Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future
Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future Russia-2025: Scenarios for the Future
OMD-limitsWeak feedback• Weak political parties and the parliament• Strong state control over major media• Regional interests are almost not represented at thefederal center• It takes too long for a signal to go to the very topthrough various filters and to come back
OMD-limitsTroubles with decision-making• Absence of formal formats to represent interests of major elite clans and tofind a compromise• bilateral rather than multilateral communication,• matter of time,• tactical rather than strategic,• no way to make a logical chain of election/ reformsNone of serious decisions where interests of differentelite groups overlap has been made recently once andforeverPension reform; political reform – 2011;Cases: Rosneftegaz…
- Page 1: Russia-2025: Scenarios for theFutur
- Page 4 and 5: Institutions-substitutionsFive weak
- Page 7 and 8: Basics of OMDBasics of the Overmana
- Page 9: OMD-limitsSystem’s mechanical cha
- Page 13 and 14: Politics2012 emasculated political
- Page 15 and 16: Russia on the moveA short, victorio
- Page 17 and 18: Russia-2025Scenarios for the future
- Page 19 and 20: Russia-2020Russia in 2020: scenario
- Page 22 and 23: Davos Scenario Framework
- Page 24 and 25: Russia-2025Alternative scenarios
OMD-limitsTroubles with decision-making• Absence of <strong>for</strong>mal <strong>for</strong>mats to represent interests of major elite clans and tofind a compromise• bilateral ra<strong>the</strong>r than multilateral communication,• matter of time,• tactical ra<strong>the</strong>r than strategic,• no way to make a logical chain of election/ re<strong>for</strong>msNone of serious decisions where interests of differentelite groups overlap has been made recently once and<strong>for</strong>everPension re<strong>for</strong>m; political re<strong>for</strong>m – 2011;Cases: Rosneftegaz…
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