Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future
Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future
Russia on the moveA short, victorious war against corruption?What for?Well prepared campaign with media supportAnatoly Serdyukov as a sacrificial lambSocial-Darwinism in practiceGoals: to demoralize and consolidate the elites in order to let Putin more room formaneuver; to raise Putin’s legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Russians; to feed new‘hungry’ elites.Just to increase Putin’s control over bureaucracyRussia in 2012 Transparency International rating
Russia-2025Scenarios for the futureOptimistic scenario - Modernization from above : Putin - modernizer.Putin starts reforming the system to minimize risks of transfer of power.Political liberalization and institutional reforms.Pessimistic scenario - Modernization from below : Putin – Shmutin.Vicious circle of phases ‘Order, Putin’s style’ – ‘Democracy, Yeltsin’s style’without strengthening institutions.Realistic scenario - reactive Modernization : neither Putin nor anotherPutin. Business-political elites understand that Putin is an obstacle ratherthan an asset and start his replacement. The only way is to share hispower, which needs strengthening institutions.
- Page 1: Russia-2025: Scenarios for theFutur
- Page 4 and 5: Institutions-substitutionsFive weak
- Page 7 and 8: Basics of OMDBasics of the Overmana
- Page 9 and 10: OMD-limitsSystem’s mechanical cha
- Page 11 and 12: OMD-limitsTroubles with decision-ma
- Page 13 and 14: Politics2012 emasculated political
- Page 15: Russia on the moveA short, victorio
- Page 19 and 20: Russia-2020Russia in 2020: scenario
- Page 22 and 23: Davos Scenario Framework
- Page 24 and 25: Russia-2025Alternative scenarios
<strong>Russia</strong>-<strong>2025</strong><strong>Scenarios</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> futureOptimistic scenario - Modernization from above : Putin - modernizer.Putin starts re<strong>for</strong>ming <strong>the</strong> system to minimize risks of transfer of power.Political liberalization and institutional re<strong>for</strong>ms.Pessimistic scenario - Modernization from below : Putin – Shmutin.Vicious circle of phases ‘Order, Putin’s style’ – ‘Democracy, Yeltsin’s style’without streng<strong>the</strong>ning institutions.Realistic scenario - reactive Modernization : nei<strong>the</strong>r Putin nor ano<strong>the</strong>rPutin. Business-political elites understand that Putin is an obstacle ra<strong>the</strong>rthan an asset and start his replacement. The only way is to share hispower, which needs streng<strong>the</strong>ning institutions.
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