastal inundati<strong>on</strong>, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge, scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water availability in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong> etc.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following two tables provide damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> infrastructure due to major cycl<strong>on</strong>es and floods<br />
which struck Bangladesh.<br />
Table 6.10 Damage to Infrastructure by Different Major Cycl<strong>on</strong>es<br />
Damage<br />
Event<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
1991 Cycl<strong>on</strong>e 2007 Cycl<strong>on</strong>e ‘Sidr’ 2008 Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
‘Rashmi’<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected District 19 30 17<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Most Affected District 12<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected Upazila 102 200 27<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected<br />
Uni<strong>on</strong>/Pourashava/Municipality<br />
9 (Municipality)<br />
1,950<br />
(Uni<strong>on</strong>/Paurashava)<br />
94 (Uni<strong>on</strong>)<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected Family 20,64,026 20,64,026 92,701<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected People 1,07,98,275 89,23,259 3,21,831<br />
Fully damaged crops 1,33,272acr. 7,42,826 acr. 775 acr.<br />
Partially damaged crops 7,91,621 acr 17,30,116 acr 18,022 acr.<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fully damaged household 8,19,608 5,63,877 4,360<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> partially damaged household 8,82,750 9,55,065 12,404<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> death people 1,38,882 3,363 7<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Injured People 1,39,058 55,282 --<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Livestock death 10,61,029<br />
17,78,507 ----<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fully damaged educati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
3,865<br />
4,231<br />
----<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> partiall ydamaged educati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
5,801<br />
12,723<br />
Fullydamaged roads 764 miles (earthen) 1,714 km<br />
Partially damaged roads 6,361 km 6,361 km 212 km<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> damaged bridges/culverts, 496 1,687 -----<br />
Embankment 707 miles 1,875 km 28 km<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> damaged trees ----- 40,65,316 -----<br />
Source: DMB, 2008<br />
107<br />
51
Table 6.11 Damage to Infrastructure by Recent Floods<br />
Damage Event 2004 Flood 2007 Flood 2008 Flood<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected District<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected Upazila<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected Pourashava,<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected Uni<strong>on</strong><br />
Total Affected Area<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected Family<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affected People's<br />
Fully damaged crops<br />
Partially damaged crops<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fully damaged household<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> partially damaged household<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> death people<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Injured People<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Livestock death<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fully damaged educati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> partially damaged educati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
Fully damaged roads<br />
Partially damaged roads<br />
No. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> damaged bridges/culverts,<br />
Embankment (Fully Damaged)<br />
Embankment (Partially Damaged)<br />
Source: DMB, 2008 and Relief Web, 2008<br />
52<br />
39 39 22<br />
265 254 86<br />
--- 67 06<br />
2,492 1965 481<br />
21,420 Sq. km 32000 3,394.13<br />
74,68,128 2264933 2,25,009<br />
3,63,37,944 1,05,72,145<br />
9,74,461<br />
16,05,958 acr. 7,55,047 acr. 21,62 8 acr.<br />
10,38,176 acr 7,62,653 acr 3,26,71 7 acr.<br />
1,55,182 62,96 5 11,44 8<br />
1,20,45,484 8,81,92 2 75,45 3<br />
277 3,363 7<br />
55,28 2 --<br />
4,973 871 ----<br />
1,155 510 49<br />
12,893 7,040 405<br />
6,641 km 2,869 km 58 km<br />
26,884 km 1,714 km 1,912.1 km<br />
5,478 km 7,164 km 97 km<br />
2,215 km<br />
87 km 8.55 km<br />
731 km 99.35 km<br />
6.8 Health<br />
Many scientists already anticipated that more frequent and more intense and severe weather events will result in<br />
increased deaths, injuries and disease in developed countries like Canada, but the biggest impact will be felt in<br />
low-lying, heavily populated areas such as Bangladesh, particularly when coupled with sea level rise attendant<br />
up<strong>on</strong> global warming (Canadian Associati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Physicians for the Envir<strong>on</strong>ment, 2004). According to IPCC (2001),<br />
the global warming would increase the vector borne and water borne diseases in the tropics. Best-estimate<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenario indicates that the incidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue may increase threefold in Ind<strong>on</strong>esia (ADB,<br />
1994b in IPCC, 1997). In fact, the increasing trend and variati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue occurrences are c<strong>on</strong>sistent with the<br />
corresp<strong>on</strong>ding trend and variati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> temperature, which infers that the anticipated future warming in<br />
Bangladesh might increase the dengue occurrence (NAPA Study note).<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
6.8.1 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Health- Percepti<strong>on</strong><br />
Human health suffers from different climatic variability and shocks in different ways. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> experts informed that<br />
health is affected, especially during and after shocks like flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e. Slow <strong>on</strong>sets <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> climatic system have<br />
also <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> health. Flood affects sources <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> system through c<strong>on</strong>taminati<strong>on</strong><br />
which lead to out break <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea, cholera, skin diseases including scabies, drowning, snake bite and even<br />
death. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e, sea level rise and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> cause outbreaks <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea, cholera and other water borne<br />
diseases, use <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> saline water causes hypertensi<strong>on</strong>, increase blood pressure, corrosive effects due to salt in air,<br />
scabies and other skin diseases. Besides that, drought, erratic rainfall and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> increase vector<br />
borne diseases, heat stroke, malnutriti<strong>on</strong>, fever etc. Cold wave creates respiratory problem, especially that <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
children and the old.<br />
It is already proven that different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diseases breakout during and after flood. In future, these <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> will<br />
be more frequent and severe since intensity and frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood will increase. Similarly, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm<br />
surge will affect human health and lives severely with the increasing intensity and frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e. Besides<br />
this, temperature variati<strong>on</strong>, erratic rainfall will increase incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vector borne diseases like dengue, malaria.<br />
Lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fresh water in drought pr<strong>on</strong>e and coastal areas will increase malnutriti<strong>on</strong>, extreme <strong>poverty</strong>, bring <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s<br />
in occupati<strong>on</strong>, increase migrati<strong>on</strong> etc. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows the level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> health and subsequently<br />
<strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
Table 6.12 Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Health<br />
Key issues<br />
Health<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts<br />
Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth<br />
Present Future Present Future Present Future<br />
Flood, Erratic Rainfall Moderate Severe Low Moderate Very low<br />
Low<br />
Drought<br />
Low Moderate<br />
Very<br />
low<br />
Low Very low<br />
Low<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e Moderate Severe Low Moderate Low Moderate<br />
Coastal Inundati<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Salinity<br />
Low Moderate Low Moderate Very low Low<br />
Source: Workshop Exercise<br />
6.8.2 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Health- observed <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s<br />
Climate induced natural hazards are major c<strong>on</strong>cerns in addressing health <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>. In a massive flood in 1988, 30<br />
milli<strong>on</strong> people were affected in the country where 5.37 milli<strong>on</strong> were affected by diarrhoea. In 1998, more than 30<br />
milli<strong>on</strong> people were affected by flood but the incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea has been decreased by more than 50%<br />
compared to 1988. This was mainly due to extensive measures taken by the government. In 90s, the government<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh has undertaken different effective measures to prevent diarrhoea. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> major programmes are<br />
Nati<strong>on</strong>al Campaign <strong>on</strong> Health Awareness, Oral Rehydrati<strong>on</strong>, Increased Water Supply and Sanitati<strong>on</strong> coverage etc.<br />
Besides this, the government has developed a Nati<strong>on</strong>al Policy for Water Supply and Sanitati<strong>on</strong> in 1998 to<br />
promote use <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> safe water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> practices. Moreover, some nati<strong>on</strong>al NGOs like BRAC, Proshika, NGO<br />
Forum for Drinking Water Supply and Sanitati<strong>on</strong> etc. have taken massive awareness programmes <strong>on</strong> health and<br />
awareness. But from 2000 to 2007, the incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea shows an increasing trend, though most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
programmes are still operating. This is because <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> increased frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood. In 2007, the incidences were<br />
highest in the last six years may be due to flood and recurrent floods. However, the incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> diarrhoea is high<br />
in all the flood year. This indicates that the incidences may increase with increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood events. It may be noted<br />
again and again that the poor always lose more but recover less in any extreme event.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
53
Table 6.13 Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Diarrhea during major flood events<br />
Malaria is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the major public health problems in Bangladesh. Out <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 64 districts, 13 bordering districts in the<br />
east and northeast facing the Indian states <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya and part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Myanmar bel<strong>on</strong>g to the<br />
high-risk malaria z<strong>on</strong>e. A total <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 14.7 milli<strong>on</strong> populati<strong>on</strong>s are at high-risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> malaria in the country, although<br />
there is sporadic incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> malaria in other parts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country as well. An estimated 1.0 milli<strong>on</strong> clinical cases<br />
are treated every year while 61,495 laboratories c<strong>on</strong>firmed cases were reported during 2002 from routine<br />
surveillance. During 2002, a total <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 598 deaths were reported. Plasmodium falciparum is the predominant<br />
infecti<strong>on</strong> (61-71%) and An. dirus is the principal vector (WHO, 2004). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> available literature says that Malaria’s<br />
sensitivity to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> is illustrated in desert and highland fringe areas where rainfall and temperature,<br />
respectively are critical parameters for disease transmissi<strong>on</strong> (WHO, WMO, UNEP, 2002). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> malaria<br />
in 1997 in Chittag<strong>on</strong>g, Khagrachari, Bandarban, Cox’s Bazar area critically supports this hypothesis (HPSR, 2000).<br />
Temper ature ( C)<br />
Dengue is another major <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitive disease in Bangladesh. It usually spreads over tropical and sub-tropical<br />
regi<strong>on</strong>. According to Koopman et al. (1991), an increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 3–4˚C in average temperature may double the<br />
reproducti<strong>on</strong> rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the dengue virus. It is also evident that erratic rainfall and m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> flooding are str<strong>on</strong>gly<br />
correlated for breeding Aedes mosquito, especially in urban, fringe and high elevated areas (source:<br />
www.geocities.com). Breaking News <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Dengue Website, July 2001 states that Intermittent rains and reactivati<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> aedes larvae from the unclean breeding sites are believed to be the reas<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> outbreak <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue. It is<br />
reported that 3 billi<strong>on</strong> world populati<strong>on</strong> are at risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue fever and 60% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> them are located in the 10 southeast<br />
asian countries. Bangladesh is the 7th country in south-east asia with DHF reported in 2000. In 2001, it was<br />
reported that 60,000 people had become the carrier <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue (Breaking News, Dengue Website, 9 August 2009).<br />
Children are the most sufferers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue epidemic. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows the historical outbreak <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue<br />
fever in Bangladesh.<br />
54<br />
32. 50<br />
32. 00<br />
31. 50<br />
31. 00<br />
30. 50<br />
30. 00<br />
29. 50<br />
29. 00<br />
28. 50<br />
28. 00<br />
Major Flood<br />
Trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> average maximum temperature and incidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> malaria<br />
(1988-2008)<br />
1988<br />
1989<br />
1990<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
Year<br />
Affected Populati<strong>on</strong> (in<br />
milli<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Figure 6.2: Relati<strong>on</strong>ship between Temperature and Malarial Incidences<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
90000<br />
80000<br />
70000<br />
60000<br />
50000<br />
40000<br />
30000<br />
20000<br />
10000<br />
0<br />
Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Diarrhea (in<br />
milli<strong>on</strong>)<br />
1988 30 5.37<br />
1998 30.6 2.06<br />
2000 3 1.56<br />
2004 36 2.33<br />
2007 10 2.34<br />
2008 1 1.9<br />
Incidences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
ma laria<br />
Ma x t emp<br />
Ma laria<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history in Bangladesh<br />
Period Descripti<strong>on</strong><br />
1964 First documented out break <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue in Bangladesh<br />
1977 – 78 Few cases <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> DF were found in a Clandestine Survey by IEDCR<br />
1982 – 83 Out <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2456 blood samples taken, 278 found DEN- 1<br />
1984 – 86 21 samples collected, 3 found positive by HI Test.<br />
Up to 1986 Major cities were free to DHF.<br />
1997 Cross secti<strong>on</strong>al serological survey at CMCH tested 255-paired sera in which 35<br />
were positive cases<br />
1999 Few death cases were reported in DHF<br />
2000 Currently an epidemic has been reported in this country<br />
2001 Epidemic has been reported in this country.<br />
2002 Epidemic has been reported in this country.<br />
Source: NAPA study note<br />
In Bangladesh, out break <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dengue was first documented in 1964 but epidemic was reported in 2000. Dengue<br />
remained almost unknown to the country due to lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> knowledge, technology, research, skilled pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essi<strong>on</strong>als<br />
etc. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> table 6.15 shows that death from dengue has decreased over the period. This is mainly due to increase in<br />
knowledge, awareness, research and measures taken by different public and private sectors.<br />
Table 6.15: Dengue Incidences in Bangladesh<br />
Source: www.geocities.com<br />
Year Dengue Case Death CFR%<br />
2000 5,550/10,000 93/100 1.7%/1.0%<br />
2001 2,430/25,000 44/100 1.8%/0.4%<br />
2002 6,132/60,000 58/100 0.9%/0.2%<br />
2003 886 10 1.1<br />
2004 2000 7 0.4<br />
2005 500 + up to Oct - -<br />
Total 17,498/95,000 212/300 1.2%/0.3%<br />
6.9 Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood has multi dimensi<strong>on</strong>al <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong>. Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> slow <strong>on</strong>set or <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> are<br />
not remarkable but the rapid <strong>on</strong>sets like flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e have severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong>. It damages school<br />
buildings and houses, displaces children and detaches them from schools, loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> study materials, use <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> schools<br />
as shelters in the n<strong>on</strong>-flooded areas hamper c<strong>on</strong>tinuati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> educati<strong>on</strong>, and increases the rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dropout. In a<br />
sense, educati<strong>on</strong> is totally disrupted during flood in the affected areas. Cycl<strong>on</strong>e is another devastating shock for<br />
educati<strong>on</strong>. It damages educati<strong>on</strong> infrastructure, increases <strong>poverty</strong>, increases drop out rate etc. Drought has also<br />
negative <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong>. Children <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the drought affected areas are engaged in income generating<br />
activities and suffer from malnutriti<strong>on</strong>. Scarcity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drinking and other water resources also lead to low attendance<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the children in their schools.<br />
Key expert interviews show that flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e will have very severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> by damaging<br />
school buildings and study materials, displacing children from <strong>on</strong>e place to another and so <strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> will<br />
affect the poor very severely because the rich could migrate and settle in the cities but the poor do not have that<br />
capacity. Salinity will affect educati<strong>on</strong> in a different way, i.e. opportunity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shrimp farming and fry collecti<strong>on</strong> will<br />
encourage the poor children to be engaged in these activities to carry <strong>on</strong> with their livelihood.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
55
Key issues Probable Impacts Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Identified<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Flood<br />
School building will damage Book<br />
and other materials lost<br />
Very Severe Very Severe Very Severe<br />
Drought - - - -<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
Destructi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> infrastructure<br />
School damage Material lose<br />
Very Severe Very Severe Very Severe<br />
Coastal inundati<strong>on</strong><br />
Salinity<br />
56<br />
Table 6.16 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different disasters <strong>on</strong> Educati<strong>on</strong> Infrastructure and subsequent <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
People who are educated,<br />
richthey will migrate to better<br />
citiesor country, but the<br />
poor,uneducated and unskilled<br />
people will suffer severely<br />
Opportunity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shrimp<br />
farmingand fry collecti<strong>on</strong> has<br />
increased, but the overall<br />
situati<strong>on</strong> will be severe<br />
Very Severe Very Severe Moderate<br />
Very Severe Very Low Very Low<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Cy cl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr: A C as e Study<br />
An estimated 5,927 educati<strong>on</strong>al instituti<strong>on</strong>s were fully destroyed or partially damaged by Cycl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr, resulting<br />
in a total value <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> damage and losses <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> BDT 4.7 billi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
However, the educati<strong>on</strong> sector's needs are approximately BDT 7.8 billi<strong>on</strong> (US$ 113 milli<strong>on</strong>), due primarily to<br />
increased cost <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>structing new schools that would also serve as emergency shelters.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> highest numbers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fully destroyed primary schools are located in Barguna (230), Pirojpur (149), Patuakhali<br />
(98), Barisal (91), and Bagerhat (68). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> highest numbers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> partially destroyed primary schools are in Barisal<br />
(632), Patuakhali (550), Pirojpur (401), Jhalakathi (340), and Barguna (335). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> worst affected; both fully and<br />
partially destroyed, schools are in Barisal (723).<br />
According to the initial assessment, a total <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 9,655 educati<strong>on</strong>al instituti<strong>on</strong>s have been fully or partially destroyed<br />
in 19 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the 30 cycl<strong>on</strong>e affected districts. Table below summarizes the extent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> destructi<strong>on</strong> to Formal as well as<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-Formal Educati<strong>on</strong>al Instituti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
Primary Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Subtotal Primary Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Sec<strong>on</strong>dary Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Instituti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
Subtotal Sec<strong>on</strong>dary Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
N<strong>on</strong>-formal Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Subtotal N<strong>on</strong>-formal Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
TOTAL 2429<br />
Source: GoB, 2008<br />
Formal<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-formal<br />
Formal<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-formal<br />
Pre primary<br />
learning centers<br />
Adult Literacy<br />
centers<br />
Post literacy<br />
Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Centers<br />
Type <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Destructi<strong>on</strong><br />
Full Destructi<strong>on</strong> Partial<br />
784<br />
435<br />
1219<br />
786<br />
58<br />
844<br />
102<br />
72<br />
192<br />
366<br />
Destructi<strong>on</strong><br />
3705<br />
254<br />
3959<br />
2942<br />
83<br />
3025<br />
75<br />
In the twelve badly affected districts (namely Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Gopalg<strong>on</strong>j, Jhalakathi, Khulna,<br />
Madaripur, Patuakhalki, Priojpur, Satkhira, and Shariatpur) an estimated 4,879 registered sec<strong>on</strong>dary and higher<br />
sec<strong>on</strong>dary schools, colleges and madrashahs existed prior to the disaster. Out <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these, a total <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 3,736 (76.6<br />
percent) were either fully destroyed or partially damaged, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> which 787 (16 percent) were fully destroyed. It was<br />
found that most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the affected instituti<strong>on</strong>s were made <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> C.I. sheet ro<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ing with wooden pillar and bamboo<br />
fencing.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Educati<strong>on</strong> has decided to undertake a short-run program to resume academic activities in the<br />
cycl<strong>on</strong>e-torn instituti<strong>on</strong>s by erecting temporary structures, providing books and study materials, waiving<br />
examinati<strong>on</strong> fees and rescheduling public examinati<strong>on</strong>s. In the l<strong>on</strong>g run, the Government has planned to<br />
c<strong>on</strong>struct academic building-cum-cycl<strong>on</strong>e shelters in the cycl<strong>on</strong>e affected coastal areas.<br />
58<br />
109<br />
242<br />
7226<br />
57
Climate Change Poverty<br />
and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth
7. Relati<strong>on</strong>ship am<strong>on</strong>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong>, ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and sustainable development is<br />
multidimensi<strong>on</strong>al and complex. It is recognized in the scientific and negotiating community that <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
induced <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> will put additi<strong>on</strong>al challenges to many <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Millennium Development Goals and targets in<br />
general, and <strong>poverty</strong> and hunger, and envir<strong>on</strong>mental sustainability in particular.<br />
It is revealed from the Nati<strong>on</strong>al Adaptati<strong>on</strong> Programme <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Acti<strong>on</strong> (NAPA) <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh that different climatic<br />
elements will impact different sectors in a different scale by different geographical areas. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table<br />
shows different climatic elements and their <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> by different regi<strong>on</strong>s and their link with different strategic<br />
blocks <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty Reducti<strong>on</strong> Strategy Paper and Millennium Development Goals.<br />
Table 7.1: Climatic Elements, critical vulnerable areas and impacted sectors and Links with PRSP and MDGs<br />
Climate and<br />
Related Elements<br />
Temperature rise<br />
and drought<br />
Sea Level Riseand<br />
Salinity Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Floods<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and<br />
Storm Surge1<br />
Drainage<br />
c<strong>on</strong>gesti<strong>on</strong><br />
Critical Vulnerable<br />
Areas<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Most Impacted Sectors Links with PRSP Links with<br />
MDGs<br />
North-west Agriculture (crop, livestock,<br />
fisheries) Water<br />
Energy Health<br />
Coastal Area<br />
Island<br />
Central Regi<strong>on</strong><br />
North East Regi<strong>on</strong><br />
Char land<br />
Coastal and<br />
Marine Z<strong>on</strong>e<br />
Coastal Area<br />
Urban South<br />
West<br />
Source: Modified from NAPA Bangladesh<br />
7.1 Distributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty<br />
Agriculture (crop, fisheries,<br />
livestock) Water (water<br />
logging, drinking water,<br />
urban) Human settlement<br />
Energy Health<br />
Agriculture (crop, fisheries,<br />
livestock) Water (urban,<br />
industry) Infrastructure<br />
Human settlement Health<br />
Disaster Energy<br />
Marine Fishing Infrastructure<br />
Human settlement Life and<br />
property<br />
Water (Navigati<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Agriculture (crop)<br />
Strategic Block I, II,<br />
III, IV & V<br />
Strategic Block I, II,<br />
III, IV & V<br />
Strategic Block I, II,<br />
III, IV & V<br />
Strategic Block I, II,<br />
III, IV & V v<br />
- -<br />
Goal 1, 3 and 7<br />
Goal 1, 3 and 7<br />
Goal 1, 2, 3<br />
and 7<br />
Goal 1, 2, 3<br />
and 7<br />
Despite the recent macro ec<strong>on</strong>omic achievements, <strong>poverty</strong> is still pervasive and endemic in Bangladesh.<br />
According to the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh Bureau <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Statistics (BBS), using the most<br />
comm<strong>on</strong>place definiti<strong>on</strong>, about half <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the populati<strong>on</strong> could be c<strong>on</strong>sidered poor in the mid-1990s, while a<br />
quarter <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the populati<strong>on</strong> could be c<strong>on</strong>sidered extreme poor (WB, 1997). Am<strong>on</strong>g them, the bottom 10 percent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
the populati<strong>on</strong> are steeped in severe deprivati<strong>on</strong> so much that they require substantial transfers to keep them<br />
from starvati<strong>on</strong> and to reach a level that is c<strong>on</strong>sidered micro-credit worthy (Farashuddin, 2001).<br />
Levels <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> vary substantially across the country and str<strong>on</strong>g correlati<strong>on</strong> was found with spatial distributi<strong>on</strong><br />
61
62<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> food insecurity. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> United Nati<strong>on</strong>s World Food<br />
Programme has reported that the poorest upazilas can be<br />
found in the north-west, the coastal belt, Mymensingh,<br />
Netrak<strong>on</strong>a, Bangdarban and Rangamati districts. In terms <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
absolute numbers, districts with more than <strong>on</strong>e milli<strong>on</strong><br />
people living in extreme <strong>poverty</strong> include Sirajganj, Naoga<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Bogra, Mymensingh and Chittag<strong>on</strong>g (GOB and FAO, 2004).<br />
Given the size <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> and <strong>poverty</strong> incidence by<br />
administrative divisi<strong>on</strong>s, it shows that the largest number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
poor lives in Rajshahi followed by Dhaka, Chittag<strong>on</strong>g,<br />
Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet districts. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following Table<br />
provides informati<strong>on</strong> about density <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor by divisi<strong>on</strong>s.<br />
Recent analysis by General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> revealed that<br />
the proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor is higher compared to its proporti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> in the lagging divisi<strong>on</strong>s. On the other hand,<br />
proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor is lower compared to its proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
populati<strong>on</strong> in the forward divisi<strong>on</strong>s. In 2005, the proporti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> in Khulna divisi<strong>on</strong> was 11.68% and the<br />
proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor was 13.3 %. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong><br />
in Barisal divisi<strong>on</strong> was 6.42% whereas the proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor<br />
was 8.3%. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> was 24.08% in<br />
Rajshahi divisi<strong>on</strong> and the proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor was 30.8%. In<br />
Dhaka divisi<strong>on</strong> the proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> was 32.23%<br />
and the proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor was 25.8%. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> populati<strong>on</strong> in Chittag<strong>on</strong>g divisi<strong>on</strong> was 19.25% while<br />
the proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor was 5.4%. This distributi<strong>on</strong> holds true for all districts as well.<br />
Table 7.2: Number and Density <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poor people by Regi<strong>on</strong> 2005<br />
Re gi<strong>on</strong><br />
Square<br />
Km<br />
Area Populati<strong>on</strong> Poor<br />
% Crore %<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Poverty<br />
Incidence%<br />
Populati<strong>on</strong><br />
density/Sq. km<br />
Crore % Poor All<br />
Barisal 13297 9.01 0.89 6.42 52.0 0.46 8.3 346 669<br />
Chittag<strong>on</strong>g 33771 22.88 2.67 19.25 34.0 0.91 16.4 270 790<br />
Dhaka 31120 21.09 4.47 32.23 32.0 1.43 25.8 460 143 6<br />
Khulna 22273 15.09 1.62 11.68 45.7 0.74 13.3 332 727<br />
Rajsh ahi 34514 23.39 3.34 24.08 51.2 1.71 30.8 495 967<br />
Sylhet 12596 8.54 0.88 6.34 33.8 0.30 5.4 238 699<br />
Bangladesh 417571 100 13.87 100 40.0 5.55 100 376 940<br />
Source: BBS<br />
7.2 Intensity and Severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty<br />
Like the <strong>poverty</strong> incidence the intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong>, measured by the <strong>poverty</strong> gap, is much higher in Barisal,<br />
Rajshahi and the Khulna divisi<strong>on</strong>. Similar is the case with the severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong>, as measured by this squared<br />
<strong>poverty</strong> gap. However, <strong>on</strong>e observati<strong>on</strong> can be made with respect to incidence, intensity and severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong><br />
across Dhaka, Chittag<strong>on</strong>g and Sylhet. Although, incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> in Chittag<strong>on</strong>g is higher than that <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Dhaka<br />
and Sylhet, its intensity and severity are lower than those <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the other two divisi<strong>on</strong>s respectively. It implies that<br />
poor people in Chittag<strong>on</strong>g are better <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f than their counter parts in Sylhet and Dhaka.<br />
63
Table 7.3: Poverty Gap and Squared Poverty gap by Regi<strong>on</strong> 2005<br />
Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
7.3 Climate Change Impacts <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth<br />
Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth has been assessed based <strong>on</strong> percepti<strong>on</strong> and<br />
quantitative analysis. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> quantitative analysis has been d<strong>on</strong>e based <strong>on</strong> dependence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> household <strong>on</strong> different<br />
sectors and exposure to different climatic events and their frequency. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following secti<strong>on</strong> provides summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
findings.<br />
7.3.1 Agriculture<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> study has made an attempt to assess adverse effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, variability and extremes <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong><br />
and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth related to crop agriculture. Discussi<strong>on</strong> with experts focuses <strong>on</strong> shocks and time <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
occurrence. It has been revealed that 50% reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop producti<strong>on</strong> would increase <strong>poverty</strong> at the same<br />
percentage. Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce<br />
12% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> GDP c<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong> for that particular time. Effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e are more severe than flood. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> experts<br />
agreed that 60% damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop by a cycl<strong>on</strong>e increases <strong>poverty</strong> at the same percentage affecting their resources<br />
and livelihoods, and decreases ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty<br />
eradicati<strong>on</strong> and hunger) is badly affected and pushed backward. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that<br />
the intensity and frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> both flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e will increase in future. So, these two climatic shocks are a<br />
major challenge for Bangladesh in implementing PRSP and attaining the MDGs.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshop with the key experts suggested that <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e characteristics will<br />
affect crop agriculture very severely, which will affect <strong>poverty</strong> at the same scale. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> poor will suffer mostly<br />
because they have less capacity to resp<strong>on</strong>d to these shocks. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the particular sector will<br />
also be affected c<strong>on</strong>siderably. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> experts suggested that reducti<strong>on</strong> may rise up to 70-80% and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong><br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth could be 17%. Moreover, drought and erratic rainfall will also reduce crop producti<strong>on</strong> by 40%<br />
and 30% respectively, which will affect <strong>poverty</strong> moderately and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth at a lower scale. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following<br />
table shows the level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> crop agriculture, <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
Table 7.4: Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> crop agriculture, <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
Climatic Events<br />
64<br />
Poverty Gap Squared Poverty Gap<br />
Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban<br />
Barisal 15.5 16.3 10.7 6.3 6.6 4.3<br />
Chittag<strong>on</strong>g 6.3 6.5 5.6 1.7 1.7 1.6<br />
Dhaka 6.9 8.6 4.0 2.1 2.7 1.1<br />
Khulna 10.8 10.4 12.3 3.5 3.2 4.6<br />
Rajshahi 11.9 12.0 11.4 3.8 3.8 3.9<br />
Sylhet 7.2 7.6 4.5 2.1 2.2 1.5<br />
Nati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
Source: BBS<br />
9.0 9.8 6.5 2.9 3.1 2.1<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts (%)<br />
Identified Impacts Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Present Future Present Future Present Future<br />
(2100)<br />
(2100)<br />
(2100)<br />
Flood 50 80 50 80 12 17<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Climatic Events<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts (%)<br />
Identified Impacts Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Drought 25 40 8 30 2 5<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e 60 70 60 70 15 17<br />
Coastal inundati<strong>on</strong> 10 15 5 8 1 2<br />
Erratic rainfall 20 30 10 20 2 4<br />
Temperature variati<strong>on</strong> 05 7 2 5 1 2<br />
Heat wave - 2 - 1 - 1<br />
Fogginess 10 15 2 3 1 1<br />
Source: C<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshop with key experts, 2008<br />
7.3.2 Fisheries<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> workshops and key experts’ interviews revealed that flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> and cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm<br />
surge have severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> fisheries. It has been stated that these <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> affect <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
moderately. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> experts explained that these shocks damage aquaculture infrastructure and cause fish loss. This<br />
leads to loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor fishermen and decrease nutriti<strong>on</strong> status <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the rural poor. Moreover,<br />
frequent warnings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e lead the fishermen to stay at home for l<strong>on</strong>ger periods and thus their income<br />
decreased which increased their <strong>poverty</strong> level. Besides that, drought, salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and erratic behaviour <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
rainfall affect moderately and as a result <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth are also affected moderately. It is noted<br />
here that <strong>poverty</strong> includes <strong>on</strong>ly the poor who are dependent <strong>on</strong> this particular sector. Similarly, the ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth includes <strong>on</strong>ly the growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this particular sector and not nati<strong>on</strong>al ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> the fisheries sector will increase the <strong>poverty</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the particular livelihood group<br />
and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the sector. Severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood, drought, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surge, sea level rise and<br />
salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> will affect <strong>poverty</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the livelihood group severely as stated by the key experts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the fisheries<br />
sector. Income <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor, especially who are dependent <strong>on</strong> fisheries will reduce c<strong>on</strong>siderably. Moreover, they will<br />
suffer from malnutriti<strong>on</strong> due to reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fishing. Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fisheries sector will also be affected<br />
moderately.<br />
Table 7.5: Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> fisheries, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Key issues<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Identified <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Present<br />
Future<br />
(2100)<br />
Present<br />
Future<br />
(2100)<br />
Present<br />
Future<br />
(2100)<br />
Flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate<br />
Drought Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and Storm surge Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate<br />
Sea level rise - Severe - Severe - Severe<br />
Salinity Intrusi<strong>on</strong> Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate<br />
Erratic Rainfall Moderate Low Low Low Low Low<br />
Temperature Variati<strong>on</strong> Low Moderate Low Low Low Low<br />
Heat waveave - Low - Low - Low<br />
Cold Wave Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low<br />
Fogginess Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low<br />
Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Pest and diseases - Moderate - Low - VeryLow<br />
Source: Key experts’ workshop<br />
65
7.3.3 Livestock<br />
Livestock rearing is an important source <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> income and livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s for the rural poor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country.<br />
Pertinently, the impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> livestock affects the livelihood <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the rural poor. It reduces livelihood<br />
opportunities, income and employment opportunities <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor villagers. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> experts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock sector<br />
perceive that severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and extremes <strong>on</strong> livestock affect <strong>poverty</strong> moderately. But the<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sea level rise affects <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this particular sector severely as stated by the<br />
key experts. Drought, salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> and heat wave affect the sector moderately and c<strong>on</strong>sequently, both<br />
<strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth are moderately affected. Thus, the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> livestock affect<br />
<strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> activities and in attaining the MDGs.<br />
It is difficult to have a percepti<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> the <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, variability and extremes <strong>on</strong> livestock because<br />
there is no baseline informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> these issues. But it is easily perceived that death and producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock<br />
will decrease c<strong>on</strong>siderably with increasing intensity and frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shocks. Producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livelihood will also be<br />
hampered due to decrease <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> grazing lands, increase in death <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestocks etc. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se will lead to decrease in the<br />
health status affecting meat and milk producti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Table 7.6: Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> livestock, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
66<br />
Key issues<br />
Flood and river<br />
bank erosi<strong>on</strong><br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Identified <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Present Future Present Future Present Future<br />
Severe - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe<br />
Drought Moderate - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and<br />
Storm surge<br />
Severe - Severe Severe Severe Severe<br />
Sea level rise Severe - Severe Severe Severe Severe<br />
Salinity Intrusi<strong>on</strong> Moderate - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe<br />
Erratic Rainfall Low - Low Low Low Low<br />
Temperature<br />
Variati<strong>on</strong><br />
Moderate - Moderate - Moderate -<br />
Heat wave Moderate - Moderate Low Moderate Low<br />
Cold Wave Moderate - Moderate Very Low Moderate Very Low<br />
Fogginess - - - - - -<br />
Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Pest<br />
and diseases<br />
Source: Key experts’ workshop<br />
7.3.4 Forestry<br />
Moderate Moderate Moderate<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extreme weather events <strong>on</strong> forestry affect <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in different ways.<br />
Poverty is severely affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>e in the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> impact <strong>on</strong> forestry. Livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor<br />
and marginal communities in the forest areas, especially in the Sundarbans area mostly depend <strong>on</strong> forest<br />
resources. Very pertinently, <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shocks <strong>on</strong> forestry affect the poor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> that particular livelihood group. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
experts perceive that salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> severely affect forest trees and resources especially in the coastal regi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
This has moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> other shocks like flood and drought have<br />
moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> forestry which has low <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. Besides this, erratic<br />
rainfall and temperature variati<strong>on</strong> have low <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> forestry and lower <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong>.<br />
Sea level rise will affect forest coverage in the coastal areas very severely in future as stated by the key experts.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> reas<strong>on</strong> behind this is submergence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> brackish forest species and disappearance <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> inland trees and plants<br />
due to increase soil salinity by sea level rise. Flood, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and salinity intrusi<strong>on</strong> will have severe impact <strong>on</strong> forest<br />
resources. Poverty will be affected severely because the livelihood group depending <strong>on</strong> forest resources will lose<br />
their income source. Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> forest sector will also be hampered severely due to increasing<br />
frequency and intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> induced shocks.<br />
Table 7.7: Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> forestry, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Key issues<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Identified <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Present<br />
Future<br />
(2100)<br />
Present<br />
Future<br />
(2100)<br />
Present<br />
Future<br />
(2100)<br />
Flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> Moderate Severe Low Severe Low Severe<br />
Drought Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and Storm surge Severe Severe Severe Very<br />
Severe<br />
Sea level rise Moderate Very<br />
Severe<br />
Severe Very<br />
Severe<br />
Low Severe Low Severe<br />
Salinity Intrusi<strong>on</strong> Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate<br />
Erratic Rainfall Low Very<br />
Low<br />
Temperature Variati<strong>on</strong> Low Moderate<br />
Heat wave Very<br />
Low<br />
Cold Wave - Very<br />
Low<br />
Fogginess - Very<br />
Low<br />
Low Very<br />
Low<br />
Very<br />
Low<br />
Severe<br />
Low Low Low Low<br />
- Very<br />
Low<br />
- Very<br />
Low<br />
Low Very<br />
Low<br />
Low<br />
- Very Low<br />
- Very Low<br />
Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Pest and diseases - - - - - -<br />
Source: Key experts’ workshop<br />
7.3.5 Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
Water is such an element that any effect <strong>on</strong> water affects development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> any sector. Both slow and rapid <strong>on</strong>sets<br />
related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> have direct impact <strong>on</strong> water. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshops and interviews state that sea<br />
level rise affects water very severely, whereas flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong>, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and storm surges and heat<br />
wave affect severely. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> results <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these effects affect <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth moderately because crop<br />
damage, disease outbreaks, loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s, damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> infrastructure increases <strong>poverty</strong> affecting<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different sectors.<br />
67
Effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> water will be more severe compared to existing situati<strong>on</strong>. Moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong><br />
water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> will turn into severe to very severe as stated by the key experts. It is also noted that these<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> will affect <strong>poverty</strong> at greater scale.<br />
Table 7.8: Present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different climatic events <strong>on</strong> water and sanitati<strong>on</strong>, <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
7.3.6 Health<br />
It is revealed from the c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong>s that severe <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood, cycl<strong>on</strong>e and sea level rise <strong>on</strong> health affect<br />
<strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth severely causing malnutriti<strong>on</strong> and health degradati<strong>on</strong>. Drought and erratic<br />
rainfall have moderate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> health and affects <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth at a low to moderate scale.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> health affect <strong>poverty</strong> because the poor has less capacity to resp<strong>on</strong>d to those <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
7.3.7 Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Educati<strong>on</strong> is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the major elements for accelerating <strong>poverty</strong> eradicati<strong>on</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. Pertinently,<br />
impact <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> will affect <strong>poverty</strong> eradicati<strong>on</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong>s reveal that severe<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> affects <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth severely whereas a moderate<br />
impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sea level rise’s affect <strong>on</strong> educati<strong>on</strong> affects <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth at a low scale.<br />
7.4 Analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth<br />
This study made an attempt to analyse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth against<br />
different <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerability c<strong>on</strong>texts, particularly extreme events. It has followed the following logic to<br />
assess <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
Impacts <strong>on</strong> Poverty = Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Exposure = Frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Hazard x Number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> exposed household <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different<br />
livelihood categories<br />
Impacts <strong>on</strong> Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth = Sum <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different sectors. But due to lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> data <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> it has <strong>on</strong>ly<br />
c<strong>on</strong>sidered agriculture as a first step to understand the problems and also c<strong>on</strong>sider flood as <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the key<br />
hazards.<br />
68<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Key issues<br />
Identified <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> Poverty Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth<br />
Present Future<br />
Present Future (2100 ) Present Future<br />
(2100)<br />
(2100)<br />
Flood and river bank erosi<strong>on</strong> Severe Very Moderate Very Moderate Very<br />
Severe<br />
Severe<br />
Severe<br />
Drought Moderate Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and Storm surge Severe Very<br />
Severe<br />
Sea level rise Very<br />
Severe<br />
Very<br />
Severe<br />
Severe Very<br />
Severe<br />
Severe Very<br />
Severe<br />
Severe Very<br />
Severe<br />
Severe Very<br />
Severe<br />
Salinity Intrusi<strong>on</strong> Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate<br />
Erratic Rainfall Moderate Very<br />
Severe<br />
Low Very<br />
Severe<br />
Low Very<br />
Severe<br />
Temperature Variati<strong>on</strong> - -<br />
-<br />
- -<br />
-<br />
Heat wave Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe<br />
Cold Wave - Severe - Severe - Severe<br />
Fogginess<br />
- -<br />
-<br />
- -<br />
-<br />
Incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Pest and diseases - - - - - -<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
7.4.1 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Hazards <strong>on</strong> Sectors<br />
Table 7.9 shows loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boro crop producti<strong>on</strong> by cycl<strong>on</strong>e, Storm Surge and Hail storm over the last 10 years. In<br />
2000 and 2004, wind based shocks affected Boro producti<strong>on</strong> in coastal districts and north-east regi<strong>on</strong> and<br />
caused 6.35% and 10.65% loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong> respectively. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, the increasing trend <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these hazards will<br />
eventually affect the Boro rice producti<strong>on</strong> more intensively in future.<br />
Table 7.9: Damage to Boro rice Producti<strong>on</strong> due to Cycl<strong>on</strong>e, Storm Surge and Hail storm (in M. T<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Regi<strong>on</strong><br />
1994 1995<br />
Sylhet<br />
514610 555980<br />
Chittag<strong>on</strong>g 269000 300320<br />
Noakhali 186040 232540<br />
Faridpur 200400 219870<br />
Barisal<br />
65860 77410<br />
Jessore 364600 424040<br />
Khulna 114660 120510<br />
Patuakhali<br />
Total<br />
19530 21500<br />
Producti<strong>on</strong> 1734700 1952170<br />
Loss<br />
0<br />
0<br />
Producti<strong>on</strong><br />
+ loss<br />
% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Loss<br />
1734700 1952170<br />
Source: Agricultural Statistics, 2005<br />
Usually Aus and Aman rice are affected by flood <strong>on</strong> a regular basis. In the year 1998 and 2004, two catastrophic<br />
floods occurred and damaged the Aus and Aman producti<strong>on</strong> significantly. Available data shows that Aus<br />
producti<strong>on</strong> was decreased by 14.53% and 9.12% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. While, Aman producti<strong>on</strong><br />
decreased by 10.70% and 8.86% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se two main crops are affected and damages<br />
are caused at different extents by flood almost every year. However, historical data <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood shows that intensity<br />
and frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> severe flood is in increasing trend which reflects higher damage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> these two main crops. Table<br />
7.10 to 7.12 shows loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boro, Aus and Aman due to flood.<br />
Table 7.10: Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boro Rice due to Flood (in M T<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Year Producti<strong>on</strong><br />
Boro<br />
Loss Loss + Producti<strong>on</strong> % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Loss<br />
1994 6538170 139080 6677250 2.08<br />
1995 7221020<br />
1996 7459920<br />
1997 8137330<br />
1998 10551900 23558<br />
1999 0<br />
2000 11920940<br />
2001 11765500<br />
2002 12221850<br />
2003 12837230<br />
2004 13837060<br />
1996<br />
568630<br />
251090<br />
243810<br />
242950<br />
88110<br />
447600<br />
134680<br />
25860<br />
2002730<br />
25012<br />
2027742<br />
1.23<br />
Source: Year Book <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agricultural Statistics, 2005<br />
1997<br />
597500<br />
289490<br />
262710<br />
251600<br />
95830<br />
593260<br />
138150<br />
28510<br />
2257050<br />
2257050<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
-<br />
-<br />
-<br />
-<br />
-<br />
Year<br />
1998<br />
701090<br />
376170<br />
321060<br />
342800<br />
194350<br />
732810<br />
214930<br />
13660<br />
2896870<br />
2896870<br />
2000<br />
762830<br />
666350<br />
543080<br />
331350<br />
608300<br />
517220<br />
664430<br />
591110<br />
4684670<br />
317460<br />
5002130<br />
6.35<br />
2001<br />
745360<br />
676750<br />
513710<br />
323150<br />
581460<br />
616810<br />
691480<br />
524420<br />
4673140<br />
18440<br />
4691580<br />
0.39<br />
2002<br />
800970<br />
681580<br />
552520<br />
284220<br />
623030<br />
649750<br />
775420<br />
476420<br />
4843910<br />
247760<br />
5091670<br />
4.87<br />
2003<br />
848410<br />
697760<br />
551230<br />
343150<br />
596650<br />
787060<br />
720670<br />
536,560<br />
5081490<br />
15610<br />
5097100<br />
0.31<br />
10575458 0.22<br />
2004<br />
675563<br />
665129<br />
359728<br />
221808<br />
440382<br />
618543<br />
651199<br />
539576<br />
4171928<br />
497220<br />
4669148<br />
10.65<br />
69
Table 7.11: Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> AUSRice due to Flood (in M T<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Year Producti<strong>on</strong><br />
Loss<br />
Loss + Producti<strong>on</strong><br />
% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Loss<br />
1993<br />
0<br />
71835 71835<br />
1994 1790670<br />
31565<br />
1822235<br />
1.73<br />
1995 1676020<br />
176970<br />
1852990<br />
9.55<br />
1996 1870750<br />
12558<br />
1883308<br />
0.67<br />
1997 1874730<br />
30117<br />
1904847<br />
1.58<br />
1998 1616880<br />
274875<br />
1891755<br />
14.53<br />
1999<br />
26510<br />
26510<br />
2000<br />
8979640<br />
-<br />
8979640<br />
2001 17808690<br />
27540<br />
17836230<br />
0.15<br />
2002 35617380<br />
52030<br />
35669410<br />
0.15<br />
2003 71234760<br />
177880<br />
71412640<br />
0.25<br />
2004 1500470<br />
150590<br />
1651060<br />
9.12<br />
Source: Year Book <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agricultural Statistics, 2005<br />
Table 7.12: Loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> AMAN Rice due to Flood (in M.T<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Aman<br />
Year Producti<strong>on</strong> Loss Loss + Producti<strong>on</strong> % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Loss<br />
1993<br />
115313<br />
1994<br />
8503950<br />
3535<br />
8507485<br />
0.04<br />
1995<br />
8790330<br />
541995<br />
9332325<br />
5.81<br />
1996<br />
9551780<br />
8677<br />
9560457<br />
0.09<br />
1997<br />
8849900<br />
6240<br />
8856140<br />
0.07<br />
1998<br />
7735850<br />
927357<br />
8663207<br />
10.70<br />
1999<br />
242605<br />
242605<br />
2000<br />
11248930<br />
197970<br />
11446900<br />
1.73<br />
2001<br />
10726190<br />
34870<br />
10761060<br />
0.32<br />
2002<br />
11114950<br />
131890<br />
11246840<br />
1.17<br />
2003<br />
11520590<br />
43880<br />
11564470<br />
0.38<br />
2004<br />
9819617<br />
954500<br />
10774117<br />
8.86<br />
Source: Year Book <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agricultural Statistics, 2005<br />
7.4.2 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Hazards <strong>on</strong> GDP<br />
1998 and 2004 were two years <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> multi-hazards, including severe floods (both riverine and flash). C<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
crop agriculture to GDP has been reduced by 2.48% and 2.38% respectively. Compared to the percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> loss<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> AMAN and AUS producti<strong>on</strong> with reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop agriculture to GDP in 1998 and 2004, it is<br />
clear that the loss <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> producti<strong>on</strong> has posed a great impact <strong>on</strong> Nati<strong>on</strong>al GDP <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the particular sector.<br />
Table 7.13: Change in C<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong> to GDP due to CC related hazards<br />
GDP <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> three c<strong>on</strong>secutive year (Milli<strong>on</strong> Taka)<br />
Hazard pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ile<br />
Previous yr. Next yr.<br />
Crop Agriculture<br />
Same yr. Average Producti<strong>on</strong> Decrease<br />
PY & N Y Decrease in %<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- Nov, 1970 - - -<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e-Nov. 1971 (2) - -<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e-Dec; Tornado-<br />
April, 1973<br />
197661 22212 22352 109936.5 87584.5 79.67<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e-Aug., Nov.;<br />
Riverine flood 1974<br />
70<br />
Aus<br />
22352 25477 22212 23914.5 1702.5 7.12<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Hazard pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ile<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e-May; Drought<br />
1975<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e-May; Tornado-<br />
Apr, 1977<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
GDP <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> three c<strong>on</strong>secutive year (Milli<strong>on</strong> Taka)<br />
Crop Agriculture<br />
Previous yr. Next yr. Same yr. Average Producti<strong>on</strong><br />
PY & N Y Decrease<br />
22212 24457 25477 23334.5 -2142.5<br />
Decrease<br />
in %<br />
-9.18<br />
24457 26941 27381 25699 -1682 -6.55<br />
Drought- 1978-79 27381 26841 26941 27111 170 0.63<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- Dec.; Drought<br />
1981<br />
28481 28794 27597 28637.5 1040.5 3.63<br />
Drought- 1982 27597 29120 28794 28358.5 -435.5 -1.54<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- Oct & Nov 1983 28794 29155 29120 28974.5 -145.5 -0.50<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- May 1985 29155 139596 139599 84375.5 -55223.5 -65.45<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- 1986 139599 137119 139596 138359 -1237 -0.89<br />
Riverine flood-1987 139596 134509 137119 137052.5 -66.5 -0.05<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- Nov.; Riverine<br />
flood 1988<br />
Tornado & Nor’wester-Apr;<br />
Riverine flood; flash flood,<br />
2004<br />
Source: BBS, Wikipedia, CDMP, SMRC.<br />
137119 150828 134509 143973.5 9464.5 6.57<br />
Tornado- April; Drought; 134509 152575 150828 143542 -7286 -5.08<br />
Riverine flood 1989<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- Apr, May, 1991 152575 156392 154640 154483.5 -156.5 -0.10<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- May,Nov 1992 154640 157203 156392 155921.5 -470.5 -0.30<br />
Tornado-Jan & May;<br />
Riverine flood; River<br />
erosi<strong>on</strong>-June, 1993<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- Apr.; Drought<br />
1994<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e-Nov. 1995 (2);<br />
Tornado-Sep. 1995<br />
156392 148068 157203 152230 -4973 -3.27<br />
157203 152168 148068 154685.5 6617.5 4.28<br />
148068 255376 152168 201722 49554 24.57<br />
Tornado- May, 1996 152168 258098 255376 205133 -50243 -24.49<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e- May, Sept.,<br />
Tornado- Oct. 1997<br />
255376 266136 258098 260756 2658 1.02<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e-May, Nov.,<br />
Tornado-July; Riverine<br />
Flood 1998<br />
258098 287688 266136 272893 6757 2.48<br />
Tornado- March1999 266136 305481 287688 285808.5 -1879.5 -0.66<br />
Tornado-Sep.; Riverine<br />
flood; Flash flood 2000<br />
287688 298187 305481 292937.5 -12543.5 -4.28<br />
Tornado-May,; Nor’wester-<br />
Apr , 2003<br />
306765 320339 319875 313552 -6323 -2.02<br />
319875 336439 320339 328157 7818 2.38<br />
71
7.4.3 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Flood <strong>on</strong> Different Types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Livelihoods<br />
Exposure <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> households to flood varies by livelihood groups, and agriculture and agricultural labour dependent<br />
families are most affected due to their higher engagement in this sector. In Rajshahi divisi<strong>on</strong>, 63% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> households<br />
involved in agriculture and agricultural labour are exposed to flood. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, household dependent <strong>on</strong><br />
agriculture is the most vulnerable livelihood group in this divisi<strong>on</strong>. Similarly in Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet divisi<strong>on</strong>,<br />
54%, 51% and 49% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> households are exposed to flood respectively which is significantly higher in number than<br />
those <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Dhaka and Chittag<strong>on</strong>g divisi<strong>on</strong>s.<br />
7.4.3.1 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Khulna Divisi<strong>on</strong> 7.4.3.2 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Chittag<strong>on</strong>g Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
Transport<br />
4%<br />
Business<br />
16%<br />
Service<br />
6%<br />
Transport<br />
3%<br />
Business<br />
12%<br />
Industry<br />
1%<br />
Handloom<br />
2%<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-agri labor<br />
4%<br />
72<br />
Service<br />
9%<br />
Industry<br />
1%<br />
Handloom<br />
1%<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-agri labor<br />
4%<br />
Other 9%<br />
Other<br />
8%<br />
Agri Labor<br />
26%<br />
Agri Labor<br />
23%<br />
Agri/For/Live<br />
31%<br />
Fishery<br />
2%<br />
Agri/For/Live<br />
37%<br />
Fishery<br />
1%<br />
Service<br />
15%<br />
Transport<br />
4%<br />
Service<br />
14%<br />
Transport<br />
4%<br />
Other<br />
18%<br />
Business<br />
16%<br />
Business<br />
16%<br />
Other<br />
14%<br />
Industry<br />
1%<br />
Agri/For/Live<br />
23%<br />
Fishery<br />
2%<br />
Agri Labor<br />
18%<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-agri labor<br />
3%<br />
Handloom<br />
0%<br />
Industry<br />
1%<br />
7.4.3.3 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Rajshahi Divisi<strong>on</strong> 7.4.3.4 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Dhaka Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
Agri/For/Live<br />
30%<br />
Fishery<br />
1%<br />
Agri Labor<br />
16%<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-agri labor<br />
3%<br />
Handloom<br />
1%<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
7.4.3.5 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Sylhet Divisi<strong>on</strong> 7.4.3.6 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Barisal Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
Service<br />
6%<br />
Transport<br />
2%<br />
Business<br />
12%<br />
Industry<br />
1%<br />
Handloom<br />
0%<br />
Other<br />
19%<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-agri labor<br />
8%<br />
Agri/For/Live<br />
27%<br />
Fishery<br />
3%<br />
Agri Labor<br />
22%<br />
7.4.3.7 % <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> HH Exposed to Flood in Bangladesh<br />
Service<br />
10%<br />
Transport<br />
4%<br />
Business<br />
14%<br />
Industry<br />
1%<br />
Other<br />
13%<br />
Handloom<br />
1%<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-agri labor 4%<br />
7.4.4 Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Cycl<strong>on</strong>e <strong>on</strong> Different Types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Livelihood<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re are 19 districts in the coastal belt <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh and table 03 shows the most vulnerable <strong>on</strong>es depending<br />
<strong>on</strong> frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> being affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>e. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> coastal districts are eventually vulnerable to cycl<strong>on</strong>e due to<br />
gevographical locati<strong>on</strong> but am<strong>on</strong>g those 19 coastal districts Patuakhali, Barisal, Cox’s Bazar, Khulna, Bhola,<br />
Noakhali, Chittag<strong>on</strong>g and Barguna are the most vulnerable districts depending <strong>on</strong> percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> household<br />
being affected by cycl<strong>on</strong>es in the past 37 years.<br />
It is a matter <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> great regret that almost all the districts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh have had bad experience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> suffering from<br />
flood except for the hilly regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, to assess the actual impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood, a district wise<br />
vulnerability and damage assessment is required. In this case, the percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> household involved in agriculture<br />
in each flood affected district has been calculated and their vulnerability has been assessed through multiplying<br />
the percentage with frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood. Some details have been presented in the next secti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the report.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Service<br />
9%<br />
Transport<br />
2%<br />
Business<br />
15%<br />
Industry<br />
1%<br />
Handloom<br />
0%<br />
N<strong>on</strong>-agri labor<br />
5%<br />
Table 7.14: Exposure <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Household Involved in Agriculture to Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e 1970-2007<br />
District Times Total HH HH involved in<br />
Agri.<br />
Other<br />
12%<br />
Agri/For/Live<br />
31%<br />
Fishery<br />
2%<br />
Agri Labor<br />
20%<br />
HH affected<br />
in %<br />
Agri Labor<br />
21%<br />
Dhaka 1<br />
1666181 70827 4.25 4.25<br />
Agri/For/Live<br />
30%<br />
Fishery<br />
5%<br />
Vulnerability %<br />
73
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e 1970-2007<br />
District Times Total HH HH involved in<br />
Agri.<br />
7.4.5 Causes and Impacts Relati<strong>on</strong>ship<br />
It is evident from the above secti<strong>on</strong>s that adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> related issues <strong>on</strong> different sectors and<br />
regi<strong>on</strong> will vary and at the same time <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth will also vary. It is found that<br />
adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the coastal area are severe compared to other regi<strong>on</strong>s and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth are severe as well. Flood affects different sectors at different scale and ultimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth will be moderate. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following diagrams show level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> related issues and<br />
their subsequent <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic grow.<br />
74<br />
HH affected<br />
in %<br />
Sylhet 1<br />
412708 70326 17.04 17.04<br />
Bagerhat 1<br />
319004 86438 27.10 27.10<br />
Kushtia 1<br />
376927 105568 28.01 28.01<br />
Jessore<br />
1<br />
519400 164039 31.58 31.58<br />
Faridpur 1<br />
345578 121069 35.03 35.03<br />
Barguna 3<br />
176648 67810 38.39 115.16<br />
Chittag<strong>on</strong>g 12<br />
1180682 122180 10.35 124.18<br />
Noakhali 8<br />
451580 79944 17.70 141.63<br />
Vulnerability %<br />
Bhola 5<br />
325073 93812 28.86 144.29<br />
Khulna 8<br />
486611 89928 18.48 147.84<br />
Cox's Bazar 10<br />
290131 57465 19.81 198.07<br />
Barisal 8<br />
463319 114938 24.81 198.46<br />
Patuakhali 9<br />
282570 97221 34.41 309.65<br />
Source: SMRC, 2003, Wikipedia, DAE and BBS, 2007<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Figure 7.1 Existing Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in<br />
Relati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Sectors-Flood Pr<strong>on</strong>e Areas<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Very severe<br />
Severe<br />
Moderate<br />
Low<br />
Very low<br />
Flood Pr<strong>on</strong>e Areas<br />
Climate Change<br />
Vulnerability<br />
(Riverine Flood,Flsah<br />
Flood, River<br />
Band Erisi<strong>on</strong><br />
Coastal Area<br />
Climate Change<br />
vulnerabilities (Cycl<strong>on</strong>e,<br />
SLR, Salinity)<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Very severe<br />
Severe<br />
Moderate<br />
Low<br />
Very low<br />
Crop Agriculture<br />
Fisheries<br />
Forestry<br />
Livestock<br />
Industry &Infrastructure<br />
Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
Health<br />
Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Sectors<br />
Figure 7.2 Existing Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in Relati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> Sectors-Coastal Area<br />
Crop Agriculture<br />
Fisheries<br />
Forestry<br />
Livestock<br />
Industry and Infrastructure<br />
Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
Health<br />
Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Sectors<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Poverty<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
Growth<br />
Poverty<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth<br />
75
Figure 7.3 Existing Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in Relati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong><br />
Sectors- Drought Pr<strong>on</strong>e Areas<br />
Climate Change<br />
vulnerabilities (Drought,<br />
Temperature Variati<strong>on</strong><br />
Erratic Rainfall)<br />
76<br />
Drought Pr<strong>on</strong>e Areas<br />
Crop Agriculture<br />
Fisheries<br />
Forestry<br />
Livestock<br />
Industry and Infrastructure<br />
Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
Health<br />
Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Sectors<br />
Level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Very severe<br />
Severe<br />
Moderate<br />
Low<br />
Very low<br />
No impact<br />
Poverty<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Existing Coping<br />
Strategies/Practices<br />
77
8. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re are a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> strategies and practices which have evolved over time to deal with the adverse effects<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> and n<strong>on</strong>-climatic stresses. Most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> them have evolved as a reactive resp<strong>on</strong>se to problems. However,<br />
many <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> them have potential to address future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and associated problems. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following secti<strong>on</strong><br />
summarizes the existing coping strategies and practices by different sectors derived from stakeholder<br />
c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong>s and expert interviews.<br />
8.1 Crop Agriculture<br />
BARI & BINA have undertaken research strategies <strong>on</strong> development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> risk tolerant variety (drought and salttolerant<br />
& short durati<strong>on</strong> pulses and oil seed crop varieties, including drought tolerant wheat)<br />
BRRI is strengthening their research strategy to adopt rice cultivati<strong>on</strong> with changing climatic situati<strong>on</strong>:<br />
- Cultivati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> BR 42, 43 & BINA Dhan 7 as drought tolerant crops<br />
- Local variety is cultivated in low-lying coastal areas<br />
Research is going <strong>on</strong> to develop new varieties for coastal regi<strong>on</strong> through cross breeding between salt<br />
tolerant and submerged varieties and BRRI already released salt-tolerant rice variety (Bridhan 47) for the<br />
coastal regi<strong>on</strong><br />
Farmers use ash in the field to keep the soil warm during winter<br />
Farmers are adopting some innovative practices(viz. zero tillage, priming <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> seeds during sowing, mulching,<br />
relay cropping, dry seeding, rain water harvest, floating bed vegetable cultivati<strong>on</strong>, sorjan system, short<br />
durati<strong>on</strong> varieties etc.) in the drought pr<strong>on</strong>e area<br />
Farmers are adopting some innovative practices (viz. zero tillage, sorjan system, floating bed agriculture etc.)<br />
in flood pr<strong>on</strong>e and salinity/tidal surge areas<br />
Documentati<strong>on</strong>, motivati<strong>on</strong>, training & disseminati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> new adoptive technologies by the farmers<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> linkage with GO/NGOs and private sectors<br />
Short durati<strong>on</strong> Boro rice (limited scale)<br />
Raised pit system<br />
Adjustment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cropping pattern<br />
8.2 Fisheries<br />
Raising p<strong>on</strong>d embankment<br />
P<strong>on</strong>d fencing by net<br />
Fish in p<strong>on</strong>d harvested before drought and in commercial farming water is supplied<br />
Awareness and precauti<strong>on</strong><br />
Enhancement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish producti<strong>on</strong> through rehabilitati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish producti<strong>on</strong> and establishment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish sanctuary<br />
increased aquaculture producti<strong>on</strong><br />
Aquatic vegetati<strong>on</strong> shelter in p<strong>on</strong>ds<br />
Agitati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> surface water<br />
Advance fishes’ selling<br />
Re-digging deeply<br />
Preparing water reservoir<br />
Digging canals and re-digging<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
79
Binding boats and nets with trees<br />
Changing species<br />
Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> salinity tolerant species<br />
8.3 Forestry<br />
Plantati<strong>on</strong> in highlands<br />
Dyke plantati<strong>on</strong><br />
Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought resistant species<br />
Planting deep rooted species in cycl<strong>on</strong>e pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> small scale coastal embankment<br />
Afforestati<strong>on</strong> al<strong>on</strong>g the coastal belt<br />
Germinati<strong>on</strong> programs<br />
A learning that temperature scenarios for future need to be c<strong>on</strong>sidered for choice <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> species to secure the<br />
investments in plantati<strong>on</strong> sector<br />
8.4 Livestock<br />
Emergency resp<strong>on</strong>se & post flood rehabilitati<strong>on</strong> program.<br />
Transfer <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> small ruminant and poultry from flood and cycl<strong>on</strong>e affected areas to high land<br />
Shed for poultry/shed management during drought<br />
Emergency recovery, restorati<strong>on</strong> & resp<strong>on</strong>se with l<strong>on</strong>g term restorati<strong>on</strong><br />
Cold water spraying <strong>on</strong> the shed during high temperature<br />
Use <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> preventive medicine for disease preventi<strong>on</strong> and curative measures<br />
Sometimes people sell their livestock to avoid sufferings from natural hazards<br />
Advance food preservati<strong>on</strong><br />
Preparing raised land<br />
Salinity tolerant grass<br />
8.5 Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
80<br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> cycl<strong>on</strong>e shelter, coastal Embankment, and coastal Polder<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drainage System<br />
Riverbank protecti<strong>on</strong><br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> submergible embankment<br />
River Dragging<br />
Change <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> land use and land use pattern<br />
Innovative agricultural practices (floating vegetable garden, seedbed).<br />
Deep tube-well water supply for irrigati<strong>on</strong> and rainwater harvesting for supplementary irrigati<strong>on</strong><br />
Aband<strong>on</strong>ment and shifting to higher lands<br />
Saltwater shrimp and fish culture<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
8.6 Industry and Infrastructure<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re have been repair and rehabilitati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> existing infrastructures such as rural houses and internal<br />
roads/bridges during post disaster period.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re has been c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> embankments at the individual level by hotels so as to protect their<br />
establishments from intrusi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> saline water in coastal areas (Hotel Sea Crown spent Tk. 25 lacs but this can not<br />
be l<strong>on</strong>g lasting).<br />
Restorati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the c<strong>on</strong>nectivity/accessibility to utility supplies such as gas, water and electricity by rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the infrastructures after a disaster.<br />
Small and medium industries are kept closed for a few days due to massive floods or salt water intrusi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Parts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Tourism industry such as a huge porti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Marine Drive were shifted due to coastal erosi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
8.7 Health<br />
Indigenous Knowledge, Alum to prevent diseases under changing situati<strong>on</strong><br />
Adjust cooking, C<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> Pattern through remaining half-fed or sometimes unfed<br />
Provide special health services through special medical team,<br />
Hygiene promoti<strong>on</strong><br />
Use <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water purificati<strong>on</strong> tablet for providing safe water and sanitati<strong>on</strong> facilities<br />
Government emergency preparedness program<br />
Special diseases c<strong>on</strong>trol program by the government<br />
Maternal and child base program<br />
Promote use <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rainwater, tube well water and p<strong>on</strong>d water<br />
Nutriti<strong>on</strong> program<br />
Health ARA program<br />
8.8 Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
During summer and rapid <strong>on</strong>set disaster, educati<strong>on</strong>al instituti<strong>on</strong>s declare vacati<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>re is also provisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flexible school calendar<br />
In some areas <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country where flood and water logging are major problems, people use boat to go to<br />
educati<strong>on</strong>al instituti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
Shelter home cum school building built<br />
House to be well-built and flood tolerant, so that people do not get displaced during flood<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
81
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Probable Future<br />
Coping Strategies<br />
83
9. Strategies and acti<strong>on</strong>s suggested here to deal with adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
and related disasters are based <strong>on</strong> suggesti<strong>on</strong>s derived from different c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> workshops and key experts’<br />
interviews. Key principles c<strong>on</strong>sidered in formulating strategies and acti<strong>on</strong>s were a) reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> exposure <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
income stream and producti<strong>on</strong> systems, b) reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitivity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the exposed systems, and c) increase<br />
adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerable communities. Instituti<strong>on</strong>al and capacity building aspects to support<br />
implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> acti<strong>on</strong>s have also been c<strong>on</strong>sidered. It was found that there is similarity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> suggesti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
menti<strong>on</strong>ed here and in the nati<strong>on</strong>al <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> strategy and acti<strong>on</strong> plan.<br />
9.1 Reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Exposure<br />
“Exposure” is defined as the c<strong>on</strong>tact between an agent and a target. Basically it is the state <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> being exposed or<br />
laid open or bare; openness to danger; accessibility to anything that may affect adversely. Different systems are<br />
exposed to different <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events in different ways and magnitude. Hence, the reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
exposure means the strategies or measures to be undertaken to reduce the exposures <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the systems which are<br />
the driving force <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth from <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> related shocks. It is to be noted that most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the measures are<br />
physical types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> interventi<strong>on</strong> in nature. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows the measures to reduce the exposure <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
different systems.<br />
Table 9.1 Provide list <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> measures to reduce exposure<br />
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Agriculture<br />
Fisheries<br />
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood and<br />
Flash flood<br />
Drought<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and<br />
Storm surge<br />
Sea level rise<br />
Flood and<br />
Flash flood<br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> embankment<br />
incorporating future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
and adequate sluice gates<br />
Excavati<strong>on</strong>and re-excavati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
canals, p<strong>on</strong>ds and ditches,<br />
c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>sluice gates<strong>on</strong><br />
theopening mouths <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
thecanalsRainwater harvesting<br />
technology should be strengthened<br />
for all types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> dry land crops during<br />
drier m<strong>on</strong>ths<br />
Deep-rooted fruit trees andfruit<br />
crops should be planted in cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Coastal embankment should<br />
bec<strong>on</strong>structed highenough<br />
toprotect saltwater intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Increase water holding capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
river by dredging/de-siltati<strong>on</strong><br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood free p<strong>on</strong>d<br />
embankment and net fencing,<br />
rehabilitati<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>cept proposal,<br />
approach and pursue with local<br />
government and Water<br />
Development Board<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>cept proposal,<br />
approach and pursue with local<br />
government and Water<br />
Development Board<br />
Local government, n<strong>on</strong>government<br />
organizati<strong>on</strong>s and<br />
community can develop<br />
c<strong>on</strong>tingency plan for lifting<br />
stagnant water<br />
85
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Forestry<br />
86<br />
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Drought<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and<br />
storm surge<br />
Sea level rise<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood and<br />
Flash flood<br />
Drought<br />
Sea level rise<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Storage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fry/fingerlings in flood<br />
free govt./private hatcheries for<br />
post flood stocking Re-excavati<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water bodies regularly Enhance<br />
open water fish producti<strong>on</strong><br />
through rehabilitati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish<br />
habitats and establishment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> fish<br />
sanctuary<br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water reservoir for<br />
water supply to aqua culture and<br />
in river system Storage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rain<br />
water and river water by damps<br />
Timely warning, awareness<br />
creati<strong>on</strong> and precauti<strong>on</strong> Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
shelter and boat shelter for<br />
fishermen, multi-storied dwelling<br />
houses<br />
Intensified coastal<br />
aquaculturewith appropriate<br />
technology and infrastructure<br />
Water drainage needs to be<br />
improved toreduce flood damage<br />
to trees and plants<br />
Germinati<strong>on</strong> and planting<br />
technologies interventi<strong>on</strong> for all<br />
hazards individually<br />
Technology for holding the rain<br />
water<br />
Embankment for protecti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>saline water<br />
Cheaper treatment plants for<br />
purifying the saline water<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Livestock<br />
Water and<br />
Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
Industry and<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood and<br />
Flash flood<br />
Drought<br />
Erratic<br />
Rainfall<br />
Flood and<br />
Flash flood<br />
Drought<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood and<br />
Flash flood<br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livestock shelter<br />
Establishment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood<br />
centers,ensure animal food supply,<br />
preventive measures during flood<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> irrigati<strong>on</strong> system<br />
for fodder producti<strong>on</strong>, feeds and<br />
fodder preservati<strong>on</strong> for lean<br />
period<br />
Disease preventi<strong>on</strong> and curative<br />
measures<br />
Intensify flood protecti<strong>on</strong><br />
measures and c<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
multi-storied buildings with<br />
proper sanitati<strong>on</strong> system<br />
Improvement and expansi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
drainage system in both urban<br />
and rural areas<br />
Harve sting <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> rain water<br />
Establishment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water treatment<br />
plant<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> impact assessment is<br />
very essential at the initial stage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
planning and implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> any<br />
infrastructural or industrial<br />
development<br />
Establish future infrastructures<br />
through <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in existing<br />
guidelines and designs with regular<br />
upgrading<br />
Need flood shelters and more<br />
cycl<strong>on</strong>e shelters at right locati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
that shouldbe multi-purpose Need<br />
more disaster- resistant infrastructure<br />
Local government, n<strong>on</strong>government<br />
organizati<strong>on</strong>s, and<br />
community can develop plan to<br />
establish flood-free shelters for<br />
livestock<br />
87
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Homestead<br />
9.2 Reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Sensitivity<br />
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability or<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> effect may be direct (e.g., a <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in crop yield in resp<strong>on</strong>se to a <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the mean, range or<br />
variability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coastal flooding<br />
due to sea-level rise). Measures related to reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitivity are research and innovati<strong>on</strong>, <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in<br />
practices, and physical interventi<strong>on</strong>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table shows the means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitivity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
exposed systems.<br />
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Agriculture<br />
88<br />
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Imp lementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and<br />
storm surge<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Storm,<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and<br />
Nor’wester<br />
Flood Raise plinth height above flood level<br />
Flood<br />
Table 9.2 Provide list <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> opti<strong>on</strong>s to reduce sensitivity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the system<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong> Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood and<br />
Flash flood<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> rural housing infrastructure<br />
should be str<strong>on</strong>ger and more with<br />
standing<br />
All kinds <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> necessary supplies<br />
suchas the utilities <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> electricity, gas<br />
and water should be c<strong>on</strong>structed at<br />
safe locati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
Relocate industries located in the<br />
coastal areas since they require<br />
fresh water for internal processing<br />
Plantati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water and storm<br />
resistant trees at homestead and<br />
road side<br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> multipurpose flood<br />
shelters insuitable places. Specific<br />
suggesti<strong>on</strong> is to build primary<br />
schools at Senbari and Baidyabari.<br />
Flood tolerant crop varietiesto be<br />
introduced (BRRI-42, 43 & BINA shail)<br />
Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> early/short durati<strong>on</strong><br />
variety (BRRI-33, & BINA-7)<br />
Develop program for<br />
implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> social and<br />
community forestry program by<br />
local NGOs and local government<br />
Community awareness and<br />
financial support topoor<br />
andvulnerable community<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>cept proposal,<br />
approach and pursue with local<br />
government and ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Extensi<strong>on</strong> program through<br />
engagement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> DAE, BARI, local<br />
government, NGOs and community<br />
to promote improved variety <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
crops<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong> Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Drought<br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e and<br />
Storm surge<br />
All BRRI dhan should be grown in<br />
medium high land<br />
Cropping pattern needs tobe<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>d<br />
Choice <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop variety and cropping<br />
pattern<br />
Screening <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> existing varieties in<br />
vulnerable situati<strong>on</strong> c<strong>on</strong>sidering<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> (for all<br />
hazards)<br />
Submergence variety needs to<br />
bedeveloped for future adaptati<strong>on</strong><br />
incrop agriculture <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> flood pr<strong>on</strong>e<br />
areas<br />
Study <strong>on</strong> assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop<br />
lossshould be undertaken (crop<br />
lossdue to all types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>climatic<br />
eventsindividually)<br />
Crop adjustment and revised time <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
sowing/planting should be studied<br />
through <strong>on</strong>-farm<br />
trials/dem<strong>on</strong>strati<strong>on</strong><br />
C<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water reservoir and<br />
provide irrigati<strong>on</strong> system<br />
Introduce drought tolerant crop<br />
varieties in drought pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
using residual moisture<br />
Extensi<strong>on</strong> program <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> BR 33, a short<br />
durati<strong>on</strong> variety (118 days) is known<br />
as drought escaping in drought<br />
pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Introduce short durati<strong>on</strong> crop<br />
varieties and deepwater varieties<br />
Sea level Introduce modern technology for<br />
cultivating new variety <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Research <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s<br />
inclimaticsystem<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crop seas<strong>on</strong>s<br />
involving research organizati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
from GOs and NGOs<br />
BARI, BINA, BRRI and Research<br />
NGOs<br />
GoB and NGOs<br />
BARI in associati<strong>on</strong>withNGOs<br />
Developc<strong>on</strong>cept proposal<br />
andengage local government,<br />
NGOs and community toimplement<br />
this acti<strong>on</strong><br />
Organize vulnerable farmer<br />
community tointroduce short<br />
durati<strong>on</strong> and deep water<br />
cropvarieties<br />
Organize vulnerable farmer<br />
community to introduce new<br />
89
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Fisheries<br />
Forestry<br />
90<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong> Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
rise and salttolerant crops<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Cold Wave<br />
Flood and<br />
Flash<br />
Drought<br />
Sea level rise<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Temperature<br />
Variati<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood and<br />
flash flood<br />
Drought<br />
Salinity<br />
BRRI-47 can to lerate 6-10 ds/m, at a<br />
young stage it can tolerate 14<br />
ds/m.Extensi<strong>on</strong> program <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this<br />
variety needs to be taken in coastal<br />
areas.<br />
Cold tolerant crop varieties need tobe<br />
invented/developed and distributed<br />
am<strong>on</strong>g farmers in northern districts<br />
Development and supply <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
shortcycle fish species for<br />
aquaculture<br />
Adjust aquaculture period<br />
withculture cycle from October-June<br />
Introduce flood plain aquaculture<br />
Aquaculture and fishing technology<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and modificati<strong>on</strong> (for all<br />
hazards)<br />
Increase aquaculture<br />
practiceincluding freshwater<br />
shrimpcultivati<strong>on</strong><br />
Introduce drought resistant fish spp.<br />
for aquaculture<br />
Introduce sea cage culture and sea<br />
ranching<br />
Introduce brackish water finfish<br />
aquaculture<br />
Saline resistant spp. needs to be<br />
introduced in aquaculture<br />
Enclosure around selected large<br />
fresh waterhabitats<br />
Introduce temperature tolerant<br />
species<br />
Watertolerant forest tree sand plants<br />
species needed in flood pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Good irrigati<strong>on</strong> system to be<br />
developed for trees and plants<br />
Drought resistant varieties <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> tree<br />
sand plants should be introduced<br />
and planted<br />
More salt tolerant trees with high<br />
yielding variety need to be<br />
technology by NGOs and local<br />
government<br />
Organize vulnerable farmer<br />
community to introduce new<br />
technology by NGOs and local<br />
government<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Livestock<br />
Water and<br />
Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
Industry and<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Existing<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong> Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood and<br />
flash flood<br />
Drought<br />
Sea level rise<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Temperature<br />
Variati<strong>on</strong><br />
Heat wave<br />
Flood and<br />
flash flood<br />
Flood and<br />
flash flood<br />
Flood<br />
developed<br />
Aware and involve policy pers<strong>on</strong>nel<br />
and mass populati<strong>on</strong><br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>feeding system<br />
toreduce producti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>methane and<br />
carb<strong>on</strong> dioxide<br />
Preservati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> feeds and<br />
fodder,introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> drought<br />
tolerant fodder species<br />
Protect fodder producti<strong>on</strong> area by<br />
embankment<br />
Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> salt tolerant fodder<br />
species<br />
Temperature tolerance livestock<br />
breeds should be under taken<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> special type <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
housing for animal and poultry, feeds<br />
and fodder preservati<strong>on</strong>,introducti<strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> heat tolerant fodder species<br />
Early warning disseminati<strong>on</strong> needs to<br />
be improved (for all hazards)<br />
Awareness raising and capacity<br />
building toward adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> industry and<br />
infrastructure (for all hazards)<br />
Assessment<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<strong>on</strong> industries and infrastructure<br />
Develop a baseline data based <strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> CC and industry and<br />
infrastructure<br />
Develop <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> resilient cluster<br />
compact villages – a growth center<br />
with all <strong>on</strong>e-stop services such<br />
asschool, community centre,shopping<br />
complex, industrial activity- a <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
pro<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> settlement<br />
Increase robustness <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> existing roads<br />
and embankments through increasing<br />
their heighs. Aspecific suggesti<strong>on</strong> is to<br />
raise plinth height <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Goalgram to<br />
Kaligram bound road.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>cept proposal,<br />
approach and pursue with local<br />
government.<br />
91
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Housing<br />
Aquaculture Flood<br />
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
92<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong> Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Storm and<br />
Flood<br />
Agriculture Floodand<br />
Flash flood<br />
Making storm resistant houses and<br />
increase plinth height <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> houses<br />
(flood free houses)<br />
Raising and strengthening <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
embankments <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>the p<strong>on</strong>ds<br />
9.3 Improvement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Adaptive Capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Community<br />
Organize vulnerable household<br />
sand provide resources to build<br />
storm resistant and flood free<br />
houses<br />
Table 9.3 Provide types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> interventi<strong>on</strong> to enhance adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the community<br />
Mobilize fishermen community<br />
and aquaculture groups to build a<br />
resilience system<br />
Improvement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the community is required to primarily build resilience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the community<br />
through implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> s<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>t measures including training, educati<strong>on</strong> and alternative means<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> livelihood system.<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong> Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Establish cottage industries at local<br />
level: Tailoring, Bamboo and cane, Jute<br />
goods, earth goods, Jewelleries<br />
industries<br />
Promote alternative livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s<br />
(poultry and cattle rearing,<br />
aquaculture, plant nursery, etc.)<br />
Encourage farmers to adopt innovative<br />
practices viz. floating bed agriculture<br />
and sorjan system in flood pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Increase aquaculture practice<br />
including freshwater shrimp<br />
cultivati<strong>on</strong><br />
Establish informati<strong>on</strong> centre at local<br />
level <strong>on</strong> different technologies for<br />
adaptati<strong>on</strong> to deal with flood and<br />
water logging<br />
Community based public property<br />
management (water, aquatic resources<br />
etc.)<br />
Capacity building and awareness<br />
raising programs for farmers should be<br />
undertaken<br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> programs by local<br />
NGOs for diversificati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
livelihood opti<strong>on</strong>s, depending <strong>on</strong><br />
household assets and capabilities<br />
Training for<br />
farmersdem<strong>on</strong>strati<strong>on</strong>s,<br />
developcommunicati<strong>on</strong><br />
materialsinvolving NGOs<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Drought<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
Cycl<strong>on</strong>e<br />
and storm<br />
surge<br />
Sea level<br />
rise<br />
Salinity<br />
Intrusi<strong>on</strong><br />
Erratic<br />
Rainfall<br />
Heat wave<br />
Cold Wave Introduce cold tolerant species<br />
Fisheries Drought<br />
Ensure demand based water supply for<br />
aquaculture<br />
Communities Heat wave Tidal River Management (TRM)<br />
Livestock Cold Wave<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Early vegetables can be grown pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>itably to<br />
improve the livelihood <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> farming<br />
community<br />
Encourage farmers to adopt innovative<br />
practices viz. zero tillage, priming, dry<br />
farming, mulching, relay cropping etc. in<br />
drought pr<strong>on</strong>e area<br />
Tides level started to recede from 15<br />
September. This time high yielding varieties<br />
should grow in coastal areas<br />
Farmers should be encouraged to adopt<br />
some promising traditi<strong>on</strong>al/innovative<br />
practices viz. zero tillage, sorjan system,<br />
floating bed agriculture, rainwater harvest,<br />
cultivati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> aquatic crops/medicinal plants<br />
etc. to improve livelihoods <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the vulnerable<br />
community<br />
Salt tolerant species like chilli, groundnut,<br />
methi, water mel<strong>on</strong>, cucumber etc. should<br />
be cultivated in saline pr<strong>on</strong>e areas<br />
Fish disease c<strong>on</strong>trol and curative<br />
measures in p<strong>on</strong>ds by using<br />
medicine/insecticides, keep the<br />
surrounding envir<strong>on</strong>ment by the p<strong>on</strong>d<br />
clean<br />
Create agitati<strong>on</strong> in water or use aerati<strong>on</strong><br />
Establish veterinary centre at village level<br />
for animal health during flood and water<br />
logging period Management technology<br />
should be developed<br />
Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> program by NGOs<br />
in associati<strong>on</strong> with Water<br />
Development Board for<br />
community based implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> program by local<br />
NGOs and local engagement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
local government, particularly<br />
veterinary doctor for providing<br />
services<br />
93
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Health Fogginess<br />
Disaster Risk<br />
Reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
(DRR)<br />
94<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood, water<br />
logging<br />
9.4 Instituti<strong>on</strong>al Capacity Building<br />
Ensure pure/safe drinking water Establish<br />
health centre and need skilled doctors<br />
Preventi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water borne diseases<br />
Installati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> community based sanitary<br />
latrines at flood free places<br />
Need based effective training for vulnerable<br />
community;<br />
Improve early warning system and<br />
informati<strong>on</strong> flow;<br />
Training and awareness raising <strong>on</strong> disaster<br />
risk reducti<strong>on</strong>;<br />
Increase flood preparedness activities (food<br />
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
removable cooking stoves Building str<strong>on</strong>g<br />
flood shelter<br />
Increase flood preparedness activities (food<br />
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
removable cooking stoves Building str<strong>on</strong>g<br />
flood shelter<br />
Instituti<strong>on</strong>s Issue Means<br />
General<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
Analytical<br />
and<br />
Human<br />
Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> program by local<br />
NGOs for vulnerable communities to<br />
provide healthservices as suggested<br />
Develop and implement instituti<strong>on</strong>al<br />
capacity building <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Local NGOs and<br />
communities. through c<strong>on</strong>ducting<br />
providing different trainings<br />
throughout project design and<br />
implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Instituti<strong>on</strong>al capacity building is necessary to facilitate and create enabling c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> to implement different<br />
types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> opti<strong>on</strong>s menti<strong>on</strong>ed above. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table provides different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> acti<strong>on</strong>s at<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>al and community levels.<br />
Table 9.4 Provides types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> interventi<strong>on</strong> to enhance adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the community<br />
Develop l<strong>on</strong>gitudinal disaggregated <strong>poverty</strong><br />
database al<strong>on</strong>g with different streams <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
income <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a household and their assets.<br />
Carryout training to enhance instituti<strong>on</strong>al<br />
and human capacity to analyze <strong>poverty</strong> in<br />
the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
Acti<strong>on</strong>s for<br />
Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Prepare new project<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Changes Needed in<br />
Planning Process<br />
97
10. In order to address adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> greenhouse gas emissi<strong>on</strong> in the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and nati<strong>on</strong>al ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s have been suggested by different<br />
stakeholders including <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in planning process while designing programs and projects by different<br />
ministries and departments in the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitive geographical regi<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se include short, medium and l<strong>on</strong>g<br />
term perspective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, create enabling c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> perspectives,<br />
ensure participati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> all relevant stakeholders particularly potential vulnerable communities to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
10.1 Incorporati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change<br />
It is revealed from a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> nati<strong>on</strong>al development policy, sectoral policies, strategies and acti<strong>on</strong> plan that<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> has received significant attenti<strong>on</strong>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se nati<strong>on</strong>al documents have also incorporated several<br />
acti<strong>on</strong>s related to mainstreaming and capacity building for adaptati<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
greenhouse gas emissi<strong>on</strong>. However, a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sectoral policies have not incorporated <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
C<strong>on</strong>sidering sense <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> urgency and level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, issues <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> need to be incorporated immediately. Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> as central policy making instituti<strong>on</strong><br />
should play a central role in initiating policy review toward incorporati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues in the policy,<br />
programme and project development. It should also maintaining synergy am<strong>on</strong>g policies, strategies, programme<br />
and acti<strong>on</strong>s by different actors. It may also initiate a process for regular review and update <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> policies, strategies<br />
and acti<strong>on</strong> plans in the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Learning from the implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different acti<strong>on</strong>s and<br />
measures by different stakeholders may create a basis for review and fine tuning <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> acti<strong>on</strong>s.<br />
C<strong>on</strong>sidering the time dimensi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, designing <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> any development programs/projects should<br />
incorporate short-term, medium-term and l<strong>on</strong>g-term <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> perspectives including extreme events and<br />
risk management. It is also important that <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth are c<strong>on</strong>nected with multiple sectors<br />
and need a multi-sectoral approach. C<strong>on</strong>sidering c<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> agriculture as key rural livelihoods, c<strong>on</strong>tributi<strong>on</strong><br />
to ec<strong>on</strong>omic and sensitivity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the sector to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, priority should be given to incorporate adverse<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> arising from <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and extreme events while designing development programs and projects in<br />
the agriculture sector.<br />
10.2 Creating Enabling C<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong><br />
Inter linkage am<strong>on</strong>g adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth is clear. However, there is<br />
a lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> quantitative analysis and assessment based <strong>on</strong> disagreed and l<strong>on</strong>gitudinal database. Quantitative<br />
analysis and assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong> by regi<strong>on</strong>s and<br />
livelihoods groups would facilitate formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> programme and projects for different sectors. It will also give<br />
clear picture <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> need for different sectors and livelihood groups as well as mitigati<strong>on</strong> potential. In<br />
order to carryout quantitative analysis and assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth by sectors and regi<strong>on</strong>s, a disaggregated and l<strong>on</strong>gitudinal database needs to be developed. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> database<br />
needs to include extent and severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> present and future <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors and livelihood groups. It<br />
will also facilitate medium and l<strong>on</strong>g term planning to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> into development process.<br />
Creati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> provisi<strong>on</strong> and giving priority to the programs and projects those will address <strong>poverty</strong>, ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issue together. Types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> projects may include research and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> resilient<br />
development giving emphasis <strong>on</strong> key sectors supporting livelihoods and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth; development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a<br />
comprehensive and dynamic land use plan and land z<strong>on</strong>ing c<strong>on</strong>sidering <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues including<br />
assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>; technology development and deployment for agriculture sector including scale up <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
local level innovative practices. This may also give priority to the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> resilient infrastructure development<br />
including building materials. Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> tools to assess <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and technology needs for<br />
all development program and projects to address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is necessary to enhance enabling capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
practiti<strong>on</strong>er.<br />
10.3 Ensure Participati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerable Communities and Local Need<br />
Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> are disproporti<strong>on</strong>ate and vary by geographical regi<strong>on</strong> and by sectors. Capacity to<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
99
address adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> also varies by livelihood groups and their socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
In order to capture c<strong>on</strong>text specificity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adapti<strong>on</strong> to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and technology needs for different sectors<br />
and livelihood groups, participati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> vulnerable communities in designing and implementati<strong>on</strong> and<br />
program and project is most important. Local level participati<strong>on</strong> will also identify future needs for research and<br />
development to meet local level needs.<br />
10.4 Role <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
Being a focal point for developing medium and l<strong>on</strong>g term plans for Bangladesh and facilitating key decisi<strong>on</strong><br />
making process <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh, GED needs to play an important role to address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and vulnerability in their planning process. Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> is formulating a Visi<strong>on</strong> Paper<br />
for Bangladesh and rightly placed to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in this paper. This paper should include latest<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> assessment and adaptati<strong>on</strong> needs to promote sustainable development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh.<br />
In additi<strong>on</strong>, to address the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues in policy and decisi<strong>on</strong> making activities <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong>, it has to improve its capability as well as facilitate other relevant ministries<br />
and departments. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following are major areas for immediate attenti<strong>on</strong> and acti<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Knowledge and Research<br />
Encourage and motivate relevant sectoral ministries and department to enhance existing research and initiate<br />
new research linking <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth;<br />
Develop disaggregated database <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth to facilitate quantitative<br />
analysis and assessment <strong>on</strong> inter-linkage am<strong>on</strong>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and<br />
designing different interventi<strong>on</strong>s to address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>;<br />
Facilitate development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a comprehensive landuse and land z<strong>on</strong>ing plan for proper utilizati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> land resources<br />
to support <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in a sustainable manner. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> land z<strong>on</strong>ing also should<br />
incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> as it will bring <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> physical envir<strong>on</strong>ment; and<br />
Support facilities for informati<strong>on</strong> gathering through scientific research, and made provisi<strong>on</strong> to support activities<br />
addressing <strong>poverty</strong>, ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> together.<br />
Capacity Building<br />
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> should setup a Climate Change Unit to enhance GED’s<br />
knowledge base. It should also build awareness and capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> staff <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> planning cell <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> every ministry and<br />
department.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> proposed <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> unit must coordinate with all relevant government agencies at all levels, including<br />
both vertical and horiz<strong>on</strong>tal while designing and implementing project;<br />
GED should made provisi<strong>on</strong> for financial support to enhance technical capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> other ministries and<br />
departments to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in development and implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> project.<br />
Policy Issues<br />
Initiating policy review toward incorporati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues in the policy, programme and project<br />
development;<br />
General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> (GED) will give priority to the programme and project addressing <strong>poverty</strong>, ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> together; GED should facilitate/expedite extensi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> available research knowledge<br />
and good practices/technologies addressing <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth together;<br />
GED should emphasize agriculture friendly planning process by incorporating CC <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
100<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
10.5 Immediate Projects for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
10.5.1 Enhance understanding and knowledge <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and development with special focus <strong>on</strong><br />
<strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
Objective<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> primary objectives <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the project are to enhance understanding and knowledge <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and<br />
development with special focus <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth, and identificati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> possible interventi<strong>on</strong>s to<br />
reduce adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> greenhouse gas emissi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Justificati<strong>on</strong><br />
Adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth is real now. About 40% people <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
country are living below <strong>poverty</strong> line and a large proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> human populati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country is at risk to<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and relevant extremes and shocks. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh has taken initiatives to<br />
address <strong>poverty</strong> through formulati<strong>on</strong> and implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> “Nati<strong>on</strong>al Strategy for Accelerated Poverty<br />
Reducti<strong>on</strong>” for the period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2009-2011. It has recognized need to address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> which needs enhance<br />
understanding to the extent and severity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the problem as well as possible interventi<strong>on</strong>s at project level. As a<br />
part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> medium and l<strong>on</strong>g term planning which is <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the key roles <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> enhanced understanding and linkage al<strong>on</strong>g with possible measures are key.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment (DoE) under the Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forests (MoEF) mainly deals with<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues at nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al levels al<strong>on</strong>g with its other mandates. A <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> cell<br />
has established under Comprehensive Disaster Management Programmes (CDMP) to meet gaps in research <strong>on</strong><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues and facilitate mainstreaming <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in nati<strong>on</strong>al and sectoral development.<br />
Moreover, many government and n<strong>on</strong>-government organizati<strong>on</strong>s are doing research <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues<br />
and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> at nati<strong>on</strong>al, regi<strong>on</strong>al and levels. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> (PC) under the Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning is the<br />
key instituti<strong>on</strong> for overall development including <strong>poverty</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country and therefore should take key<br />
role in mainstreaming <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> into development process. In order to play the key role in mainstreaming<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in nati<strong>on</strong>al and sectoral development, enhance understanding and knowledge <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and development including ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong> is necessary for General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Activities<br />
a) Establish a <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> cell in the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> with adequate<br />
trained pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essi<strong>on</strong>al;<br />
b) Develop a framework for c<strong>on</strong>tinued collecti<strong>on</strong> and compilati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> scenarios, <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
assessments and possible measures both in adaptati<strong>on</strong> and mitigati<strong>on</strong>;<br />
c) Synthesis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, vulnerabilities and possible adaptati<strong>on</strong> measures for different sectors and<br />
by geographical regi<strong>on</strong>al and by livelihoods groups;<br />
d) Develop a framework, methodology and tools for integrating <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> into Development Project<br />
Proposals (DPPs) and c<strong>on</strong>duct regular training for sectoral agencies;<br />
e) Coordinate all research related to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and development<br />
Timeline: Short-term<br />
Resp<strong>on</strong>sibility: General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong>, Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning<br />
10.5.2 Quantitative analysis and assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong><br />
by regi<strong>on</strong>s and livelihood groups<br />
Objective<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> primary objective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the project is to analyse and assess quantitative <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
growth and <strong>poverty</strong> by regi<strong>on</strong>s and livelihoods groups through development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a disaggregated database.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
101
Justificati<strong>on</strong><br />
Adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> are already visible and different sectors and livelihood groups are being<br />
impacted differently. Agriculture sector especially crop agriculture is highly being affected by extreme weather<br />
events and shocks and level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> will be more in future due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>. In<br />
additi<strong>on</strong>, water resources, <strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the key inputs to agriculture, will be impacted due to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Health<br />
services, educati<strong>on</strong>, industries especially small and medium industries, urban and rural infrastructure will also be<br />
affected by adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related extreme events. Ultimately different<br />
livelihood groups depending <strong>on</strong> these sectors will be impacted and overall ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the country will<br />
also face additi<strong>on</strong>al stress. It is also recognized that the poorest <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the poor will be affected hardest. However,<br />
there is lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> analysis based <strong>on</strong> disaggregated database <strong>on</strong> what extent and how <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong><br />
different sectors are affecting and will affect different livelihood groups. Several stakeholders suggested that<br />
quantificati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth and <strong>poverty</strong> is important to facilitate medium<br />
and l<strong>on</strong>g term planning to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> into development process.<br />
Activities<br />
a) Undertake a process to design framework, methodology and tools to collect disaggregated data <strong>on</strong> a<br />
c<strong>on</strong>tinuous basis and stored in a retrieval and relati<strong>on</strong>al database system;<br />
b) Undertake a process to develop an analytical framework to carryout periodical analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the situati<strong>on</strong> to<br />
facilitate decisi<strong>on</strong> making process;<br />
c) Develop a process to ensure c<strong>on</strong>tinued collecti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> disaggregated data; and<br />
d) Develop data base maintenance and sharing system am<strong>on</strong>g different relevant government and n<strong>on</strong>government<br />
research organizati<strong>on</strong>s.<br />
Timeline: Short-term<br />
Resp<strong>on</strong>sibility: Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning and Bangladesh Bureau <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Statistics.<br />
10.5.3 Capacity Enhancement <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning Cadre <strong>on</strong> Climate Change Issues<br />
Objective<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> primary objective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the capacity building <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the planning cadre <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues is integrating<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in designing program and project. It will promote implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> activities and<br />
building resilience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the vulnerable community to cope with <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> and reduce risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> declining<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth.<br />
Justificati<strong>on</strong><br />
Adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> different sectors supporting livelihoods and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth are<br />
unavoidable. Existing process for formulati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a program and project does not address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues<br />
and <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, it is important to enhance capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the planning cadre to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
as programme or project usually born in the planning cell <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a ministry or a department.<br />
Activities<br />
a) Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> capacity building training module <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>, vulnerability and adaptati<strong>on</strong>;<br />
b) Develop a framework including methodologies and tools to facilitate incorporati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in<br />
designing sector specific program and project; and<br />
c) Carryout training for planning cadre <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> key relevant ministries and departments.<br />
Timeline: Short-term<br />
Resp<strong>on</strong>sibility: Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Planning<br />
102<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong><br />
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11. Vulnerability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh to <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is well recognized due to its higher level <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> exposure to both<br />
the gradual <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> phenomen<strong>on</strong> and extreme events, and due to lack <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> instituti<strong>on</strong>al and financial capacity to<br />
deal with <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related problems as well. Changes in the climatic system and its associated adverse<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> are already visible. Changes in the durati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> seas<strong>on</strong>s, i.e. lengthening <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the summer seas<strong>on</strong> and<br />
shortening <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the winter seas<strong>on</strong>, shifting <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> mango flowering seas<strong>on</strong>; increase in the frequency <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> hazards;<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s in the rainfall pattern etc. are major indicators <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in Bangladesh.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> IPCC estimates that by 2050 rice producti<strong>on</strong> in Bangladesh could decline by 8% and wheat producti<strong>on</strong> by<br />
32% (against a base year <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 1990). If sea level rise is higher than currently expected and coastal polders are not<br />
strengthened and/or new <strong>on</strong>es built, six to eight milli<strong>on</strong> people could be displaced by 2050 and would have to<br />
be resettled. Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is likely to increase the incidence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water-borne and air-borne diseases. Bacteria,<br />
parasites and disease vectors breed faster in warmer and wetter c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s and where there is poor drainage<br />
and sanitati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> relati<strong>on</strong>ship between <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> and <strong>poverty</strong> is multi-dimensi<strong>on</strong>al and complex. For<br />
better understanding the complex relati<strong>on</strong>ship needs l<strong>on</strong>gitudinal disaggregated <strong>poverty</strong> database al<strong>on</strong>g with<br />
different streams <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> income <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a household and their assets. Strengthening <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> instituti<strong>on</strong>al and human capacity<br />
to analyse <strong>poverty</strong> in the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> is also needed. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> relati<strong>on</strong>ship between adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> with GDP growth is complex as well.<br />
It has been revealed that during and immediately after a disaster, the government, development partners, n<strong>on</strong>government<br />
organizati<strong>on</strong>s and the civil society place significant extra efforts to cope with the situati<strong>on</strong> and,<br />
therefore, by the next growing seas<strong>on</strong> there is additi<strong>on</strong>al output from the impacted sectors. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> direct annual<br />
cost to the nati<strong>on</strong>al ec<strong>on</strong>omy <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural disasters over the last 10 years (damage and loss in producti<strong>on</strong>) was<br />
estimated to be between 0.5% and 1% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> GDP. However, it is to be noted that nati<strong>on</strong>al expenditure increases to<br />
address a disaster or the cost is diverted from other sectoral activities. In future, increase in frequency and<br />
intensity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> natural disasters will put extra pressure <strong>on</strong> the nati<strong>on</strong>al ec<strong>on</strong>omy and it is likely that other sectors<br />
may suffer due to diverting <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> resources from <strong>on</strong>e sector to another sector.<br />
Different sectors are coping with <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> related adverse <str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g> but most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> them are reactive<br />
adaptati<strong>on</strong> measures. However, many <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the measures have potential to work as future adaptati<strong>on</strong> opti<strong>on</strong>s but<br />
we need evaluati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> their robustness under future <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>d c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s. Effective knowledge management and<br />
undertaking <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> new research will enhance capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different sectoral agencies to undertake adaptati<strong>on</strong> to<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in an efficient manner.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forests, Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh is the focal point for <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> at<br />
nati<strong>on</strong>al and internati<strong>on</strong>al level. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh has formulated the Bangladesh Climate Change<br />
Strategy and Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan 2008 as a living document to address <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> issues. In 2005, the Government<br />
also formulated the Nati<strong>on</strong>al Adaptati<strong>on</strong> Programme <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Acti<strong>on</strong> (NAPA) where the immediate and urgent needs <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
adaptati<strong>on</strong> have been identified.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan 2008 is built <strong>on</strong> six pillars <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> which five are related to<br />
impact management and <strong>on</strong>e is related to mitigati<strong>on</strong> through low carb<strong>on</strong> development. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se pillars are a) Food<br />
security, social protecti<strong>on</strong> and health, b) Comprehensive Disaster Management, c) Infrastructure, d) Research and<br />
knowledge management, e) Mitigati<strong>on</strong> and low carb<strong>on</strong> development and f ) Capacity building and instituti<strong>on</strong>al<br />
strengthening. It has suggested that the Climate Change Acti<strong>on</strong> Plan will be implemented under the overall<br />
guidance <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Nati<strong>on</strong>al Envir<strong>on</strong>ment Committee. It will be coordinated by the c<strong>on</strong>cerned Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forests. Programs funded under the Plan will be implemented by Ministries or their agencies,<br />
with the involvement, as appropriate, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> civil society and the private sector.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> strategy document revealed that the Bangladesh Government is committed to integrate and mainstream<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> into all aspects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> nati<strong>on</strong>al, sectoral and spatial development in the country. This will require: (a)<br />
incorporating <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> into policies, plans, programs and projects; (b) establishment and building the<br />
capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ministries and agencies so that they are able to do this (e.g., building <strong>on</strong> the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> cells in<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
105
each ministry); focusing, to start with, <strong>on</strong> those specific sectors, where <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> will be a key issue (e.g.,<br />
water, agriculture, food, disaster management, health, forests, energy and power, transport and communicati<strong>on</strong>,<br />
women affairs and Chittag<strong>on</strong>g Hill Tracts)<br />
Two <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>s are required in the process by which ministries and agencies prepare and submit proposals to the<br />
Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong>: the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong>, in c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong> with the Nati<strong>on</strong>al Steering Committee <strong>on</strong><br />
Climate Change and sectoral ministries, should introduce a set <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> designs and planning parameters for projects<br />
for selected target years (e.g. 2030, 2050 and 2100), which should take into account the likely <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>impacts</str<strong>on</strong>g>; the pro-formas, which the Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> requires for project proposals (TPP, PP etc.), designed to<br />
ensure that all elements for taking decisi<strong>on</strong>s for <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> resilience or <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> sensitivity are included and<br />
correctly reflected.<br />
Establishing and building the capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> cells in ministries and agencies to incorporate <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>siderati<strong>on</strong>s in all planning design and implementati<strong>on</strong> processes as a l<strong>on</strong>g-term measure is vital.<br />
Supporting implementati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the nati<strong>on</strong>al strategy and acti<strong>on</strong> plan, particularly in the area <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> food security,<br />
social protecti<strong>on</strong> and human health; infrastructure development; knowledge management and research; and,<br />
capacity building and instituti<strong>on</strong>al strengthening can be key areas for the General Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Divisi<strong>on</strong> in the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>poverty</strong> and ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth as a l<strong>on</strong>g term target.<br />
106<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Key Terminologies
12.1 Climate<br />
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average weather," or more rigorously, as the statistical<br />
descripti<strong>on</strong> in terms <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the mean and variability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> relevant quantities over a period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> time ranging from m<strong>on</strong>ths<br />
to thousands <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> years. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> classical period is 3 decades, as defined by the World Meteorological Organizati<strong>on</strong><br />
(WMO). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se quantities are most <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten surface variables such as temperature, precipitati<strong>on</strong>, and wind. Climate in<br />
a wider sense is the state, including a statistical descripti<strong>on</strong>, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> system.<br />
12.2 Climate Change<br />
Climate <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> refers to any <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> in <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nati<strong>on</strong>s Framework C<strong>on</strong>venti<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> Climate Change<br />
(UNFCCC), which defines "<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>" as: "a <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> which is attributed directly or indirectly to<br />
human activity that alters the compositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the global atmosphere and which is in additi<strong>on</strong> to natural <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
variability observed over comparable time periods." See also <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> variability.<br />
12.3 Climate System<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> system is the highly complex system c<strong>on</strong>sisting <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> five major comp<strong>on</strong>ents: the atmosphere, the<br />
hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface, and the biosphere, and the interacti<strong>on</strong>s between them. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> system evolves in time under the influence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> its own internal dynamics and because <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> external forcings<br />
such as volcanic erupti<strong>on</strong>s, solar variati<strong>on</strong>s and human-induced forcings such as the changing compositi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
atmosphere and land use.<br />
12.4 Climate Variability<br />
Climate variability refers to variati<strong>on</strong>s in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviati<strong>on</strong>s, the<br />
occurrence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> extremes, etc.) <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> all temporal and spatial scales bey<strong>on</strong>d that <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> individual weather<br />
events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> system (internal variability), or to<br />
variati<strong>on</strong>s in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
12.5 Extreme Weather Event<br />
An event that is rare within its statistical reference distributi<strong>on</strong> at a particular place. Definiti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> "rare" vary, but<br />
an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definiti<strong>on</strong>,<br />
the characteristics <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> what is called "extreme weather" may vary from place to place. An "extreme <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> event"<br />
is an average <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> weather events over a certain period <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g.,<br />
rainfall over a seas<strong>on</strong>).<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
109
1. Agrawala, S; Ota, T.; Ahmed, A.U.; Smith, J and Aalst, M. Van (2003). Development and Climate Change in<br />
Bangladesh: Focus <strong>on</strong> Coastal Flooding and the Sunderbans, 2003.<br />
2. Ahmed, A. U (2006) “Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability”, Published by Climate Change Cell, DoE,<br />
Bangladesh.<br />
3. Bangladesh Development Series “Bangladesh 2020” A L<strong>on</strong>g Term Perspective Study, 1998.<br />
4. Bangladesh Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Review, 2008<br />
5. BBS, (2007) “Bangladesh Bureau <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Statistics (BBS)”, Statistical year Book <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh”, 2007.<br />
6. BBS, (2008) “Bangladesh Bureau <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Statistics (BBS)”, Statistical year Book <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh”, 2008.<br />
7. Climate Change Cell, DoE (2007) “Climate Change and Bangladesh” published by DFID, <strong>UNDP</strong> and<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment, Bangladesh. September 2007<br />
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by Comprehensive Disaster Management Program (CDMP), <strong>UNDP</strong>.<br />
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by Comprehensive Disaster Management Program (CDMP), <strong>UNDP</strong>.<br />
10. Farashuddin, M., (2001). 'Bangladesh Development Agenda and Visi<strong>on</strong> 2020: Rhetoric or Reality?', <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Independent, April 29, Dhaka.<br />
11. GoB (2005). Nati<strong>on</strong>al Adaptati<strong>on</strong> Program <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Acti<strong>on</strong> (NAPA), Final report; November 2005; Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forest, Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> People’s Republic <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh (GoB) Dhaka.<br />
12. GoB (2008); “Cycl<strong>on</strong>e Sidr in Bangladesh Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment for Disaster Recovery and<br />
Rec<strong>on</strong>structi<strong>on</strong>”, A Report Prepared by the Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh Assisted by the Internati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
Development Community with Financial Support from the European Commissi<strong>on</strong>.<br />
13. GoB & FAO, (2004) <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Food Security Atlas <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh: Towards a Poverty and Hunger Free Bangladesh,<br />
Planning Divisi<strong>on</strong>, Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh and World Food Programme, United Nati<strong>on</strong>s, Dhaka,<br />
Bangladesh.<br />
14. Habibullah M., et.al. (1998) Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Food grain Producti<strong>on</strong> Loss Due to Climate Induced Soil Salinity: A<br />
Case Study, in Vulnerability and Adaptati<strong>on</strong> to Climate Change for Bangladesh, S. Huq, Z. Karim, M.<br />
Asaduzzaman and F. Mahtab (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Netherlands, 1998. pp 51-66.<br />
15. Hasan, Faruque, (2008); Bangladesh drowning: A reality or a myth? Published in <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Daily Star <strong>on</strong> 01<br />
November 2008.<br />
16. Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World.<br />
17. ICIMOD & UNEP (2007); Impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial Lakes: Case Studies <strong>on</strong><br />
GLOF and Associated Hazards in Nepal and Bhutan, ICIMOD & UNEP, June 2007.<br />
18. Karim et. al (1999) Vulnerability and Adaptati<strong>on</strong> to Climate Change for Bangladesh, Kluwer Academic<br />
publishers, Dordrecht<br />
19. Karim, Z. (1996) Agricultural Vulnerability and Poverty Alleviati<strong>on</strong> in Bangladesh. In Climate Change and<br />
World Food Security, T.E. Downing (Ed.), NATO ASI Series, 137. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Hiedelberg, 1996. pp.<br />
307-346.<br />
110<br />
References<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
20. MoEF (2005). Nati<strong>on</strong>al Adaptati<strong>on</strong> program <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Acti<strong>on</strong> (NAPA), Final report; November 2005; Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Envir<strong>on</strong>ment and Forest, Government <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> People’s Republic <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh (GoB) Dhaka, 48p.<br />
21. Rahman, A. & Alam, M. (2003). “Mainstreaming Adaptati<strong>on</strong> to Climate Change in least Developed Countries<br />
(LDCs), Working paper II, Bangladesh Country case Study, IIED, L<strong>on</strong>d<strong>on</strong>, UK.<br />
22. Rashid, (1991) “Geography <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bangladesh”, <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> University Press Limited, Dhaka, Bangladesh.<br />
23. SMRC, (2003). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vulnerability Assessment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the SAARC Coastal Regi<strong>on</strong> due to Sea LevelRise: Bangladesh<br />
Case, SMRC-No.3, SMRC Publicati<strong>on</strong>, Dhaka, Bangladesh<br />
24. SMRC, (1998) “<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Tropical Cycl<strong>on</strong>es <strong>on</strong> the Coastal Regi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> SAARC Countries and <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>ir<br />
Influence in the Regi<strong>on</strong>”, SMRC-No.1, SMRC Publicati<strong>on</strong>, Dhaka, Bangladesh<br />
25. World Bank (1997). “World Development Report, 1997”. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> State in a Changing World, Oxford University<br />
Press, Inc., 200 Madis<strong>on</strong> Avenue, new York, N.Y. 10016, USA.<br />
26. http://www.localfooddirectory.ca/foodshed/?q=node/490 accessed <strong>on</strong> 06 November 2008.<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
111
Annex A<br />
List <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Key Experts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> different sectors that have been interviewed<br />
Sl<br />
No.<br />
Name and Designati<strong>on</strong> Sector Detail C<strong>on</strong>tact Informati<strong>on</strong><br />
1 Dr. Abu Wali Raghib Hassan<br />
Sub-comp<strong>on</strong>ent Manager<br />
(Nati<strong>on</strong>al Project Director)<br />
Livelihood Adaptati<strong>on</strong> to<br />
ClimateChange (LACC-II) Project<br />
Room No. 403, 3 rd floor, 1 st Building, Department<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agriculture Extensi<strong>on</strong> (DAE) Khamarbari,<br />
Farmgate, Dhaka-1215<br />
Cell: 01552312600,<br />
Email: hassan58_dae@yahoo.com<br />
2 Dr. A.K.M.Farhad<br />
Project Director<br />
GUTI UREA PROGRAM<br />
Field Service Wing<br />
3<br />
Dr. Md. Abdus Salam<br />
Chief Scientific<br />
Officer and Head Agr<strong>on</strong>omy<br />
Divisi<strong>on</strong>Bangladesh Institute <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Nuclear Agriculture (BINA)<br />
4 Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Dr. ShahMohammad Ullah<br />
Chairman<br />
5<br />
6<br />
7<br />
112<br />
Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor Dr. M. Ali Akbar<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Animal Husbandry<br />
Dr. M. Shahabuddin Khan<br />
Chief Scientific Officer & Head<br />
Dr. M A Salam<br />
Director (Research)<br />
Crop Agriculture<br />
Room No. 401, 3 rd floor, 2nd Building Department<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Agriculture Extensi<strong>on</strong> (DAE)Khamarbari,<br />
Farmgate, Dhaka-1215<br />
P.O. Box-4, Mymensingh-2200<br />
Tel: +88-091-54401-2, Ext. 307 (Off)<br />
+88-091-52960<br />
Cell: 01711938290<br />
Fax: +88-091-54091<br />
Email: drmasalam@yahoo.com<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Soil, Water and Envir<strong>on</strong>ment<br />
University <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Dhaka, Dhaka.<br />
Tel: 9661920-59, Ext. 6132 (Off), 9664988(Res)<br />
Cell: 01190337632<br />
Fax: (880-2) 8615583<br />
Email: smullah_du@yahoo.com<br />
Bangladesh Agricultural University,Mymensingh-<br />
2200<br />
Tel: 091-52030 (Direct). 55695-7/2600 (Office)<br />
091-54055 (Res.)<br />
Fax: 091-55810<br />
Cell: 01715-004752<br />
Email: maakbar52@yahoo.com<br />
SoilScience Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
BARI, Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701<br />
Tel: 880-2-9256403 (Off) 880-2-8060903,<br />
8034740 (Res)<br />
Email: ssdbari@dhaka.net,<br />
cso.soil@bari.gov.bd<br />
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI),<br />
Gazipur 1701, Dhaka.<br />
Tel: 9252429 (Off)<br />
Mobile: 01711595577<br />
Fax: 88-02-9261110<br />
Email: salam_brri@yahoo.com<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Sl<br />
No.<br />
Name and Designati<strong>on</strong> Sector Detail C<strong>on</strong>tact Informati<strong>on</strong><br />
8 Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>.Dr. M. A.Sattar<br />
Bangladesh Agricultural University,<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
Mymensingh -2202<br />
Envir<strong>on</strong>mental Science<br />
Tel: (091)55695-7/2608 (Off), (091)<br />
53927 (Res.)<br />
Mobile: 01711855366<br />
Fax: +88-091-55810<br />
Email: sattarenvs@yahoo.com<br />
9 Dr. Rafiqul Islam<br />
Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor<br />
10 Dr. Jahiruddin<br />
Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor<br />
11 Dr. Badirul Islam<br />
Chief Scientific Officer (OFRD)<br />
12 Dr. M. Sirajul Islam<br />
Chief Scientific Officer<br />
(Physiology)<br />
13 Dr. M. K. Basher<br />
Chief Scientific Officer (Breeding)<br />
14 Mr. Jalal uddin Md. Shoel<br />
Chief Scientific Officer (CSO)<br />
15 Mr. Kabel Hossain Dewan<br />
Chief Scientific Officer (CSO)<br />
16 Shaikh Siraj<br />
Director and Founding Member<br />
Crop Agriculture<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Soil Science<br />
Bangladesh Agricultural University<br />
Mymensingh-2202<br />
Tel: 091-55695-7 Ext. 2420 (Off)<br />
Fax: 091-55810<br />
Email: m_jahiruddin@yahoo.com<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Soil Science<br />
Bangladesh Agricultural University<br />
Mymensingh-2202 Tel: 091-55695-7<br />
Ext. 2420 (Off) Fax: 091-55810<br />
Email: m_jahiruddin@yahoo.com<br />
BangladeshAgriculture Research Institute<br />
(BARI), Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701, Dhaka.<br />
Cell: 01199100909<br />
Email: <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>rdjoy@yahoo.com<br />
BangladeshRice Research Institute (BRRI),<br />
Gazipur -1701,Dhaka.<br />
Tel: 9257517 (<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f)<br />
Email: msislam52@yahoo.com<br />
BangladeshRice Research Institute (BRRI),<br />
Gazipur -1701,Dhaka.<br />
Cell: 01711283982<br />
Email: mkbasher.brri@yahoo.com<br />
Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI),<br />
Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215<br />
Cell: 01716048256<br />
Fax: 9110844<br />
Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI),<br />
Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215<br />
Tel: 9127674<br />
Cell: 01918610026<br />
Fax: 9110844<br />
Channel I, Dhaka<br />
113
Sl<br />
No.<br />
Name and Designati<strong>on</strong> Sector Detail C<strong>on</strong>tact Informati<strong>on</strong><br />
17 Dr. Shahjahan Ali Khandaker<br />
Ministry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fisheries & Livestock (MOFL)<br />
Deputy Chief<br />
Bangladesh Secretariat, Dhaka<br />
Tel: 7169564<br />
Cell: 01712200932<br />
18 Mr. Joarder Shibendra Nath<br />
Deputy Chief<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fisheries (DOF)<br />
Matshaya Bhaban,Ramna, Dhaka<br />
Tel:- 9567216<br />
19 Dr. M.A. Mazid<br />
Director General<br />
20 Dr. M.A. Wahab<br />
Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor<br />
Limnology &Aquaculture<br />
21 Dr. Md. Giasuddin Khan<br />
Senior Fisheries Scientist<br />
22 Dr. Md. Ebadul Haque<br />
Principal Scientific Officer<br />
(Training)<br />
23 Mr. AKM Shamsuddin<br />
Chief C<strong>on</strong>servator <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Forest (CCF)<br />
24 Mr. Abul kalam<br />
Deputy C<strong>on</strong>servator <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Forests<br />
25 Mr. Md. Nurul Islam<br />
Chief Engineer<br />
114<br />
Fisheries and Livestock<br />
Forest<br />
BangladeshFisheries Research Institute<br />
Mymensingh<br />
Cell: 01711-544919<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fisheries Management<br />
Faculty <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fisheries<br />
Bangladesh Agriculture University (BAU)<br />
Mymensingh<br />
Cell : 01715099156<br />
World Fish Center<br />
House # 22B, Road # 7, Block- F,Banani, Dhaka.<br />
Tel.: 8813250,8814624<br />
Cell: 01711392292<br />
E-mail: g.khan@cgiar.org<br />
Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute<br />
(BLRI)<br />
Savar, Dhaka<br />
Tel: 7791685 (<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>f.)<br />
Cell: 01712142110<br />
Ban Bhaban, Agarga<strong>on</strong>,Sher-e-Bangla<br />
Nagar, Dhaka-1207<br />
Tel:- 8118671<br />
Planning Wing<br />
Ban Bhaban, Agarga<strong>on</strong>, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar,<br />
Dhaka-1207<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Local Government and<br />
Engineering, LGED Bhaban (Level 5),<br />
Agarga<strong>on</strong>,Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka-1207.<br />
Tel: 8114804,8116817<br />
Fax: 8113144,8116390<br />
Cell: 01711566370<br />
E-mail: nislam48@yahoo.com,<br />
nislam51@hotmail.com<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Sl<br />
No.<br />
Name and Designati<strong>on</strong> Sector Detail C<strong>on</strong>tact Informati<strong>on</strong><br />
26 Mr. Md Reazuddin<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment (DoE)<br />
Director (Technical - 1)<br />
Paribesh Bhaban (2ndfloor)<br />
E-16, Agarga<strong>on</strong>, Dhaka-1207<br />
Tel.: 9115120 (Off.)<br />
Fax: 9118682<br />
Cell: 01678120996<br />
E-mail: reaz@doe-bd.org<br />
27 Mr. Md. Mujibur Rahman<br />
Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor<br />
28 Mr. M. Aminul Islam<br />
Assistant Country Director (ACD)<br />
29 Mr. Abu Most<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>a Kamal Uddin<br />
Programme Manager (Climate<br />
Change Cell)<br />
30 Mr. A. K.M. Khorshed Alam<br />
Joint Chief<br />
31 Ms. Hosne Ara Begum<br />
Joint Chief (Infrastructure<br />
Divisi<strong>on</strong>)<br />
32 Ms. Saleha Khatun<br />
Joint Chief (Industry Divisi<strong>on</strong>)<br />
Industry and Infrastructure<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh<br />
Dept. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Civil Engineering<br />
3rd Floor, Civil Engineering Building<br />
BUET, Dhaka-1000.<br />
Fax: 9663695<br />
Cell: 01713002904<br />
Envir<strong>on</strong>ment & Sustainable, Development,<br />
<strong>UNDP</strong> Bangladesh<br />
18thFloor, IDB Bhaban, Agarga<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.<br />
G.P.O Box 224,Dhaka-1000.<br />
Tel: 8118600, Ext.-2464<br />
Fax: 8113196<br />
Cell: 01818260741<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>ment (DoE)<br />
Paribesh Bhaban (4th Floor)<br />
Room # 514, E-16, Agarga<strong>on</strong><br />
Sher-e-Bangla Nagar,Dhaka-1207.<br />
Email: kamal.uddin@cdmp.org.bd<br />
GED, Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong><br />
Room-24, Block-14<br />
Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong> Agarga<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.<br />
Cell: 01199104412<br />
E-mail: akmkal@yahoo.com<br />
Room-18, Block-4<br />
Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong><br />
Agarga<strong>on</strong>, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.<br />
Tel: 8114706<br />
Fax: 9127230<br />
Room- 18, Block-3<br />
Planning Commissi<strong>on</strong><br />
Agarga<strong>on</strong>, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar,Dhaka.<br />
Tel: 8114709<br />
E-mail: salehakhatun45@yahoo.com<br />
115
Sl.<br />
No.<br />
Name and Designati<strong>on</strong> Sector Detail C<strong>on</strong>tact Informati<strong>on</strong><br />
33 Mr. Abdul Quyum<br />
Water Development Board (BWDB)<br />
Additi<strong>on</strong>al Chief Engineer<br />
Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000<br />
Mob : 01552-402328<br />
34 Mr. Giasuddin Ahmed<br />
Chowdhury<br />
Executive Director, CEGIS<br />
35 Dr. Ainun Nishat<br />
Country Representative<br />
36 Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor Sk. Akhtar Ahmed<br />
Head <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the Department<br />
37 Mr.Sirajul Islam<br />
Envir<strong>on</strong>mental, Microbiologist<br />
38 Mr. Md. Ihtishamul Huq<br />
Superintendent Engineer<br />
Ground Water Circle<br />
39 Mr. Md. Azizul Haq<br />
Director in Charge<br />
40 Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>. Nazrul Islam<br />
Chairman<br />
41 Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Jihadul Karim<br />
Member<br />
42 Dr. Al-Amin<br />
Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor & Director<br />
43 Dr. Saleh Uddin Ahmed<br />
Director<br />
116<br />
Water and Sanitati<strong>on</strong><br />
Health<br />
Educati<strong>on</strong><br />
Academicians<br />
House No.6, Road No. 23/C<br />
Gulshan-1, Dhaka<br />
Tel.: 8821570-2<br />
IUCN-Bangladesh<br />
House 11, Road 138, Gulshan 1<br />
Dhaka 1212<br />
Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Occupati<strong>on</strong>al and Envir<strong>on</strong>mental<br />
Health, NIPSOM<br />
Mohakhali, Dhaka<br />
Tel.: 8821236, 9898798<br />
E-Mail: nipsom@dhaka.net<br />
Dept. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Envir<strong>on</strong>mental Microbiology ICDDR,B,<br />
Mohakhali, Dhaka<br />
Tel.: 8811751-60 (2407)<br />
E-mail : sislam@icddrb.org<br />
DPHE, DPHE Bhavan,<br />
14 Shaheed Captain Mansur Ali Sarani, Kakrail,<br />
Dhaka-1000<br />
Tel.: 9343358<br />
E-mail : ce@dphe.gov.bd<br />
CAMPE<br />
5/14, Humayun Road<br />
Mohammadpur, Dhaka-1207<br />
Tel.: 9130427, 8115769, 8155031-2<br />
E-mail : azia@campebd.org<br />
University Grant Commissi<strong>on</strong> (UGC) Sher-e-<br />
Bangal Nagar, Agarga<strong>on</strong>, Dhaka-1207<br />
Tel.: 8112629, 8124133<br />
E-mail: chairman@yahoo.com<br />
University Grant Commissi<strong>on</strong> (UGC)<br />
Sher-e-Bangal Nagar<br />
Agarga<strong>on</strong>, Dhaka-1207<br />
Cell: 017113031335<br />
Institute <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Forestry and Envir<strong>on</strong>mental Sciences<br />
Chittag<strong>on</strong>g University,<br />
Chittag<strong>on</strong>g 4331, Bangladesh<br />
Ph<strong>on</strong>e: 0088 031 714914 (<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fice)<br />
Cell : 0088 01819820184 (pers<strong>on</strong>al)<br />
E-mail: pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>.alamin@yahoo.com<br />
Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute<br />
Bangladesh Agricultural University Campus<br />
Mymensingh, Bangladesh<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Exposed<br />
Systems<br />
Health Fogginess<br />
Disaster Risk<br />
Reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
(DRR)<br />
94<br />
Exposed to Means <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Reducti<strong>on</strong><br />
Flood, water<br />
logging<br />
9.4 Instituti<strong>on</strong>al Capacity Building<br />
Ensure pure/safe drinking water Establish<br />
health centre and need skilled doctors<br />
Preventi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> water borne diseases<br />
Installati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> community based sanitary<br />
latrines at flood free places<br />
Need based effective training for vulnerable<br />
community;<br />
Improve early warning system and<br />
informati<strong>on</strong> flow;<br />
Training and awareness raising <strong>on</strong> disaster<br />
risk reducti<strong>on</strong>;<br />
Increase flood preparedness activities (food<br />
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
removable cooking stoves Building str<strong>on</strong>g<br />
flood shelter<br />
Increase flood preparedness activities (food<br />
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introducti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
removable cooking stoves Building str<strong>on</strong>g<br />
flood shelter<br />
Instituti<strong>on</strong>s Issue Means<br />
General<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
Divisi<strong>on</strong><br />
Analytical<br />
and<br />
Human<br />
Acti<strong>on</strong>s for Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Development <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> program by local<br />
NGOs for vulnerable communities to<br />
provide healthservices as suggested<br />
Develop and implement instituti<strong>on</strong>al<br />
capacity building <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Local NGOs and<br />
communities. through c<strong>on</strong>ducting<br />
providing different trainings<br />
throughout project design and<br />
implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Instituti<strong>on</strong>al capacity building is necessary to facilitate and create enabling c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> to implement different<br />
types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adaptati<strong>on</strong> opti<strong>on</strong>s menti<strong>on</strong>ed above. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> following table provides different types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> acti<strong>on</strong>s at<br />
instituti<strong>on</strong>al and community levels.<br />
Table 9.4 Provides types <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> interventi<strong>on</strong> to enhance adaptive capacity <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the community<br />
Develop l<strong>on</strong>gitudinal disaggregated <strong>poverty</strong><br />
database al<strong>on</strong>g with different streams <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
income <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a household and their assets.<br />
Carryout training to enhance instituti<strong>on</strong>al<br />
and human capacity to analyze <strong>poverty</strong> in<br />
the c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>change</str<strong>on</strong>g>.<br />
Acti<strong>on</strong>s for<br />
Implementati<strong>on</strong><br />
Prepare new project<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Probable Impacts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change <strong>on</strong> Poverty and Ec<strong>on</strong>omic Growth and<br />
the Opti<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Coping with adverse Effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Climate Change in Bangladesh