addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans
addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans addressing climate change adaptation in regional transportation plans
Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsWhat is the Significance of Changes inExtreme Climate?The type and frequency of extreme eventsare expected to change at the global scaleand can occur even with small changes inclimate means.Shifts in mean climate conditions canexacerbate extreme conditions resulting inhigher, more frequent, and more prolongedheat waves, greater flooding and erosionimpacts of coastal storm surges, and shifts inwatershed runoff and timing. In planning foradapting transportation infrastructure to thechanging climate, trends in extreme eventswill play a major role in understanding therisk to transportation assets.Source: Mastrandrea et al., 2009. Precipitation projections show more variabilitybetween models and emission scenarios. Ingeneral, longer dry spells will become morecommon with occasional intense rainfall events. Occasional intense rainfall events will continueto occur, with no significant change in the trend ofprojected frequency of heavy precipitation events. The frequency of large coastal storms andheavy precipitation events does not appear tochange significantly over the 21 st century.However, storms will still impact the coast moreseverely due to higher sea levels that can result inhigher storm surges, more extensive inlandflooding, and increased erosion.3.3 CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOMODELINGWhat is the Difference between a ClimateProjection and a Prediction?Due to the inherent uncertainty in theevolution of global economic and technologicfactors future climate scenarios representprojections, rather than predictions, of futureclimate conditions. Projections consider arange of plausible pathways in globalresource use (emissions), differences inglobal climate models, and varying estimatesof climate sensitivity to emissionconcentrations. This range represents thedistribution of uncertainty in the many toolsused to project future climate conditions.The range and timing of climate changeimpacts under a variety of possible futureconditions provides a spectrum of climatechange risk which serves as the basis foradaptation planning.Predicting human-induced changes in climate overthe next 100 years requires: A prediction of global GHG emissions for thenext century. A global carbon cycle model to convert theseemissions into changes in carbon dioxideconcentrations (and similar models for calculatingconcentrations of other GHG and aerosols). A general circulation model (GCM), which usesthe GHG and aerosol concentration information toproject future climate variations. Downscaling of the GCM results to a regionallevel through a procedure which takes account ofthe influence of topography on local climate. Thiscan be done either statistically or with a higherresolution regional climate model (RCM).3-6 Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsGlobal GHG Emission ScenariosThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed differentscenarios of change in GHG and sulfate aerosol emissions for use in globalclimate modeling efforts in its Special Report on Emission Scenarios(Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). These scenarios are grouped in four categories,or storylines, based on different assumptions about demographic, social,economic, technological, and environmental change. All the scenarios areconsidered equally probable. The emission scenarios presently used in the 2009California Climate Change Scenarios Assessment (Cayan et al., 2009) (Figure 3.4)are presented below.Figure 3.4Global Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrationand Carbon EmissionsSource: Cayan et al., 2009.Note: The global carbon emissions (gigatonnes of carbon, GtC) are shown by bars. The atmospheric carbondioxide (CO2) concentration (parts per million, volume, or ppmv) is shown by lines. The bars represent thehistorical period (black), SRES B1 (blue), and SRES A2 (red) emissions scenarios. The black squarerepresents the present day (2008) atmospheric concentration (386 ppmv).Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 3-7
- Page 1: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 7: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 13 and 14: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 15: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 20 and 21: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 22 and 23: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 24 and 25: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 26 and 27: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 28 and 29: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 30 and 31: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 32 and 33: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 35 and 36: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 37 and 38: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 39: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 43 and 44: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 45 and 46: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 47: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 50 and 51: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 52 and 53: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 54 and 55: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 56 and 57: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 58 and 59: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 61 and 62: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 63 and 64: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 65: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 68 and 69: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 70 and 71: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 72 and 73: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 75 and 76: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 77 and 78: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 79 and 80: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 81 and 82: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 83: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 86 and 87: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
- Page 88 and 89: Addressing Climate Change Adaptatio
Address<strong>in</strong>g Climate Change Adaptation <strong>in</strong> Regional Transportation PlansA Guide for California MPOs and RTPAsGlobal GHG Emission ScenariosThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed differentscenarios of <strong>change</strong> <strong>in</strong> GHG and sulfate aerosol emissions for use <strong>in</strong> global<strong>climate</strong> model<strong>in</strong>g efforts <strong>in</strong> its Special Report on Emission Scenarios(Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). These scenarios are grouped <strong>in</strong> four categories,or storyl<strong>in</strong>es, based on different assumptions about demographic, social,economic, technological, and environmental <strong>change</strong>. All the scenarios areconsidered equally probable. The emission scenarios presently used <strong>in</strong> the 2009California Climate Change Scenarios Assessment (Cayan et al., 2009) (Figure 3.4)are presented below.Figure 3.4Global Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrationand Carbon EmissionsSource: Cayan et al., 2009.Note: The global carbon emissions (gigatonnes of carbon, GtC) are shown by bars. The atmospheric carbondioxide (CO2) concentration (parts per million, volume, or ppmv) is shown by l<strong>in</strong>es. The bars represent thehistorical period (black), SRES B1 (blue), and SRES A2 (red) emissions scenarios. The black squarerepresents the present day (2008) atmospheric concentration (386 ppmv).Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 3-7
Change language