Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future

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From the „federation of corporations“ back to the “federation of regions”Center-regions relationship in 2000s, dynamicsRegionsThe CenterUnited Russia bad results atthe Duma elections2000Federal reform: federaldistricts, new scheme of theFederation Councilformation, State councilDeregionalization of the FederationCouncilRestoration of horizontal rotations offederal officials (struggle for MVD)The weakening of the fiscal federalismTermination of bilateral agreementswith the regions2005‘Beslan’ package: switch toappointing governors, newsystem of the State DumaelectionsThe unification of the forms ofpolitical organization in regions2011RegionsRegions enlargementExpanding of the practice ofappointing governors –“varangians”Reform of the localgovernment and thedismantling of mayoralelectionsReturn to direct elections ofgovernors;Establishment of the Ministry for theFar East development;New system ofthe Federation Council formationThe State Council 07/17/12‘+’ UnitedRussiaprimaries;Kozak’s andKhloponin’sworking groups2012‘-’ The law onhorizontalrotation of federalofficials inregions, largescale rotation inthe InteriorMinistry
Russia on the moveA short, victorious war against corruption?Anti-corruption crescendo:• Oboronservis + (2010) (Serdyukov) > 6.7 billion RUR;• Russian Space Systems/ GLONASS (2009-2010) (Ivanov) > 6.5 billion RUR;• APEC summit in Vladivostok and Minregionrazvitiya (Shuvalov) 2008-2012– 93 million RUR;• Minzdravsocrazvitiya 2011 – 250 million RUR;• Minenergo 2011-2012 – 90 million RUR;• ‘Stankoimport’ 2004 – 2.5 billion RUR;• System utilities in St. Petersburg 2011 – 3 billion RUR;,• Rosagrolizing 2007-2009 (Skrynnik) – 39 billion RUR;• Rostelecom 2011 - 100 million RUR
Page 1: Russia-2025: Scenarios for theFutur
Page 4 and 5: Institutions-substitutionsFive weak
Page 7 and 8: Basics of OMDBasics of the Overmana
Page 9 and 10: OMD-limitsSystem’s mechanical cha
Page 11 and 12: OMD-limitsTroubles with decision-ma
Page 13: Politics2012 emasculated political
Page 17 and 18: Russia-2025Scenarios for the future
Page 19 and 20: Russia-2020Russia in 2020: scenario
Page 22 and 23: Davos Scenario Framework
Page 24 and 25: Russia-2025Alternative scenarios

Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future

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