Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future

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Russia on the moveA short, victorious war against corruption?What for?Well prepared campaign with media supportAnatoly Serdyukov as a sacrificial lambSocial-Darwinism in practiceGoals: to demoralize and consolidate the elites in order to let Putin more room formaneuver; to raise Putin’s legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Russians; to feed new‘hungry’ elites.Just to increase Putin’s control over bureaucracyRussia in 2012 Transparency International rating
Russia-2025Scenarios for the futureOptimistic scenario - Modernization from above : Putin - modernizer.Putin starts reforming the system to minimize risks of transfer of power.Political liberalization and institutional reforms.Pessimistic scenario - Modernization from below : Putin – Shmutin.Vicious circle of phases ‘Order, Putin’s style’ – ‘Democracy, Yeltsin’s style’without strengthening institutions.Realistic scenario - reactive Modernization : neither Putin nor anotherPutin. Business-political elites understand that Putin is an obstacle ratherthan an asset and start his replacement. The only way is to share hispower, which needs strengthening institutions.
Page 1: Russia-2025: Scenarios for theFutur
Page 4 and 5: Institutions-substitutionsFive weak
Page 7 and 8: Basics of OMDBasics of the Overmana
Page 9 and 10: OMD-limitsSystem’s mechanical cha
Page 11 and 12: OMD-limitsTroubles with decision-ma
Page 13 and 14: Politics2012 emasculated political
Page 15: Russia on the moveA short, victorio
Page 19 and 20: Russia-2020Russia in 2020: scenario
Page 22 and 23: Davos Scenario Framework
Page 24 and 25: Russia-2025Alternative scenarios

Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future

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